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HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Company


bmichaud

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This one's hitting multi-year lows. Anyone buying? Like RIM, there used to be a lot of chatter about this one a few months ago, but now it's mostly gone. I'm curious to know if despite the silence some people here still view this one as a good value? (I'm not buying -- don't care much for the business and can't trust management at all)

 

And some news: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/hewlett-packard-said-to-consider-cutting-as-many-as-25-000-jobs.html

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Insults fly over troubled HP buyout

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd61a91a-a5b8-11e1-b77a-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1vphlAeuC

 

It emerged on Thursday that an estimated 25 per cent of Autonomy’s staff had preceded Mr Lynch out of the door. Former employees said the departures included all of its senior management and a large number of developers.

...

 

Former Autonomy staff cited a “stifling” and bureaucratic HP culture that had made it difficult to get things done. One said an endless series of conference calls and form-filling felt “like being water-boarded”.

 

That portrayal was disputed by people close to HP who said Mr Lynch was asked to leave after a “very significant” shortfall in Autonomy’s revenue numbers in the last quarter. The division had not been able to adequately handle all the sales leads they were being given by the company, these people said.

...

 

“Both sides are trying to put a spin on it and you have to take both sides with some caution. But there is no doubt the deal has not worked out in the way that HP wanted,” said Richard Holway, analyst at TechMarketView. “It is a bit like GM trying to run a F1 racing team.”

 

According to people close to the company, Steve Chamberlain, chief finance officer, Sushovan Hussein, president and head of sales, Pete Menell, chief technology officer, Andy Kanter, chief operating officer, Nicole Eagan, chief marketing officer and Martina King, head of virtual reality project Aurasma, had all left in the last few weeks. Autonomy’s head of legal, several regional sales chiefs, and a large number of developers have also left.

 

Former Autonomy employees said that sales had been delayed last quarter because of a move to using HP’s sales process, which was made slow by high levels of bureaucracy. They also said it had been hard to deliver sales results following the departure of so many senior executives.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

That's a pretty major purchase, but it looks like Relational Investors bought it - it wasn't for his personal account.

 

"Relational invests in and strives to create long-term growth in publicly traded, underperforming companies that it believes are undervalued in the marketplace.  Through intense and focused research, Relational develops an engagement plan to unlock value in its portfolio companies. The Firm seeks to engage the management, board of directors, and shareholders of a portfolio company in a productive dialogue designed to build a consensus for positive change to improve shareholder value"

 

http://www.rillc.com/about.htm

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  • 2 months later...

ML still has a "buy" rating though lowered price target from $24 to $22:

 

Resilient EPS despite challenging revenue backdrop 

F3Q12 results were consistent with HP’s positive pre-announcement, and despite

the company’s somber commentary on the overall demand environment, F4Q12

EPS outlook was barely below Street.  HP is facing growing macro headwinds

and unfavorable competitive dynamics across its transactional businesses.  This,

coupled with various company-specific issues, should hamper revenue growth in

the near term, although restructuring should provide support to EPS in our view. 

We believe HP is taking steps in the right direction, albeit small, and that current

valuation discounts much of macro/secular/turnaround concerns (4.3x our new

C2013 EPS).  Maintain Buy. 

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  • 1 month later...

The thing that keeps me looking at HPQ is Klarman's position which he increased last quarter. It comprises 15% of his equity portfolio (obviously smaller in total assets managed). Did he make a mistake here or was he just too early? I've seen some of his smaller positions not work out, but can't remember seeing his larger positions not working. To me he's about as close to an investing genius as they come.

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The thing that keeps me looking at HPQ is Klarman's position which he increased last quarter. It comprises 15% of his equity portfolio (obviously smaller in total assets managed). Did he make a mistake here or was he just too early? I've seen some of his smaller positions not work out, but can't remember seeing his larger positions not working. To me he's about as close to an investing genius as they come.

 

It's very cheap!  I prefer Dell over HP though...balance sheet, management continuity, dividend, focus on small to mid-size firms, etc.  We continue to buy lots of Dell.  This is going to be a huge bet for us if things persist as they are.  Dell is ridiculously cheap!  Cheers!

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I have a very small position (optioned shares) in HPQ. HPQ and DELL for that matter are priced very attractively, but have the common problem that the PC industry is in a slow runoff from its peak several years ago. Both must reinvent themselves and become hardware/software/service solutions to their clients. This is not impossible but their success relies on management which I do not believe has proven their ability to create value or stay ahead of the technology curve. I think Intel is lumped into this 'PC' space and is selling at a discount with HPQ and DELL, but only has to continue to with business as usual to remain the market leader.

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Thanks, P. I'm interested to see whether Klarman has started a position in Dell once the next reporting comes out.

 

I didnt catch if Whitman commented on the Win 8 replacement cycle today, need to read the transcript.

 

I agree that INTC while not as cheap, is a higher quality business. I think their odds of succeeding in mobile are higher than HPQ and DELL's chances at reinvention. And the INTC dividend is great. If it gets closer to 20, I will be taking a hard look at it.

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I don't understand what you guys see in HPQ. True it is cheap according to pretty much every metric. That being said, I just don't see the attraction in investing in beaten down stocks the Market hates...especially when that capital could go to emerging firms that are growing in strength....

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Interesting article at the New York Times blog about HP's troubles. I personally believe HP has still a lot of clean-up to do that might last some while. It's interesting to see that the best investors like Berkowitz (with BAC) or now Klarman (with HPQ) are always a little early with their investments. I personally don't own any shares in HPQ, but we should have a watchful eye on HP over the next years. Currently Dell seems to be the more stable computer manufacturer, as I would agree with Sanjeev. Specially there is some incentive that the founder owns a significant stake.

 

-------

 

 

H.P. Shares Fall as Chief Sees Trouble

Oct. 3rd, 2012 - NY Times Blog

 

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/h-p-stock-drops-as-meg-whitman-speaks/#postComment

 

Meg Whitman, Hewlett-Packard’s chief executive, beat up her company on Wednesday.

 

Ms. Whitman told a meeting of Wall Street analysts that they should expect sharply lower revenue and profits. She also told them not to expect the company to fully right itself before 2016. “We have much more work to do,” she said.....

 

Operating profit margins, which have been about 7 percent, could evaporate completely or, at best, shrink to about 3 percent, the company said. Earnings per share were expected to fall by about 16 percent from what analysts had projected.

 

 

I’ve learned at H.P. that you do not get what you expect, you get what you inspect,” she said.

 

Investors may also have been troubled by some of Ms. Whitman’s strategy. She intends to shrink the number of products H.P. makes, and to move out of businesses that are in decline.

 

For example, she said the company made more than 2,100 varieties of laser printers, causing excess costs in everything from parts to packaging requirements.

 

 

 

 

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Whitman just gave an interview on cnbc. I have no confidence in her at all. She mostly just kept repeating blowhard nonsense about how they have good employees.

 

While I didn't see that interview, I did watch the one on cnn money. She seemed totally off. I think there is potentionally a ton of value in HPQ, but I can't say that Whitman brings a lot of confidence or vision.

 

 

http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/10/01/t-hp-tablet-meg-whitman.cnnmoney/

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I don't understand what you guys see in HPQ. True it is cheap according to pretty much every metric. That being said, I just don't see the attraction in investing in beaten down stocks the Market hates...especially when that capital could go to emerging firms that are growing in strength....

 

 

Maybe it's just a preference or style.  I prefer certaintly over uncertaintly.  If I can buy assets for $.50 that is a certainty, the assets are worth $1 and I can buy them for $.50.  If I'm buying growth I'm betting on an estimate, there is uncertaintly as to whether a company can execute in the future as well as they have in the past.  Maybe they can and it all works out, but sometimes it doesn't.

 

I realize the value idea isn't all that attractive.  When people talk about stocks they want to hear things like what a co-worker said recently "I made so much money in ExpressScripts, I bought low and they have grown like a weed, so many times my money." Not what I'd say "I did well on CIBL, it was some crummy rural wireless assets that were sold off in a complicated transaction where I ended up making 50% in three months."  Or "My shares in a French defense contractor have been doing well, they were priced for death but that hasn't happened"

 

There are many paths to take in investing, choose the one that suits your personality.  If you can find entry state growth companies and invest before they take off you will be wildly richer than probably anyone on this board when you catch the next Facebook.  I don't have the skills for that.

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Maybe it's just a preference or style.  I prefer certaintly over uncertaintly.  If I can buy assets for $.50 that is a certainty, the assets are worth $1 and I can buy them for $.50.  If I'm buying growth I'm betting on an estimate, there is uncertaintly as to whether a company can execute in the future as well as they have in the past.  Maybe they can and it all works out, but sometimes it doesn't.

 

I realize the value idea isn't all that attractive.  When people talk about stocks they want to hear things like what a co-worker said recently "I made so much money in ExpressScripts, I bought low and they have grown like a weed, so many times my money." Not what I'd say "I did well on CIBL, it was some crummy rural wireless assets that were sold off in a complicated transaction where I ended up making 50% in three months."  Or "My shares in a French defense contractor have been doing well, they were priced for death but that hasn't happened"

 

My point was not that stock ideas need to be attractive in the sense that your co-workers would be talking excitedly about it. The idea is that a business with strong business model that with good expansion opportunities offers far more stability, certainty, and safety than a misfiring firm with a lot of liquid assets. Especially in a situation like a tech turnaround where a firm's success is so heavily linked to the chief executive's abilities, the firm's valuation could become irrelevant very quickly.

 

I think an investment case for HPQ would be far more convincing if it focused on MW's skillset, track record, and plans for the future rather than one that centered around valuation.

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HP Debt at Riskiest Level to Dell in Decade

Oct. 5th, 2012 - Bloomberg

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-05/hp-debt-at-riskiest-level-to-dell-in-decade-corporate-finance

 

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) debt is the riskiest in a decade relative to Dell Inc. (DELL) as Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman struggles to transform the world’s largest computer maker in an age of tablets and smartphones.

 

The cost to insure Hewlett-Packard bonds with credit- default swaps grew to 54.9 basis points more than its largest rival on Oct. 3 after being cheaper a year ago. The gap grew 15 points as Whitman said income would be below analyst estimates and that her company lacked “competitive focus.” Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday it may downgrade the firm.

 

 

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Fitch cuts Hewlett-Packard ratings

Oct. 5th, 2012 - Reuters

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/idUSWNA692520121005?type=marketsNews

 

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Hewlett-Packard cut to neutral at Sterne Agee

Oct. 5th, 2012 - MarketWatch

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-05/industries/34268644_1_hewlett-packard-sterne-agee-analysts

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at Sterne Agee on Friday cut their rating on Hewlett-Packard Co. (US:hpq) to neutral from buy. "We are at a loss in identifying positive catalysts within a reasonable investment horizon and fear for further downside surprises as we believe the headwinds the company faces are likely structural and secular in nature," analyst Shawn Wu said in a note to clients. Wu said the company appears to be worth about $10 to $15 a share. Shares of Hewlett-Packard fell 1% in premarket trades.

 

 

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Hewlett-Packard: Value Play or Value Trap

Oct. 5th, 2012

http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/hewlett-packard-value-play-or-value-trap/

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