rpadebet Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Seen earlier on Twitter: "Ballmer should have just done a Vogue cover" http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/506b1b6aeab8eaae7d000010-620-465/steve-ballmer.jpg?maxX=350 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 The turnaround plan has been in place for some time now, it's not like the hard work is going to start from this point forward. They have parts of the business that are seeing strong growth, and areas like search are nearing profitability, and even WinPhone has been seeing growth. I'm pro MSFT. So who's going to be the next CEO? I think Nadella is the frontrunner, but who knows. Eric Rudder has been there the longest. an outsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 No outsider has the knowledge and skill set to run MSFT. On top of that MS has a very deep and experienced management team that knows the business far better than any outsider. MS doesn't need a visionary leader/savior/messiah, it needs a good product guy who will continue growing the business. The firm is not doing poorly. If you think there are outsider candidates, please name them and state why they're better than internal candidates. Curious to know who this mythical outsider CEO is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zarley Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Ron Johnson is available. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 They should look into Andy Rubin. He was recently relieved of his Android duties at Google. Also he is an ex-MSFT. So insider as well as outsider. product guy as well as a rock star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 My choice would be jeff raikes. but I doubt he wants it. my next choice would be steven elop. my next choice would be Sundar Pichai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Didn't Bill Gates snipe Jeff Raikes from Microsoft to work for the Gates Foundation? And then Bill Gates decided to devote himself full-time to the Gates foundation too. No outsider has the knowledge and skill set to run MSFT. On top of that MS has a very deep and experienced management team that knows the business far better than any outsider. Lou Gerstner did a great job at turning around IBM. He was an outsider and didn't have much of a technology or engineering background. Microsoft might do an above-average job at finding a replacement CEO. Bill Gates is a really smart guy and owns a big chunk of Microsoft (alongside Ballmer) so he'll likely get his way. And Gates is close friends with Buffett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Let's check in with MSFT: - The mobile efforts have failed to gain traction, even though they have gained some momentum by filling in vacuum left my BBRY - Their tablet efforts on the ARM side have more or less failed - The jury is supposedly out on the Intel side but the failure of the $500 Surface does not bode well for the $1000 Surface - Their tablet efforts are hobbled by their lack of traction on the smartphone side - Most of their users are using iOS but if they sell Office on iOS, they have to pay 30% to Apple or they have to cripple their app - The cloud is threatening many of their server side businesses - They are locked in a three-way price war on the cloud 1, They cannot afford mistakes or delays at this juncture. 2, So what do you do? Well, you start a massive reorg into a form of organizational structure that few companies have pulled off. If that didn't cause enough chaos in your company, you soon announce that you will be quitting within 12 months. So now the organization is confused, doesn't know who to look to for leadership, doesn't know when the issue will be resolved, doesn't know what the next guy will do, doesn't know if they will have a job, what that job will be, who they will report to. They have timed 1 & 2 together well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I think everyone is aware of their weaknesses. How about the positive facts (despite all their shortcomings) : -Generates 2 billion in free cash per month - has grown revenue and EPS by 13% and 11.5% respectively over the past 10 years. - has grown revenue and EPS by 12.5% and 14.5% respectively over the past 5 years. - has numerous product lines that generate over 1 billion in sales. - has net profit margins equal to the gross margin of AAPL's (just had to throw that in their for you). What will MSFT ever look like if they do get the mobile or tablet business right? Please note the above results are in spite of a failed attempt at mobile and tablets. That is what the competition is worried about. In other news windows phone is now #2 in south America behind android but ahead of third place iPhone. Let's check in with MSFT: - The mobile efforts have failed to gain traction, even though they have gained some momentum by filling in vacuum left my BBRY - Their tablet efforts on the ARM side have more or less failed - The jury is supposedly out on the Intel side but the failure of the $500 Surface does not bode well for the $1000 Surface - Their tablet efforts are hobbled by their lack of traction on the smartphone side - Most of their users are using iOS but if they sell Office on iOS, they have to pay 30% to Apple or they have to cripple their app - The cloud is threatening many of their server side businesses - They are locked in a three-way price war on the cloud 1, They cannot afford mistakes or delays at this juncture. 2, So what do you do? Well, you start a massive reorg into a form of organizational structure that few companies have pulled off. If that didn't cause enough chaos in your company, you soon announce that you will be quitting within 12 months. So now the organization is confused, doesn't know who to look to for leadership, doesn't know when the issue will be resolved, doesn't know what the next guy will do, doesn't know if they will have a job, what that job will be, who they will report to. They have timed 1 & 2 together well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I think everyone is aware of their weaknesses. How about the positive facts (despite all their shortcomings) : -Generates 2 billion in free cash per month - has grown revenue and EPS by 13% and 11.5% respectively over the past 10 years. - has grown revenue and EPS by 12.5% and 14.5% respectively over the past 5 years. - has numerous product lines that generate over 1 billion in sales. - has net profit margins equal to the gross margin of AAPL's (just had to throw that in their for you). What will MSFT ever look like if they do get the mobile or tablet business right? Please note the above results are in spite of a failed attempt at mobile and tablets. That is what the competition is worried about. In other news windows phone is now #2 in south America behind android but ahead of third place iPhone. Let's check in with MSFT: - The mobile efforts have failed to gain traction, even though they have gained some momentum by filling in vacuum left my BBRY - Their tablet efforts on the ARM side have more or less failed - The jury is supposedly out on the Intel side but the failure of the $500 Surface does not bode well for the $1000 Surface - Their tablet efforts are hobbled by their lack of traction on the smartphone side - Most of their users are using iOS but if they sell Office on iOS, they have to pay 30% to Apple or they have to cripple their app - The cloud is threatening many of their server side businesses - They are locked in a three-way price war on the cloud 1, They cannot afford mistakes or delays at this juncture. 2, So what do you do? Well, you start a massive reorg into a form of organizational structure that few companies have pulled off. If that didn't cause enough chaos in your company, you soon announce that you will be quitting within 12 months. So now the organization is confused, doesn't know who to look to for leadership, doesn't know when the issue will be resolved, doesn't know what the next guy will do, doesn't know if they will have a job, what that job will be, who they will report to. They have timed 1 & 2 together well. Microsoft signs multi-year licensing deals with enterprises, the full impact of mobile hasn't hit their financials yet. Take a look in 3-4 years. On that Latin America thing -they're selling low end phones. Don't expect it to make much difference to their income statement. Worse, they are now dependent on Nokia for most of the their mobile revenue. Something tells me they won't be extracting huge licensing fees for Windows 8 mobile. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 My choice would be jeff raikes. but I doubt he wants it. my next choice would be steven elop. my next choice would be Sundar Pichai. Jeff Raikes has background in product, however that was in MBD, which is expected to be a less and less prominent division on its own in the future. Furthermore, he has been out of the industry for a while, and adds nothing that their internals like Qi Lu or Sadya Nadella don't have. Especially in the case of the latter have far greater cross-product experience. Steven Elop has about two years at MS, like Raikes his background is in the MBD, which is great, but that doesn't put him above anybody currently in the management mix. Sundar Pichai has never run any kind of successful OS (Surely you're not comparing Chrome OS to Windows?), he doesn't have a background in mobile, he doesn't have a background in servers. Again, nothing that isn't already internal to MS. Lou Gerstner did a great job at turning around IBM. He was an outsider and didn't have much of a technology or engineering background. Microsoft might do an above-average job at finding a replacement CEO. Bill Gates is a really smart guy and owns a big chunk of Microsoft (alongside Ballmer) so he'll likely get his way. And Gates is close friends with Buffett. Steve Ballmer is also a really smart guy...both BillG and Mitt Romney wanted to hire him.... Microsoft is in far better shape than IBM prior to its turnaround, there are business units in there that are strongly growing and will prove to be the company's driving force in the future. To compare it to IBM's turnaround is pretty mistaken. That Gates is friends with Buffett is not really germane to the topic. Let's not start with the fanboyism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Microsoft signs multi-year licensing deals with enterprises, the full impact of mobile hasn't hit their financials yet. Take a look in 3-4 years. On that Latin America thing -they're selling low end phones. Don't expect it to make much difference to their income statement. Worse, they are now dependent on Nokia for most of the their mobile revenue. Something tells me they won't be extracting huge licensing fees for Windows 8 mobile. ;) People have been complaining about MS's decline for more than 3-4 years now, yet their financials are pristine. What specifically do you have that shows their deals with businesses will suddenly implode after 3-4 years? On phones, your thinking is too static. (Unless it comes to Apple. ::) ) He's not suggesting that the low end phones in LA will be enough to turn around the business, but merely that they are seeing strong, and legitimate growth in this particular business unit. The windows phone product is essentially good, it's just a question of iterative improvement and capturing mindshare. Overall, IMO MS has serious positives in: S&T - MS's core driver in the future Applications - a lot of potential to strengthen the growth of the enterprise business on top of their cash cows like Office. Phones - The core product is good and is starting to gain traction. Search - It is nearing profitability, and in the future, may well start taking away marketshare from G. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ballmer resigns right after it is disclosed that David Einhorn has sold out of MSFT. Hostages were freed right after Jimmy Carter left office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Here is a longish, Vanity Fair article from Aug 2012 on MSFT since Ballmer took the top job: http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mojo-steve-ballmer It will be interesting to see how Apple deals with its success in the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainman Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 On phones, your thinking is too static. (Unless it comes to Apple. ::) ) He's not suggesting that the low end phones in LA will be enough to turn around the business, but merely that they are seeing strong, and legitimate growth in this particular business unit. The windows phone product is essentially good, it's just a question of iterative improvement and capturing mindshare. Overall, IMO MS has serious positives in: Phones - The core product is good and is starting to gain traction. Note also that, somewhat amusingly, based on estimates, MSFT makes more money from Andriod than it does from Windows Phone! Also arguably they make more direct revenue from Android than Google does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Microsoft signs multi-year licensing deals with enterprises, the full impact of mobile hasn't hit their financials yet. Take a look in 3-4 years. On that Latin America thing -they're selling low end phones. Don't expect it to make much difference to their income statement. Worse, they are now dependent on Nokia for most of the their mobile revenue. Something tells me they won't be extracting huge licensing fees for Windows 8 mobile. ;) People have been complaining about MS's decline for more than 3-4 years now, yet their financials are pristine. What specifically do you have that shows their deals with businesses will suddenly implode after 3-4 years? On phones, your thinking is too static. (Unless it comes to Apple. ::) ) He's not suggesting that the low end phones in LA will be enough to turn around the business, but merely that they are seeing strong, and legitimate growth in this particular business unit. The windows phone product is essentially good, it's just a question of iterative improvement and capturing mindshare. Overall, IMO MS has serious positives in: S&T - MS's core driver in the future Applications - a lot of potential to strengthen the growth of the enterprise business on top of their cash cows like Office. Phones - The core product is good and is starting to gain traction. Search - It is nearing profitability, and in the future, may well start taking away marketshare from G. There's a reason why they're no. 2 in Latin America: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/guess-which-country-is-getting-its-first-apple-store.html/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 As usual, you don't answer my question and leave a vague hint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 As usual, you don't answer my question and leave a vague hint... 3-4 years is enough time for the points I previously laid out to be reflected in their financials. Take a look at RIM and Nokia. Was their decline gradual? How long after the iPhone were the underlying marketplace changes reflected in their financials? How muc stability and margin of safety can you expect with a change in leadership and one of the biggest reorgs? What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 What specifically do you know that says their business and corporate contracts will decline after 3-4 years? It seems you were just stating a factoid "contracts are for 3-4 years", and then just stating your narrative without actually you know, backing up the statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I think Ballmer should announce again that he is resigning and keep doing it to support the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I wonder if MS should release their own version of Android or build a layer on top of Android. Something like Facebook Home. You can have microsoft products like Skype and Bing. Skype is great because you can use it instead of using your voice minutes etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Let's check in with MSFT: - The mobile efforts have failed to gain traction, even though they have gained some momentum by filling in vacuum left my BBRY - Their tablet efforts on the ARM side have more or less failed - The jury is supposedly out on the Intel side but the failure of the $500 Surface does not bode well for the $1000 Surface - Their tablet efforts are hobbled by their lack of traction on the smartphone side - Most of their users are using iOS but if they sell Office on iOS, they have to pay 30% to Apple or they have to cripple their app - The cloud is threatening many of their server side businesses - They are locked in a three-way price war on the cloud 1, They cannot afford mistakes or delays at this juncture. 2, So what do you do? Well, you start a massive reorg into a form of organizational structure that few companies have pulled off. If that didn't cause enough chaos in your company, you soon announce that you will be quitting within 12 months. So now the organization is confused, doesn't know who to look to for leadership, doesn't know when the issue will be resolved, doesn't know what the next guy will do, doesn't know if they will have a job, what that job will be, who they will report to. They have timed 1 & 2 together well. Sure enough: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-26/microsoft-said-to-reassure-workers-that-plan-remains-on-track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What specifically do you know that says their business and corporate contracts will decline after 3-4 years? Please answer the bolded part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Why All the Hate for Steve Ballmer? http://slashdot.org/topic/cloud/why-all-the-hate-for-steve-ballmer/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What specifically do you know that says their business and corporate contracts will decline after 3-4 years? Please answer the bolded part. Because I work in the business and talk to enterprises all the time, we see where the trends are going. The PC sales numbers should give you a hint. You can't have PC sales continuing to fall and MSFT making the same amount of money. They wouldn't have fired Ballmer in the middle of a huge reorg unless they are in a crisis. In other words, bad news coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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