Palantir Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 I disagree to some extent. I don't think valuation should be the driver for your decisions. Sometimes, or usually, you just need to capture valuable strategic real estate. MSFT has spent tons of money building an online presence with little to show for it, and an acquisition of Yahoo, while admittedly overpriced, may well have given them that. I know I'm justifying MBA empire building, but I don't think these guys that irrational. "Don't hate the player, hate the game". I think focusing on maximizing cash flows is fine, and I'm for returning more cash to shareholders, but come on, we all know Microsoft is not going to roll over and milk its cash flows until they disappear, these people are wired to create growth, and I think Mr Softy has a lot of growth potential, from Enterprise, Mobile, Search to random things that probably don't even exist yet. Maybe the best way to deal with this is to just discount half their cash as "allocated for poor decisions". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, rose to the highest price since September after activist investor ValueAct Holdings LP amassed about a $1.9 billion stake I can't wait for Steve Ballmer to start jumping and screaming: "Investors - investors - investors - investors - investors - investors - " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/microsoft-rises-on-report-of-valueact-2-billion-stake.html Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, rose to the highest price since September after activist investor ValueAct Holdings LP amassed about a $1.9 billion stake less than 1%! I am sure Ballmer is shaking in his boots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-22/microsoft-rises-on-report-of-valueact-2-billion-stake.html Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, rose to the highest price since September after activist investor ValueAct Holdings LP amassed about a $1.9 billion stake less than 1%! I am sure Ballmer is shaking in his boots! I'd hate to be those boots! Have you seen the "monkey man" video. Must have been 2,000 lbs/square in. of pressure on those soles! ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Mr Softy has a lot of growth potential, from Enterprise, Mobile, Search to random things that probably don't even exist yet. There probably is potential with enterprise but then everyone has their target on the same pie. HP,DELL,IBM, to a lesser extent google and amazon, many other smaller players as well. Everyone is banking on enterprise to save them. Some will be disappointed as a result. Mobile is going to kick microsoft's butt. Microsoft isn't even a real contender at this point and meanwhile many people are switching off of windows. Even at the current generation I have family who are electing to not upgrade their PCs as they only use them 3 or 4 times a year, everything else is done on their Ipad. Ultimately, as more desktop replacement apps become available, will there be any reason to have a windows box? If you need a keyboard/mouse/screen, you can just connect those up to your device. It will be a very slow process but I see it as huge headwinds for MSFT. Search is I guess possible but if microsoft couldn't crush google 7 or 8 years ago, why is it going to happen now? I mean google is a much larger company now and the gap between their search engines has actually grown IMO. I remember MSFT getting in trouble last year because they were stealing google's search results and using them as their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I too think Microsoft faces headwinds in just about everything besides Office. Then again, Office is a pretty large "besides". I wonder what MS would look like if they spun off the Office division... :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Hey all: What has been the history of MSFT acquisitions? The best one I can think of was Bungie Studios, the makers of Halo (and other) games. The list of failures is long, lengthy, and painful.... Imagine how much better of shareholders would be if MSFT bought back stock OR increased the dividend... I am going to guess that their FUTURE track record of acquisitions will mirror their past track record. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Good Microsoft acquisitions: DOS The various products that were integrated in MS Office. So one could argue that Microsoft's acquisition track record is very, very good. *These acquisitions happened while Gates was the CEO. He only works part-time at Microsoft now... so an argument can be made against Ballmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I think you should just look at acquisitions as CapX - just part of the economics of the industry. Sometimes you just need to buy things to be relevant and figure out how to make it profitable. A few billion here and there especially with offshore cash is NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 A few billion here and there especially with offshore cash is NBD. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Hey all: What has been the history of MSFT acquisitions? On May 18, 2007, Microsoft announced that it would acquire the company for $US 6 billion, the largest acquisition in Microsoft's history until its 2011 purchase of Skype.[1][2] The acquisition closed on August 10, 2007.[3] aQuantive became part of Microsoft's newly-created Advertiser and Publisher Solutions (APS) Group. On July 2, 2012, Microsoft announced that it would take a $6.2 billion writedown, mostly related to the 2007 acquisition of aQuantive. Skype is not working either. And Yahoo would have been a disaster at the price they offered. they were fortunate Jerry Yang was yahoo CEO at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Yeah it's like they didn't learn anything from eBay... which bought Skype and sold it at a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Yeah it's like they didn't learn anything from eBay... which bought Skype and sold it at a loss. ebay actually did okay. they sold 65% to silver lake at about the cost. but retained 35% that eventually sold to msft at a big premium. the question is why didn't msft buy it from ebay to begin with instead of paying more than double that to silver lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I think you should just look at acquisitions as CapX - just part of the economics of the industry. Sometimes you just need to buy things to be relevant and figure out how to make it profitable. A few billion here and there especially with offshore cash is NBD. I couldn't disagree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Good Microsoft acquisitions: DOS The various products that were integrated in MS Office. So one could argue that Microsoft's acquisition track record is very, very good. *These acquisitions happened while Gates was the CEO. He only works part-time at Microsoft now... so an argument can be made against Ballmer. OK, very good point. HOWEVER, that happened in "ancient times". The time frame I am speaking about is within the last 10 years or so. So way back when, MSFT made some EXCELLENT acquisitions. Lately, not so much. Of course, there is ONE HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!!!! How much extra cash did MSFT have lying around when the bought DOS? How much extra cash laying around did MSFT have for it's latest acquisitions? I am going to posit that having BILLIONS in cash laying around makes for some very poor acquisition choices... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 OK, very good point. HOWEVER, that happened in "ancient times". The time frame I am speaking about is within the last 10 years or so. So way back when, MSFT made some EXCELLENT acquisitions. Lately, not so much. Of course, there is ONE HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!!!! How much extra cash did MSFT have lying around when the bought DOS? How much extra cash laying around did MSFT have for it's latest acquisitions? I am going to posit that having BILLIONS in cash laying around makes for some very poor acquisition choices... In general I think that I agree. I find this concept applies to entrepreneurship as well. Throwing a ton of money at a good idea doesn't promise success: in fact it's usually poorly spent. However "bootstrapping" a business together creates a more focused company with a higher chance for success (and less risk in terms of absolute capital loss!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 What is the price target (range) for those holding MSFT? I am holding some and looking to slowly unload around mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Mid 30s is a good point to start selling IMO. I'd like to get at least a 40% return, and I bought at 26, so....1.4*26= 36. Doubt it'll get there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Mid 30s is a good point to start selling IMO. I'd like to get at least a 40% return, and I bought at 26, so....1.4*26= 36. Doubt it'll get there though. Good thinking. My cost basis too is around $25.8 and I know this isn't a stock that is going to make me rich overnight. But it has been a consistently stalwart performer every since I bought it in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Some cool stuff coming out of Microsoft Research: http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/154439-microsofts-illumiroom-peripheral-projector-is-the-xbox-720s-killer-feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 A good anonymous insider account from a MSFT Windows developer, might be a bit heavy on the tech speak for non-geeks. http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Mid 30s is a good point to start selling IMO. I'd like to get at least a 40% return, and I bought at 26, so....1.4*26= 36. Doubt it'll get there though. Looks like we're heading there! I sold some around $34.97...or in Parasad's parlance - average out :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah this is a problem. It's starting to near the "sell" point...but I have no idea what I would do with the cash. I'm just going to wait till 40....no harm in waiting, I'll keep picking up a div. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah this is a problem. It's starting to near the "sell" point...but I have no idea what I would do with the cash. I'm just going to wait till 40....no harm in waiting, I'll keep picking up a div. Yeah even at fair value a holding makes you 10% annually. But MSFT is an awfully large portion of my portfolio (nearly ~19%). I'm not sure what to do yet (same goes for my JNJ and NVS holdings which I feel are already slightly overvalued). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethatk Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 MSFT is my largest position and I am willing to let it run long term. I have no reason to believe that they will not be around in 5-10 years. I plan on treating MSFT as a dividend growth investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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