Jump to content

MSFT - Microsoft

Viking

By Viking
in Investment Ideas

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 937
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

loganc Newbie

loganc

Posted
Posted

How do people feel about the fact that share count doesn't seem to have decreased by much over the last year?  I could be wrong but it seems like they are spending a lot of money buying back shares and the share count doesn't seem to budge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest valueInv

Guest valueInv

Posted
Posted

 

Microsoft profit jumps 17%

 

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/24/technology/enterprise/microsoft-earnings/index.html

 

Love their enterprise growth. Search growth has been nice bonus, and I suspect it will accelerate.

 

If the marketshare of Windows 8 devices keeps increasing, expect Bing to continue to grow with it. An even bigger jump will come

if Apple switches the default search engine on its OSes to Bing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Palantir Newbie

Palantir

Posted
Posted

If the marketshare of Windows 8 devices keeps increasing, expect Bing to continue to grow with it. An even bigger jump will come

if Apple switches the default search engine on its OSes to Bing.

 

Yep. I think three things will drive growth in Bing:

- W8 uptake (happening)

- WP8 growth (happening)

- Siri usage increasing (no idea)

 

I am skeptical Apple will make Bing the default, I see them giving access to a list of search engines with first choice being Siri.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest valueInv

Guest valueInv

Posted
Posted

If the marketshare of Windows 8 devices keeps increasing, expect Bing to continue to grow with it. An even bigger jump will come

if Apple switches the default search engine on its OSes to Bing.

 

Yep. I think three things will drive growth in Bing:

- W8 uptake (happening)

- WP8 growth (happening)

- Siri usage increasing (no idea)

 

I am skeptical Apple will make Bing the default, I see them giving access to a list of search engines with first choice being Siri.

 

Siri is not really a search engine, it plugs in other engines.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bing as default on iOS. There are some interesting possibilities for integration. Take a look at Satori.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Palantir Newbie

Palantir

Posted
Posted

How do people feel about the fact that share count doesn't seem to have decreased by much over the last year?  I could be wrong but it seems like they are spending a lot of money buying back shares and the share count doesn't seem to budge.

This qtr seems to be ok. 2113M/32= 66M shares reduced which is roughly the case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Palantir Newbie

Palantir

Posted
Posted

I'm selling if Elop is CEO. Office is not particularly valuable on a frigging smartphone. I don't see how MS could make money selling Office on mobile. Also, Bing is just starting to gain some traction, and could be quite profitable in the future. As for Xbox, I'd prefer if they just try to make it profitable, I don't have huge expectations for the franchise.

 

If they really want to cut major costs, I'd prefer if they take a hammer to Microsoft Research.

 

 

My nominee for CEO, not that anyone's asking, is Satya Nadella. He's been leading S&T, which is going to be the most important unit for MS going into the future, before that he led Bing, and before that he was in the Business Div. I don't believe anyone else has the same broad experience as he does. I'd be fine if he was partnered with a veteran like Mulally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest wellmont

Guest wellmont

Posted
Posted

the reason the stock is up is because investors are hopeful that an outsider will be named new msft ceo, and that he will take a fresh look at bing and xbox and realize they don't belong in the portfolio. hiring an insider, like the head of S&T, would probably create negative value by dropping the stock back to the low $30s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
plato1976 Newbie

plato1976

Posted
Posted

why not below 30 ? so I can buy again ...

 

the reason the stock is up is because investors are hopeful that an outsider will be named new msft ceo, and that he will take a fresh look at bing and xbox and realize they don't belong in the portfolio. hiring an insider, like the head of S&T, would probably create negative value by dropping the stock back to the low $30s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest wellmont

Guest wellmont

Posted
Posted

why not below 30 ? so I can buy again ...

 

For under $30, you will simply have to be patient and wait for them to make another large acquisition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ERICOPOLY Newbie

ERICOPOLY

Posted
Posted

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303460004579193951987616572?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryRotator

 

Microsoft Abandons 'Stack Ranking' of Employees

 

Software Giant Will End Controversial Practice of Forcing Managers to Designate Stars, Underperformers

 

I remember about 13 years ago when star individuals left the Windows division on the main campus, and took jobs over in the MSN division on the "Red(mond) West" campus a few miles away.  The idea being that stack ranking is easy to master when the other employees are orders of magnitude less competitive than those in the Windows division.  But you didn't want to outright quit, because you still had unvested stock options.  You just wanted an easier waiting period.

 

The joke was "Rest and Vest in Red West".

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
texual Newbie

texual

Posted
Posted

I'm only sticking around IF Elop becomes CEO...

 

That was at least the long term idea when I began my NOK/MSFT investment two/three years ago.

 

Elop is the right person for the future, hes got a grip on how to fix things. He also ran Office and understands the value of the franchise. Ballmer didn't really want to unleash the suite outside Windows. Guess what, Window's doesn't matter as much anymore and everyone knows it. In the future, Windows will be less important. But Office, thats something that will be an even bigger cash cow provided they have it available for basically anyone with an internet connection on any device, or platform. Elop may not be so crazy. I don't see how they make $$$ on Windows OS licenses considering that they'll be the primary hardware provider for their phones, tablets and xbox going forward. And they will all run the same basic Windows software and the platform will be the apps that run on them all. Office should be available for Android users.

 

Back to Elop, go read about how he nixed all the useless R&D projects at Nokia and hand picked the ones like the PureView team and the polycarbonate shells to be used for Lumia differentiation. That bet cut expenses and built a great brand thats growing really well for them. I think Elop is actually a lot more knowledgeable than he gets credit for. I also love his interview style and how he handles pressure. Hes got the ability to lead the future Microsoft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Liberty Newbie

Liberty

Posted
Posted

Texual, your admiration for Elop isn't reduced by what happened to Nokia's mobile division under his watch? If he's so talented, why did things go so wrong? Or was the company doomed whoever was at the helm? (Maybe Steve Jobs himself not have been able to make it work? But if so, is that a good asset for Microsoft now?)

 

Just curious how you reconcile that outcome with him being the best CEO for Microsoft in the mobile era.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
texual Newbie

texual

Posted
Posted

Is he not?

 

I think Nokia did very well for itself. It would have gone exactly like Blackberry had if they stuck to Symbian and didn't release a compelling product. Elop just showed up in 2010 and saved that company from total annihilation. And look, Nokia gets to live on. The hardware and engineering gets to breathe within Microsoft. So what did I miss? I predicted insignificant sales for Lumia until Windows Phone 8 came on board and every quarter they are smashing through higher sales volumes. They've got a lot of compelling products coming out every few months and are on a tear. I love the new 6 inch phone coming to ATT, I love the Lumia tablet. And Nokia sold almost 9 million Lumia devices last quarter. I guess I don't know how other people look at it but I only see this as Elop came to save something that was pretty much going to die.

 

I am also convinced that he was generally always going to wind up coming back to Microsoft no matter what.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
texual Newbie

texual

Posted
Posted

And not to get too philosophical but I think in his 3 years he did more for the advancement of mobile phones than anyone else. Pureview camera technology is light years ahead of anyone else. Lumia 920 was the first consumer phone that was so sensitive you could control it using gloves or a fingernail. Oh and that polycarbonate unibody shell they built was awe inspiring if you check out the machining and color reproduction they had to figure out just to get it right. Wireless charging, anyone? I didn't ever consider that until I saw the Lumia 920. Very cool product.

 

And their tablet is pretty cool too with the battery cover/keyboard. Talking innovation, for someone who had to save the company financially, he really is a forward thinking guy to pick a bunch of divisions like the camera dudes and polycarbonates teams and figure out a way to merge them in different ways and get cool products. He could have gone cookie cutter and copied the other guys and made a mediocre Android phone. A me-too product. I think he took the other side of the equation.

 

Steve Woz said he didn't know how but he believed the 'reincarnated Steve Jobs' was at Microsoft and they were the guys doing Windows Phones. He loved the Lumia and the combination. Strong words. Elop got a lot of flack for not making a Droid. My heart aches to wonder how that Samsung/HTC copy would turn out. Maybe financially so-so.. but not the kind of innovating things you see in WP.

 

For the record I think Windows Phone is on the right track to success. Nokia wound up with 90%+ of the WP marketshare and it only makes sense for Microsoft to be the one who makes it a in-house production.

 

Hardware + Software + Services = Nokia and Microsoft.

 

 

Elop actually made that possible because otherwise Nokia could have kept making Symbian phones. They would have just gone bankrupt. I watched every interview and word Elop said and I walked away generally impressed. He was clear, focused and very aware of what he was up against. Anyone else would have crashed the company worse than Ron Johnson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...