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Viking

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Hmmm...it's not good if Gates stays on other than an advisory role. This guy has no understanding of building a great consumer product, and is a giant ego that's going to punish people who disagree with him...Nadella has a great understanding of the platforms and enterprise space, and this doesn't really shore up his weaknesses.

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You do not need to be a psychologist to question the guy who is responsible for Vista, who never figured out how to make any money on internet businesses, fumbled tablet and mobile...." It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.‘“.

 

And MSFT will  not be an FCF machine in the future if they really start taking the cloud seriously, they will need a lot of CapX and razor thin if not negative margins if they're going to catch up and beat Amazon.

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You do not need to be a psychologist to question the guy who is responsible for Vista, who never figured out how to make any money on internet businesses, fumbled tablet and mobile...." It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.‘“.

 

I guess you are right, he had a tough period between becoming the richest man on earth and starting the worlds largest philantrophic foundation. He probably spent too much time playing bridge with that dinosaur. ;)

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Guest valueInv

Are you his psychologist? :)

 

Soothsayer, actually  ;)

 

You're one to talk.

 

Let's just say I'm a little closer to the industry  ;)

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest wellmont

former ceo of msft a train wreck. doing a reorg of management knowing a new ceo would be hired soon. and pushing for NOK acquisition, which nobody else wanted initially. Looks like he tried to buy the Mapping business too, but that was nixed.

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewcave/2014/03/04/former-microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-my-biggest-regret/

 

Still on the BoD. Still pushing consumer devices. I guess he is also one of the few ppl who think Whatsapp could be worth 19 bill. In a way I feel good that he wasn't around to allow MSFT to compete for that "asset".

 

I don't know what to make of the report that Nadella was initially opposed to the Nokia acquisition but later changed his mind to support it. Was he trying to play along to stay in the leadership or does he genuinely feel Nokia could add value to MSFT?

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Guest wellmont

apparently he and msft founder had somewhat of a falling out. most expect ballmer to resign from the bod. after all they are the ones who forced him out not on his own terms.

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewcave/2014/03/04/former-microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-my-biggest-regret/

 

Still on the BoD. Still pushing consumer devices. I guess he is also one of the few ppl who think Whatsapp could be worth 19 bill. In a way I feel good that he wasn't around to allow MSFT to compete for that "asset".

 

Well they did buy Skype at a huge valuation and it's a similar platform with similar challenges.

 

These messaging apps are a dime a dozen and should be valued accordingly.  There's almost no technology in them.  They have a network of users but that user base has proven to be ephemeral at best.  Here's a list:

 

AIM

MSN Messenger

ICQ

Facebook Messenger

BBM

Skype

WhatsApp

iMessage

Hangouts/gTalk

SnapChat

Kik

IM+

Yahoo Messenger

SMS

 

Probably the collective valuation for these networks is $50bn+, and outside of SMS there is no money being made that moves the needle.

 

I'd love to see a business in messaging.  Maybe it will be in direct marketing meets messaging.  However since there is no technology moat, it's really easy for some upstart to clone a service, offer it without direct marketing messages, and kill the user base.  Someone needs to come up with unbeatable messaging technology that will keep users around in spite of cost (be it advertising or explicit fees).  Without it, these messaging apps are doomed to repeat history and become valueless over time.

 

Why anybody buys a network that doesn't have a working business model is beyond me.  MySpace is another great example here.  Great network, no business, Murdoch lost half a billy.

 

 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewcave/2014/03/04/former-microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-my-biggest-regret/

 

Still on the BoD. Still pushing consumer devices. I guess he is also one of the few ppl who think Whatsapp could be worth 19 bill. In a way I feel good that he wasn't around to allow MSFT to compete for that "asset".

 

Well they did buy Skype at a huge valuation and it's a similar platform with similar challenges.

 

These messaging apps are a dime a dozen and should be valued accordingly.  There's almost no technology in them.  They have a network of users but that user base has proven to be ephemeral at best.  Here's a list:

 

AIM

MSN Messenger

ICQ

Facebook Messenger

BBM

Skype

WhatsApp

iMessage

Hangouts/gTalk

SnapChat

Kik

IM+

Yahoo Messenger

SMS

 

Probably the collective valuation for these networks is $50bn+, and outside of SMS there is no money being made that moves the needle.

 

I'd love to see a business in messaging.  Maybe it will be in direct marketing meets messaging.  However since there is no technology moat, it's really easy for some upstart to clone a service, offer it without direct marketing messages, and kill the user base.  Someone needs to come up with unbeatable messaging technology that will keep users around in spite of cost (be it advertising or explicit fees).  Without it, these messaging apps are doomed to repeat history and become valueless over time.

 

Why anybody buys a network that doesn't have a working business model is beyond me.  MySpace is another great example here.  Great network, no business, Murdoch lost half a billy.

 

I get why FB bought Whatsapp. Zuckerberg seems to understand that his business has no moat. Only way he keeps his user base (necessary for advertising revenues to keep flowing) is to follow that user base wherever they go. I think he paid that 19B amount because he thought its easier, faster and less risky to buy them rather than invest in a new technology/product to re-attract them. The problem with strategy is sooner or later this turns into a "hamster on a treadmill" scenario. He needs to keep buying/spending to retain the user base. As long as his stock valuation allows, I think he is okay doing that.

 

MSFT doing something like this (Skype) on the other hand, I don't understand. they are spending real hard currency to gain something ephemeral. Something which doesn't even move the profit needle for them even if it is wildly successful.

 

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