MSFT - Microsoft

[hyten1]

valueInv i wouldn't say this is the most detail review of surface, this is just one of many that i have read (there are very details one from engadget, the verge, even wsj.com)

 

The most detailed Surface review you'll ever see:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/23/microsoft-surface-rt-review/

[racemize]

This is a pretty extensive (and a bit less harsh) review than the techcrunch:

 

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/10/microsofts-first-stab-at-a-pc-surface-reviewed/

 

I usually find ars to be fairly even handed on reviews.

[Ross812]

The most detailed Surface review you'll ever see:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/23/microsoft-surface-rt-review/

 

That's a pretty biased review. He should point out that every tablet except the iPad is 16:9. Also the 10.6" screen is just big enough to type two handed on the screen in landscape. I used a 10.1" RT tablet last weekend and it was 'almost' perfect. I cannot fault him for his assessment of a non rigid connector between the screen and keyboard. This is the reason I will not get a surface. 

[txlaw]

I thought this was a pretty useful review of the Surface Windows RT device:

 

[Guest valueInv]

I thought this was a pretty useful review of the Surface Windows RT device:

 

Of the 32GB of storage available, 17GB is taken by the OS. Nice.

[Palantir]

 

Oprah likes the Microsoft Surface.

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57544129-75/oprah-microsofts-surface-is-like-a-mercedes/

 

 

[txlaw]

Interesting articles on MSFT's increased focus on services, including providing answers (think search).

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/technology/microsoft-renews-relevance-with-machine-learning-technology.html?_r=1&

 

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/microsofts-plan-to-sell-answers/

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

 

Oprah likes the Microsoft Surface.

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57544129-75/oprah-microsofts-surface-is-like-a-mercedes/

 

she likes the deal she cut with msft to say she likes the surface better. she doesn't open her mouth unless somebody opens their wallet.

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

sinofsky out at msft.

[Palantir]

This is why you need to diversify your portfolio! Sinofsky was widely regarded as the heir apparent to Ballmer based on both insider and outsider info. This is a huge shock to me. There's always the chance that something goes wrong and it affects your investment thesis.

 

I did diversify though, I am long MSFT and GOOG.

[WhoIsWarren]

Is it time to bring out this classic Balmer clip??

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc

 

[txlaw]

Wow, Sinofsky is out?  That's pretty big news, and I guess we will hear more on this in the coming weeks/months.

[Guest valueInv]

http://allthingsd.com/20121113/in-the-sinofsky-departure-bill-gates-sided-with-the-other-steve-ballmer-at-microsoft/

 

This guy has to be nothing short of brilliant to wring Metro out of a company like Microsoft. He would make a great replacement to Forstall, if he could fit into Apple's culture. He seems to be the visionary, push-the-envelope type of guy.

[writser]

I personally believe the relevance of this news is overstated and typical of the short-term view that a lot of market participants have (and we should avoid). Windows 8 is a flop, so is the Surface tablet. Most people saw that coming anyway. So they fire the responsible guy. Big deal, I'd actually say it is a fair decision. If Windows 8 was really great I'd already have it installed on my computer.

 

Microsoft has a history of releasing shit products (Clippy, Bing, Windows ME, Windows Vista, Zune, Bing), but the nice thing is that they are quite rational about their capital expenditure in the long run. The reason I own MSFT is because the business world is built upon Microsoft products. They earn unreal amounts of cash by selling OS, Office and Server licenses and they can afford to make a lot of mistakes in peripheral areas. Everybody is focusing on the Surface tablet but that's not what owning shares in Microsoft is about.

 

Opinions?

[Sunrider]

For real? This guy should be fired for his attempted dancing ... let alone the wastage of shareholder money (8bn useless internet telephone piece of shite software anyone?)

[Sunrider]

I personally believe the relevance of this news is overstated and typical of the short-term view that a lot of market participants have (and we should avoid). Windows 8 is a flop, so is the Surface tablet. Most people saw that coming anyway. So they fire the responsible guy. Big deal, I'd actually say it is a fair decision. If Windows 8 was really great I'd already have it installed on my computer.

 

Microsoft has a history of releasing shit products (Clippy, Bing, Windows ME, Windows Vista, Zune, Bing), but the nice thing is that they are quite rational about their capital expenditure in the long run. The reason I own MSFT is because the business world is built upon Microsoft products. They earn unreal amounts of cash by selling OS, Office and Server licenses and they can afford to make a lot of mistakes in peripheral areas. Everybody is focusing on the Surface tablet but that's not what owning shares in Microsoft is about.

 

Opinions?

 

Agree with you - but still tough to watch them pile up the mistakes - just return the money to the owners, don't give management the billions of rope to hang itself because on capital allocation I would say their track record is pretty shite.

 

[Palantir]

http://allthingsd.com/20121113/in-the-sinofsky-departure-bill-gates-sided-with-the-other-steve-ballmer-at-microsoft/

 

This guy has to be nothing short of brilliant to wring Metro out of a company like Microsoft. He would make a great replacement to Forstall, if he could fit into Apple's culture. He seems to be the visionary, push-the-envelope type of guy.

 

This comment that SteveSi could replace Forstall is really misplaced...then again on the other hand I personally wondered if Forstall could replace SteveSi. (as you might know his bro is at MSFT)

 

Do take note that Metro was a pretty big collaboration of more than just SteveSi, and given that JulieLG was a big player in it as well gives me confidence that the process will continue.

[Palantir]

Nevertheless I was out of lien on that personal attack, and have deleted my comments.

[writser]

If you are offended I am sorry. I was not referring to you unless you were one of the sellers today. And yes, Windows 8, Bing and Windows Phones are fantastic products by most accounts, but not from a financial standpoint. Windows 8 sales are "modest" so far according to Ballmer, Bing has never made a profit and Windows Phone market share is much smaller than Android / iPhone.  I had no strong feelings about mr. Sinofsky becoming or not becoming the next CEO. The one guy at Microsoft I have a very high opinion about is Bill Gates. If he supported Steve Ballmer in this fight who am I to disagree? He's a close friend of Warren Buffett and he owns a few hundred million shares. He's probably the single one guy in the world that can make the best decision here.

 

The point I was trying to make: stuff like this always hits the news and the market reacts strongly upon it. What you never read in the newspaper is: "This company makes 30 billion dollars cash a year selling boring products to boring businesses. The chairman owns a shitload of shares and is a very smart guy. As long as they don't do anything retarded the current valuation is probably on the low side. Ignore all news and look at your investment again in a couple of years". That's what I try to do. Ignore the hype, focus on cash flow, balance sheet and what they did the past 20 years.

[Palantir]

If you are offended I am sorry. I was not referring to you unless you were one of the sellers today. And yes, Windows 8, Bing and Windows Phones are fantastic products by most accounts, but not from a financial standpoint. Windows 8 sales are "modest" so far according to Ballmer, Bing has never made a profit and Windows Phone market share is much smaller than Android / iPhone.  I had no strong feelings about mr. Sinofsky becoming or not becoming the next CEO. The one guy at Microsoft I have a very high opinion about is Bill Gates. If he supported Steve Ballmer in this fight who am I to disagree? He's a close friend of Warren Buffett and he owns a few hundred million shares. He's probably the single one guy in the world that can make the best decision here.

 

The point I was trying to make: stuff like this always hits the news and the market reacts strongly upon it. What you never read in the newspaper is: "This company makes 30 billion dollars cash a year selling boring products to boring businesses. The chairman owns a shitload of shares and is a very smart guy. As long as they don't do anything retarded the current valuation is probably on the low side. Ignore all news and look at your investment again in a couple of years". That's what I try to do. Ignore the hype, focus on cash flow, balance sheet and what they did the past 20 years.

Again, my apologies for the unwarranted ad hominem attack.

 

I don't rate Bill Gates' opinion very highly when it comes to consumer products. He's a brilliant developer who has shown many times he is unable to adequately develop consumer products. Much of the blame that has been aimed at Steve Ballmer can be equally applied to Bill Gates's own mistakes. Do you think something like Metro could have happened under BillG?

 

The reason many are concerned about this departure is because many (including me) think MSFT has potential for tremendous upside and growth in online, mobile, and tablet markets, apart from its dominance in enterprise you noted. It appeared that MSFT was taking steps to achieve growth in these areas with SteveSi at the forefront. He was an executive who had deep software knowledge and a track record of good delivering products on time. With his departure, it's no longer obvious who the "product guy" is at MSFT.

[FrankArabia]

If you are offended I am sorry. I was not referring to you unless you were one of the sellers today. And yes, Windows 8, Bing and Windows Phones are fantastic products by most accounts, but not from a financial standpoint. Windows 8 sales are "modest" so far according to Ballmer, Bing has never made a profit and Windows Phone market share is much smaller than Android / iPhone.  I had no strong feelings about mr. Sinofsky becoming or not becoming the next CEO. The one guy at Microsoft I have a very high opinion about is Bill Gates. If he supported Steve Ballmer in this fight who am I to disagree? He's a close friend of Warren Buffett and he owns a few hundred million shares. He's probably the single one guy in the world that can make the best decision here.

 

The point I was trying to make: stuff like this always hits the news and the market reacts strongly upon it. What you never read in the newspaper is: "This company makes 30 billion dollars cash a year selling boring products to boring businesses. The chairman owns a shitload of shares and is a very smart guy. As long as they don't do anything retarded the current valuation is probably on the low side. Ignore all news and look at your investment again in a couple of years". That's what I try to do. Ignore the hype, focus on cash flow, balance sheet and what they did the past 20 years.

Again, my apologies for the unwarranted ad hominem attack.

 

I don't rate Bill Gates' opinion very highly when it comes to consumer products. He's a brilliant developer who has shown many times he is unable to adequately develop consumer products. Much of the blame that has been aimed at Steve Ballmer can be equally applied to Bill Gates's own mistakes. Do you think something like Metro could have happened under BillG?

 

The reason many are concerned about this departure is because many (including me) think MSFT has potential for tremendous upside and growth in online, mobile, and tablet markets, apart from its dominance in enterprise you noted. It appeared that MSFT was taking steps to achieve growth in these areas with SteveSi at the forefront. He was an executive who had deep software knowledge and a track record of good delivering products on time. With his departure, it's no longer obvious who the "product guy" is at MSFT.

 

whats the matter with you palantir attacking innocent people?

[Guest valueInv]

http://allthingsd.com/20121113/in-the-sinofsky-departure-bill-gates-sided-with-the-other-steve-ballmer-at-microsoft/

 

This guy has to be nothing short of brilliant to wring Metro out of a company like Microsoft. He would make a great replacement to Forstall, if he could fit into Apple's culture. He seems to be the visionary, push-the-envelope type of guy.

 

This comment that SteveSi could replace Forstall is really misplaced...then again on the other hand I personally wondered if Forstall could replace SteveSi. (as you might know his bro is at MSFT).

Why do you believe it is misplaced?

[Palantir]

 

Why do you believe it is misplaced?

 

Do you really think a strong and abrasive personality like SteveSi would ever fit in at Apple? Would Tim Cook tolerate another alpha male who's a threat to his leadership, especially one from Microsoft? *shudder*

 

Coincidentally, both Apple and Microsoft noted needs for more "collaboration" across divisions as both of these managers were building their own kingdoms within the company.....Microsoft's been copying Apple again... ;D

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

windows 8 is a flawed product. the concept is flawed. the design is flawed. it needed about another 9 months of refinement. that's not SS fault because he was under deadline. the surface is a flawed product. it is beta-ware. it remains to be seen if it will ever be a good product. ss knows how to bring products out on time. I would not call him a visionary. I would call him a great product manager. And to think he could be CEO of msft without knowing if he understands how to allocate capital, is presumptuous.

[ItsAValueTrap]

Do you think something like Metro could have happened under BillG?

BillG still works for Microsoft.

 

To me Metro is a reasonable idea since tablets have similarities to laptops.  It is Microsoft trying to spread the Windows software ecosystem and all of its software to tablets.  For example, there are games like Plants versus Zombies that are developed for PC and ported to tablets and smartphones.  Strengthening Windows' software ecosystem maintains Microsoft's moat and protects it from tablets being an inflection point that wipes out Windows' dominance (if you buy the whole tablets are going to replace PCs silliness).

 

On the other hand, user interfaces that work well for both tablets and desktops may not necessarily be a great idea.  I think a lot of people will hate Windows 8 and will be frustrated by it.  Yet like Microsoft Vista, a bad OS release will not hurt Microsoft much.