Jump to content

MSFT - Microsoft


Viking

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 937
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

One of the strongest companies on earth, operationally and financially. Great opportunity. I own a ton (have done since 2010) and see greater value elsewhere, so won’t buy more. But it sailed through 2008/9 and will do so again.

 

I agree; great company, ideally positioned. At todays closing price it is trading at 24 times peak earnings. Doesn’t look like a bear market multiple to me.

 

No, but Christ. You’ve got a good chance of compounding earnings in double digits for years. You’ve got one of only two (I think) AAA balance sheets left. Do you really need a bear market multiple?

 

I got this originally on 7x EV/FCF. But those are once in a lifetime opportunities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put in limit order at $100. Maybe a quick blip and my order gets filled .

 

If that gets filled I hope you put your whole portfolio into it ;)

 

One can get lucky  :D

 

100 wasn’t that long ago? 2018 prices?

 

True but the company has moved on quite a way since then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/13/microsoft-announces-change-to-its-board-of-directors/

 

Microsoft Corp. today announced that Co-Founder and Technology Advisor Bill Gates stepped down from the company’s Board of Directors to dedicate more time to his philanthropic priorities

 

He will continue to serve as Technology Advisor to CEO Satya Nadella and other leaders in the company.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/13/microsoft-announces-change-to-its-board-of-directors/

 

Microsoft Corp. today announced that Co-Founder and Technology Advisor Bill Gates stepped down from the company’s Board of Directors to dedicate more time to his philanthropic priorities

 

He will continue to serve as Technology Advisor to CEO Satya Nadella and other leaders in the company.

 

End of an era.  What Gates has built and accomplished in business and philanthropy (and continues to do) is astounding.  More than most leaders do in a dozen lifetimes.  I can't wait to see what focusing on the foundation full time does for humanity. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/13/microsoft-announces-change-to-its-board-of-directors/

 

Microsoft Corp. today announced that Co-Founder and Technology Advisor Bill Gates stepped down from the company’s Board of Directors to dedicate more time to his philanthropic priorities

 

He will continue to serve as Technology Advisor to CEO Satya Nadella and other leaders in the company.

 

End of an era.  What Gates has built and accomplished in business and philanthropy (and continues to do) is astounding.  More than most leaders do in a dozen lifetimes.  I can't wait to see what focusing on the foundation full time does for humanity.

 

Agreed. One of my great heroes, and it’s a short list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

I've heard that MS Teams and Azure use is pretty much exploding.

 

Not sure I like the valuation still though. For current valuation to be exciting I'd have to assume >10% (if not >15%) growth rate long term...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

What I hate about Microsoft services for individuals is that they require to login to your computer with Microsoft account. This IMO sucks. We share computers and I don't want each computer to have multiple users with Microsoft account linkage and have to deal with account switching, backing up disk space for each account, etc.

 

I hope Microsoft disentangles MS Office (whatever it's called) from Windows login. Like Skype is so far not connected to Windows login, so that's good.

 

Overall though I might stay on my last purchased MS Office (2019, I think) and not move to subscription for as long as I can...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've heard that MS Teams and Azure use is pretty much exploding.

 

Not sure I like the valuation still though. For current valuation to be exciting I'd have to assume >10% (if not >15%) growth rate long term...

 

Depends what you call exciting. This is one of the best businesses on the planet, with high switching costs, a vast addressable market, and huge incremental margins - in other words a perpetuity with revenue growth and operating leverage. You can buy that at a 4% free cash flow yield. I wouldn't call that cheap, exactly, but it leaves room for a very nice compounded return with (I believe) relatively low risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

Q1 (fiscal Q3):

 

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2020-Q3/press-release-webcast

 

·        Revenue was $35.0 billion and increased 15%

 

·        Operating income was $13.0 billion and increased 25%

 

·        Net income was $10.8 billion and increased 22%

 

·        Diluted earnings per share was $1.40 and increased 23%

 

Azure revenue growth of 59% (up 61% in constant currency)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

The next billion users on social media are in emerging nations such as India and south-east asia. Given the hostilities between India and China resulted in India banning TikTok, and frictions between China and its other neighbrs such as Vietnam one can see the benefit of Microsoft owning TikTok and its infrastructure. Starting with TikTok assets of US/Canada/Australia/New Zealand it can expand into India and other countries. With the original TikTok effectively banned either currently or in future prohibited to enter such large markets due to geopolitical concerns, Microsoft can acquire an asset that can give it a head start to effectively compete with Facebook in these emerging markets.

 

P.S: Near end of last year, 30% of indian smartphones had TikTok installed -

https://qz.com/india/1742654/why-tiktoks-india-growth-has-been-better-than-instagram-amazon/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Microsofts biggest edge against the rest of the super techs, to me at least, is the benefit of seemingly sitting completely off the radar of this whole government initiative to harass the big tech companies.

 

Imagine FB or GOOG trying to make this acquisition? MSFT will be a big benefactor of this in the M&A game. Google cant even buy a stupid watch company without a full fledged investigation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MSFT is apparently considering buying... Tiktok from Bytedance

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/technology/tiktok-microsoft.html

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

That makes no sense. WTF.

 

It makes all the sense in the world and would be a huge plus MSFT. They could really give FB a run for the money.

No, it's really, really dumb. For one thing Microsoft is really, really bad ad social media. It's not in their DNA. Microsoft was one of the original social media networks. That was when they added MSN Spaces (anyone remember that?) which was actually really good to their MSN Messenger App which was the dominant messenger app at the time.

 

Also, remember that time when Microsoft made a fairly large, fairly early investment in Facebook? That should have brought some benefits right? Well...

 

Microsoft is a great company, but this is just not what it does. It's not good at it. As a shareholder I wish they wouldn't waste my money on it. But as a shareholder I know that Microsoft every now and then wastes some my money on shiny things that look pretty. It's just how life is. I build it in my models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MSFT is apparently considering buying... Tiktok from Bytedance

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/technology/tiktok-microsoft.html

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

That makes no sense. WTF.

 

It makes all the sense in the world and would be a huge plus MSFT. They could really give FB a run for the money.

No, it's really, really dumb. For one thing Microsoft is really, really bad ad social media. It's not in their DNA. Microsoft was one of the original social media networks. That was when they added MSN Spaces (anyone remember that?) which was actually really good to their MSN Messenger App which was the dominant messenger app at the time.

 

Also, remember that time when Microsoft made a fairly large, fairly early investment in Facebook? That should have brought some benefits right? Well...

 

Microsoft is a great company, but this is just not what it does. It's not good at it. As a shareholder I wish they wouldn't waste my money on it. But as a shareholder I know that Microsoft every now and then wastes some my money on shiny things that look pretty. It's just how life is. I build it in my models.

 

The jury is still out on this one no doubt. However, one could have said the same thing about their GitHub acquisition a couple of years back, that it is not in their DNA to support open source projects. In fact they were openly hostile to open source for a very long time. Questions about what is Microsoft doing buying an open source repo for 7.5Bil with no path to revenue from this acquisition that will compensate for the spend. Now GitHub is a growth engine that is feeding into its cloud growth (https://cloudwars.co/microsoft/microsoft-hypergrowth-beyond-azure-q4-2020-earnings-call/). I will not yet count Satya Nadella out on this one as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently, the CEO talked to Trump and planning to bag it by Sept 15.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/microsoft-confirms-talks-to-buy-tiktok-in-us.html

 

To echo an earlier comment, it is amazing, it has been 4 years or so since Microsoft had bought Linkedin, and i totally forgot about it and no one seem to complaining about it and it just completely off the radar.

 

Cannot say the same thing about Whole Food and Amazon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...