MSFT - Microsoft

[Palantir]

The people who criticise Steve Ballmer and lionize Gates conveniently forget that Gates was in charge of Microsoft for a large part of the period that Microsoft "missed out" on all these "trends", and in many ways, it's Gates' own failings of being unable to grasp emerging trends, and not having any understanding of consumer products and design that have truly set Microsoft up for failure over this past decade.

 

 

Ballmer is still new into the role of CEO and the company has changed dramatically from the MSFT of yesterday.

 

I don't think anybody lionizes Gates other than for being a great philanthropist. under his watch msft was prosecuted as a monopolist. and he didn't forsee the Internet's impact nor did he foresee the impact of mobile. Ballmer in a sense inherited a company that was ill prepared for the coming changes. of course ballmer has impacted msft with his own lack of vision and judgement. Ballmer is most definitely Not new to the role of CEO. He has had ample time to put his stamp on the company.

 

They missed on smartphones and tablets, but Gates was not at the helm any longer.  He was dead on regarding the internet...in fact he was there years earlier than anyone else.  Read his two books...he saw the changes the internet was bringing.  The precursor to all of the internet/television fusion that we see today was started by Microsoft nearly 12 years ago with WebTV.  It was just too early and didn't take.  I had one and used it quite a bit, but no one else thought the two mediums belonged together...that is until the last few years.  Cheers!

 

I think you're mistaken. Gates himself didn't grasp the internet that well at all, and he totally failed to see its relevance to a desktop software company like MSFT (Paul Allen mentions Gates dismissing the concept of email, Sinofsky notes that it was he who informed Bill Gates of email). It was only in response to this trend emerging that MS went all in on the internet. Bill Gates will talk about how important the internet is after it has already happened, but during the time he actually led the company, we saw zero. Bill Gates sees a trend happening, and after it develops they try to capture it, and not always successfully. MS still doesn't have much of a web presence.

 

It is not correct that the smartphones and tablets "miss" was under Ballmer. Gates may have resigned in 2000, but exercised vast influence till 08. MS had smartphones and tablets years ago, (Remember Windows CE?). MS had been developing a tablet almost ten years ago (Steve Jobs' biography mentions this). Gates was a bright guy, but when it comes to consumer products, he seems to have little insight.

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

kin was under ballmer. zune was under ballmer. vista was under ballmer. windows mobile was under ballmer. bing is under ballmer. almost paying $$44b (now worth about half that almost 5 years later) for yahoo just as the economy was about to go off a cliff was under ballmer. he was actually saved by a CEO with even poorer judgement. aQunative was under ballmer. jury is still out on huge amount he paid for Skype. jury is still out on surface and windows 8.

[Palantir]

Bill gates was there the whole time!

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

Bill gates was there the whole time!

 

sorry. that's a really poor argument. the CEO is the bottom line. gates did not make these decisions. gates was all but checked out. he was moving to philanthropy. the CEO is responsible. Ballmer has been terrible for the stock price. I can't see how you can defend him. many of the decisions were made after gates had exited stage left.

 

If you would have asked me 5 and 10 years ago who was better positioned, oracle or msft, I would have instantly said msft. yet Ellison has been far better at creating shareholder value over the last 10 and especially over the last 5 years. Same with IBM. they had poorer hands than msft yet they created way more value than msft ceo.

[Parsad]

kin was under ballmer. zune was under ballmer. vista was under ballmer. windows mobile was under ballmer. bing is under ballmer. almost paying $$44b (now worth about half that almost 5 years later) for yahoo just as the economy was about to go off a cliff was under ballmer. he was actually saved by a CEO with even poorer judgement. aQunative was under ballmer. jury is still out on huge amount he paid for Skype. jury s still out on surface and windows 8.

 

He's done only a few things right and that's been on the corporate side...buying back shares, paying a dividend, etc. 

 

But let's not forget the monkey boy dance!  That was so wrong, and nothing he will ever do will take away the scorching image of his frat boy, psychotic, monkey boy dance.  Thank God he wasn't wearing a turtleneck when he did it!  Cheers!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

He's done only a few things right and that's been on the corporate side...buying back shares, paying a dividend, etc. 

 

But let's not forget the monkey boy dance!  That was so wrong, and nothing he will ever do will take away the scorching image of his frat boy, psychotic, monkey boy dance.  Thank God he wasn't wearing a turtleneck when he did it!  Cheers!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc

 

instead of buying aQunative and Skype, he should have bought back way more stock and paid a higher dividend!

[VAL9000]

I think you're mistaken. Gates himself didn't grasp the internet that well at all, and he totally failed to see its relevance to a desktop software company like MSFT (Paul Allen mentions Gates dismissing the concept of email, Sinofsky notes that it was he who informed Bill Gates of email). It was only in response to this trend emerging that MS went all in on the internet. Bill Gates will talk about how important the internet is after it has already happened, but during the time he actually led the company, we saw zero. Bill Gates sees a trend happening, and after it develops they try to capture it, and not always successfully. MS still doesn't have much of a web presence.

 

I think it's you that's mistaken.  Not many people saw what the internet would be back in 1995, but Bill Gates published a stunningly accurate prediction of how the internet would shape the software industry.  Here is an internal memo that was used to orient Microsoft's strategy in the late '90s:

 

http://www.lettersofnote.com/2011/07/internet-tidal-wave.html

 

This letter clearly shows that Gates had a deep understanding of what the internet would become very early in the game.  How early?  Netscape was founded in April 1994 - one year prior to this memo.  That's a short time for the world's richest person to catch on.  I mention it that way because a guy like Bill doesn't have really any time to spare, and yet he was still figuring out what was new and making bold predictions for his super successful enterprise.  Can you imagine another CEO stating to his executives that one-year-old Netscape is a serious competitor?  It's incredibly bold and forward thinking.

 

It is not correct that the smartphones and tablets "miss" was under Ballmer. Gates may have resigned in 2000, but exercised vast influence till 08. MS had smartphones and tablets years ago, (Remember Windows CE?). MS had been developing a tablet almost ten years ago (Steve Jobs' biography mentions this). Gates was a bright guy, but when it comes to consumer products, he seems to have little insight.

 

Well it is correct that it was under Ballmer, because Ballmer was CEO when the tablet and the smartphone went from playthings to big business, and those big businesses started to cannibalize Microsoft's sales.  That is exactly what a miss is.  You are blaming Gates for this, fine, but here's where I have an issue.  Gates builds MSFT for 25 years into the biggest, baddest business the world has seen.  Then he retires and the company he built begins to lose its edge.  It dulls year by year, changing from a feared competitor into the butt of a joke over 10 short years.  Your theory is that Gates stuck around for too long?  The data just doesn't show that this is the case, and I have to disagree with you here.

 

[ItsAValueTrap]

Who cares if Ballmer is not the world's best CEO?  So far, Microsoft has been making a lot of money.

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/msft

For the last 10 years, revenue/share has grown every year.

Earnings per share has been somewhat lumpy but has also been consistently growing.

Microsoft has been making a lot of money... what's not to like with that?

 

As far as the future goes, Microsoft is one of the very few tech stocks that has an unusual competitive advantage (the Windows ecosystem and all the 3rd party software that will only run on Windows).  I don't know if it will continue to be durable, but the companies with unusual advantages tend to do better than everybody else.

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

I think it's you that's mistaken.  Not many people saw what the internet would be back in 1995, but Bill Gates published a stunningly accurate prediction of how the internet would shape the software industry.  Here is an internal memo that was used to orient Microsoft's strategy in the late '90s:

 

http://www.lettersofnote.com/2011/07/internet-tidal-wave.html

 

This letter clearly shows that Gates had a deep understanding of what the internet would become very early in the game.  How early?  Netscape was founded in April 1994 - one year prior to this memo.  That's a short time for the world's richest person to catch on.  I mention it that way because a guy like Bill doesn't have really any time to spare, and yet he was still figuring out what was new and making bold predictions for his super successful enterprise.  Can you imagine another CEO stating to his executives that one-year-old Netscape is a serious competitor?  It's incredibly bold and forward thinking.

 

 

Well netscape was founded over a year earlier. so I hope that he had some vision over a year later that the Internet was going to be a big thing and was able to write a memo on it. MSN was a failure and here we are in 2013 and Bing still loses billions every year. So you could argue that msft still does not get the Internet and how to make money from it 18 years after his "visionary" memo. Gates always scheduled time to "think". He would go away for a week and just read. So it's a fallacy that such a "rich" person didn't have the time to think about things. This was in his prime as CEO of msft, and it was his job to think about risk, and the future.

[VAL9000]

Who cares if Ballmer is not the world's best CEO?  So far, Microsoft has been making a lot of money.

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/msft

For the last 10 years, revenue/share has grown every year.

Earnings per share has been somewhat lumpy but has also been consistently growing.

Microsoft has been making a lot of money... what's not to like with that?

 

As far as the future goes, Microsoft is one of the very few tech stocks that has an unusual competitive advantage (the Windows ecosystem and all the 3rd party software that will only run on Windows).  I don't know if it will continue to be durable, but the companies with unusual advantages tend to do better than everybody else.

 

The issue is the same issue that Apple has - investors are forecasting that earnings will falter due to competition in the markets they generate the most profit in.

 

Let's look at Microsoft's businesses and what's happening:

1. Microsoft Windows - OS X, iOS, ChromeOS, and Android are relevant competitors, none of which existed 10 years ago.  These competitors are mostly preferred in the consumer space, and the business space isn't far behind.  Look at where business investment is going - software in the cloud.  This means software is running through the browser instead of on the OS.  This makes the OS irrelevant and much, much easier to switch.  Also, you don't have to upgrade to run legacy apps.  Sometimes you can't.

2. Microsoft Office - Google Apps is gaining traction.  Office 365 is a response to that, but Microsoft has yet to reshape this business unit to take on the low-cost "good enough" competitor.  It may not stick but it's the best threat Office has seen in 2 decades.

3. Servers and Tools - Again, software in the cloud.  I can rent a SQL server from Amazon, build a SharePoint equivalent in SalesForce, use gmail instead of Exchange, etc.  IT no longer has to deal with running hardware and software, they can just rent out.  Much easier and they don't take the heat.

4. Xbox (and a bunch of money losing stuff).  Xbox has great presence in the living room, but the competition is growing every day.  The traditional console model has all but run its course.  Microsoft needs to reshape its strategy accordingly.  Probably more device development like Kinect and Wii U, rather than another 7 year console cycle.

 

So, Microsoft makes a ton of money but 4 of the 4 business units are under siege.  It's likely that all four units will need to revise their strategies, and that could wipe out profits over the coming 5 years.  And that is why people care who is the CEO.  Not many CEOs can articulate and execute strategy across four separate business lines at the same time and have them all work out.

[VAL9000]

Well netscape was founded over a year earlier. so I hope that he had some vision over a year later that the Internet was going to be a big thing and was able to write a memo on it. MSN was a failure and here we are in 2013 and Bing still loses billions every quarter. So you could argue that msft still does not get the Internet and how to make money from it 18 years after his "visionary" memo. Gates always scheduled time to "think". He would go away for a week and just read. So it's a fallacy that such a "rich" person didn't have the time to think about things. This was in his prime as CEO of msft, and it was his job to think about risk, and the future.

 

You're right it was his job and he did damn well in that job.  So what are you arguing about?  I never said Microsoft gets it today.  I said Gates got it and Microsoft thrived in that time.  You're conflating two completely separate trains of thought.  In fact, you're conflating the two opposite ends of an argument that I am making in the exact post you quoted.

 

If you think it's easy to predict which of the thousands of year-old start-ups are going to give a multi-billion dollar business a run for its money, you should stop dicking around on this board and go be a VC already.  It's evident that you have a week every year to do some reading, so why haven't I read Peter Burke's name in the papers?

 

[VAL9000]

Sinofsky notes that it was he who informed Bill Gates of email

 

I really doubt this.  Sinofsky joined Microsoft in 1989.  Microsoft bought InterMail, an email application for the Mac, in 1987.

 

[ItsAValueTrap]

Why can't you just put me on ignore?

Is there a way to block people on this forum?

[VAL9000]

If you think it's easy to predict which of the thousands of year-old start-ups are going to give a multi-billion dollar business a run for its money, you should stop dicking around on this board and go be a VC already.  It's evident that you have a week every year to do some reading, so why haven't I read Peter Burke's name in the papers?

 

This was a bit harsh of me, sorry.  I was annoyed because you took my post and twisted it to look like something else entirely.

 

[Guest rimm_never_sleeps]

If you think it's easy to predict which of the thousands of year-old start-ups are going to give a multi-billion dollar business a run for its money, you should stop dicking around on this board and go be a VC already.  It's evident that you have a week every year to do some reading, so why haven't I read Peter Burke's name in the papers?

 

This was a bit harsh of me, sorry.  I was annoyed because you took my post and twisted it to look like something else entirely.

 

no problem. cheers. and happy new year.  8)

[kevin4u2]

On every tablet, websites are hit or miss whether or not you can actually access the pull down menus.  This is because of how the websites were developed and are not touch friendly but for use with a mouse. 

 

Which tablets have you experienced this on? I'm not sure I recall any sites on the when using iPad Safari where I was unable to access drop-down menus.

 

Wow, congratulations your the first person I've ever talked to that has never experienced this issue. 

 

Here you go...http://webdesignboston.com/2012/01/creating-ipad-friendly-drop-down-menus/

[onyx1]

http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-windows-8-department-of-defense-2013-1

 

 

Big Window 8 order for 330k members in Deptartment of Defense.

 

"Other enterprises can now expect a sales pitch like this: 'If Windows 8 is secure enough for the Department of Defense, it's secure enough for the average enterprise.' "

[rkbabang]

I just installed Windows 8 on my son's computer.  It's an old machine I built in 2005 or so, single core AMD processor, 4GB of memory.  It had a 80GB hard drive in it and running Windows XP.  I backed that up with all his personal files and bought a new hard drive to do a clean install of Win8. 

 

I have to say I was prepared to hate it, based on everything I've read, but after doing the install, setting up the system, and using it for a few hours, I really like it.    It runs quicker than XP did on that old hardware, it boots quicker, programs start quicker, everything just seems to run better.  And I actually think the new start screen/all programs screen/desktop screen interface is an improvement. 

 

They got rid of the start menu which I always hated anyway, and now there's a whole full screen "start" screen where you can keep short cuts to the programs you run most.  You can also get to a full screen version of the all programs feature that used to be a button in the start menu (I also always hated this too), now it is full screen.  And of course you can go to your desktop and pretty much use it as you would windows 7. 

 

Not bad, I think between the quicker running and how easy it was to install, once people get used to the interface people will switch and not look back. 

 

I'm going to order the DVDs to update my main home computer to win8.  It is also still running XP and Ubuntu Linux.  I'm keeping Ubuntu of course.

[ericd1]

One problem I've had will almost every MS upgrade is with the printer drivers. Seems the existing drivers won't work and the mfgs don't upgrade the older drivers. Is Win 8 any different?

[rkbabang]

One problem I've had will almost every MS upgrade is with the printer drivers. Seems the existing drivers won't work and the mfgs don't upgrade the older drivers. Is Win 8 any different?

 

He doesn't have a printer in his room.  When I upgrade the computer in our study I'll let you know if I run into a problem getting the printer to work.

[petec]

I've had no problem with the printer on mine which I updated from W7.  I basically agree with rkbabang and really like the metro interface in general and the news aggregators specifically.  I have two gripes.  It told me I would have to reinstall Office which is total nonsense - all I had to do was go into the programme folder, find the icons (for excel etc) and 'pin' them to the start screen.  They work fine.  Pretty stupid bit of PR to tell people they'll have to reinstall your flagship product.  And two, some things like opening mail/music/pictures etc are noticeably slow, but that may be because I just updated it on a W7 platform that was starting to run slow.  Once programmes are open they run slick.

 

Disclosure: long MSFT.

[sethatk]

Thought this was pretty neat.

 

[hyten1]

a question for everyone

 

if you need both laptop and tablet capability at your business which setup would you buy (both were you already have and don't have microsoft infrastructure within your firm)

 

ipad/andriod tablet + some laptop (pc, or mac)

window 8 tablet (this is all you need)

 

it seem to obvious the windows 8 tablet, this is all you need, one device does both a job of a tablet and laptop. your employee only need one device (you as a firm only need to worry about one infrastructure)

 

as oppose to the other options

 

hy

[RichardGibbons]

I had this issue at home, not at work.  My wife wanted a tablet, but also wanted the ability to use a keyboard and monitor when doing bigger content-creation tasks.

 

Eventually, we went with the Latitude 10 tablet with a docking station.  My reasoning for combining them was:

• Less stuff sitting around the house
  
• If you have two machines, you spend a lot of time transferring files or thinking about where stuff is rather than actually doing thing
  
• There are many tasks that have state (e.g. browsing, where the links change colour after you click them)  If you have two machines, you lose this state whenever you move between them.  To me, this is highly undesirable
  

It arrived on Thursday, and so far it's working well.  I quite like the tablet interface of Windows 8.  It's very natural and the way it's integrated into Appstore and other infrastructure is great.  We haven't done as much with it docked, but I feel like it will be less natural with the mouse.  I think it's a much more intuitive and smoothly integrated ecosystem than the Apple environment.

 

One of my concerns was that the processor (and/or graphics chip) wouldn't be powerful enough for some things.  This concern was borne out, as it was unable to run smoothly a first-person shooter when I tested it.  Nevertheless, I don't expect this to impact us on a day to day basis, as we're not doing a lot of computationally expensive stuff generally.

 

So, so far so good.  If I were getting something for business with those two requirements, I think this would be what I'd go with, unless your job involves something requiring serious computational power.

 

[rkbabang]

One problem I've had will almost every MS upgrade is with the printer drivers. Seems the existing drivers won't work and the mfgs don't upgrade the older drivers. Is Win 8 any different?

 

Just an update.  I did the upgrade on the main PC in our house this weekend.  I didn't do the upgrade I did a full new install, because I put in a new motherboard, processor, memory, and SSD.  So the install went fine.  My printer and scanner drivers were not included in the Windows 8 installation disk, so those where just "?" after the install was done.  Luckily both manufacturers (Canon for the printer and HP for the scanner) had the windows 8 driver downloads available on their websites. So I installed the new drivers and everything works.    One other driver issue, my son told me that Minecraft wasn't working on his PC, so I went to look at it and it was an OpenGL issue.  I downloaded the Windows 8 driver for his video chip from AMD and it worked after that.  So yes, you might want to check to see if your printer, scanner, and even video card drivers are available from the manufacturer before starting the install, because Microsoft may not have included them.  BTW, Windows 8 really flies on new machine: AMD 8-core FX-8320 processor, 16GB RAM, with an SSD.