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DreamWorks Animation Is Pioneer In "Cloud Atlas Strategy"

 

"It would seem that multi-platform branding is all-the-rage. Marvel announced its big Netflix series deal to branch out four of its smaller-scale superheroes to compliment the current Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D. series, which will all exist in the same universe as the ongoing feature films.

 

The new Terminator reboot will exist both in feature film form and in an episodic television series. Everyone is wondering what kind of interconnected universe Warner Bros. is planning with its DC properties, specifically whether its present and future television universes (CW’s Arrow and The Flash, Fox's  Gordon series) will exist in the same universe as each other and/or the Man Of Steel DC universe.

 

But one of the first big tests for this new “Cloud Atlas strategy” (“everything is connected”) comes from the most unlikely of places: DreamWorks Animation..."

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2013/12/24/dreamworks-animation-is-patient-zero-in-franchise-interconnectivity/

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A key learning for me over the past couple of years is to be more patient after a purchase has been made and not be happy with a quick 20% or 30% gain. It takes a great amount of work to find undervalued well run companies with very strong franchises. As the underlying business improves and Mr Market falls back in love with the company moves in the stock price of 100% are not uncommon. 

 

 

+1

 

 

very true.

 

I settle for the quick gains too often. I must learn to be more patient...

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  • 5 months later...

what is so good about this one. Doesnt generate any FCF in last 3 years, trades on a expensive PE ratio. Looks like a crappy business. Latest 10q has negative gross margins.

 

Thesis: future free cash flow from library is not reflected in income statement.

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They've had a couple of flops recently which has hurt the thesis (especially when you only put out 3-4 films per year).  Cash flow should continue to be poor for the next year as these flops work through the pipeline but a couple of big wins this year should start to help. How To Train Your Dragon 2 should easily generate $500-600M at box office and big digital sales which will flow to cash flow starting next year.  In addition, katzenberg has majorly diversified the revenue and cash flow streams with TV deals and theme parks (on which they get licensing revenue but take little financial risk).  They bought a YouTube channel last year for about 1/10th of the value it would go for today.  Finally, they have taken steps to reduce film production costs significantly without impacting quality.

 

But bottom line, your point is correct - there's no free cash flow today and you are investing in the success or failure of a limited number of big budget items.  But oh if they hit, they just churn out cash.

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this reminds me of LGF, which i failed to invest in when library revenues were getting to critical mass. somehow dreamworks worries me, as in that they don't care enough about making money. have to dig in to it a bit more over the week. price is going in the right direction now at least :)

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The problem primarily resides with the durability of the characters and the franchises. Neither the latest movies since Shrek or Madagascar have the magic "Disney" touch, nor do the characters in the film libraries purchased by Dreamworks. Unless Dreamworks gets its touch back in terms of the craft of storytelling, it will be hard to build durable franchises. The strength of Disney has always been that through good storytelling and character development they were able to build moats around individual characters that they could leverage across many platforms, but if the characters simply don't appeal to mass audiences, their earnings potential is limited.

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yeah i understand where you're coming from. personally i am fed up with disney's "let's make long haired people sing for 90 minutes" style of making movies. dreamworks has put out some great ones. i'm not sure it's cheap enough for investment yet, but i believe(or hope) there's room in the world for 2 profitable western animation studios.

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DWA looks interesting again in the teens.  Looking at private market value, I would find it hard to believe DWA would be bought for less than book value considering much of its historical library is either $0 or very little on the balance sheet.  Closer we get to book value the more attractive it becomes.

 

Long term the key things to watch are China and TV (including digital channels) in the US.  They are making big investments right now in China with Oriental DreamWorks but haven't harvested any of that investment yet.  The potential is huge (though not without risk of course).

 

The stock still trades on the boom/bust cycle of its movies so the volatility is crazy.  The market is right to be skeptical right now because they are on quite a cold streak and haven't proven that increasing the number of movies they produce will be helpful to their movie quality or the bottom line.  It's a hard company to buy and hold but we might get a good price soon with not too much downside.

 

Anyone see details re the SEC investigation?  Even if they have to write down Turbo a bit more it's noncash, so I'm not sure it's a big concern.

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yeah i understand where you're coming from. personally i am fed up with disney's "let's make long haired people sing for 90 minutes" style of making movies. dreamworks has put out some great ones. i'm not sure it's cheap enough for investment yet, but i believe(or hope) there's room in the world for 2 profitable western animation studios.

 

Have you seen Tangled? To me that was a return to form for Disney (though that was after they bought Pixar, so Ed Catmull certainly helped them refocus).

 

I stopped watching Frozen after they started singing, though...

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  • 1 month later...

also posted in Softbank thread...

 

 

 

Japan's SoftBank in talks to buy DreamWorks

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/28/us-dreamworks-anim-softbank-idUSKCN0HN03F20140928

 

 

The talks were first reported by the Hollywood Reporter, which quoted an unidentified source as saying a buyout would value DreamWorks at $3.4 billion.

 

The entertainment trade publication said SoftBank had offered $32 per share for DreamWorks, a substantial premium to the stock's Friday closing price of $22.36.

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"Joint ventures are tough.… It's like getting married," Fong said. "Instead of two people, you have two corporations getting married; we're the love child."

 

The company has quietly dropped a film called "Tibet Code," which Katzenberg unveiled at a Beijing news conference in April 2013 alongside Han Sanping, then-chairman of the powerful state-run distributor China Film Group.

 

The adventure story, based on a series of Chinese novels set in 9th century Tibet, has "all the makings of a world-class, quality, blockbuster franchise," Katzenberg told reporters then. He said the company could not come to terms with the producer who owned the rights to the book.

 

The $330 million that DreamWorks and its Chinese investment partners invested in Oriental DreamWorks includes money to build and staff the Shanghai studio.

 

Katzenberg declined to say how much money DreamWorks contributed to the deal, or how DreamWorks and its Chinese partners will divvy up revenue and profit.

 

But he said DreamWorks' 45% ownership stake in the joint venture limits its financial exposure.

 

"If it fails it will be a loss of our time and effort as opposed to damaging the underpinnings of the company," he said. "Not a huge downside, gigantic upside."

 

Also boding well for the partnership, Katzenberg said, is a strong partnership with media mogul Li Ruigang, chairman of China Media Capital.

 

"I feel like he has as much skin in this game and is determined that we win and succeed," Katzenberg said. "I just find him an excellent partner, even when we disagree."

 

How DreamWorks fares in China will be important to its future, analysts say.

 

"If China is going to surpass the U.S. box office in the next four or five years, having a strong foothold there is key," said Eric Wold, a media analyst with B. Riley & Co. "It could not only help turn [DreamWorks] around, it could be a major leg of the company."

 

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-china-dreamworks-20150609-story.html#page=2

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Interesting article. This part is also an important piece of info about ODW:

 

The creation of Oriental DreamWorks has already resulted in preferential treatment for "Kung Fu Panda 3" in China. The movie's recent designation as co-production will allow the company to receive a larger share of revenue than foreign studios typically receive when their films are allowed into China under its quota system.

 

Although Dreamworks is giving up 55% by going into China through a JV, it is also sharing the investments. Meanwhile, the way I understand this to work is that the % take on tickets almost doubles (close to the level that is standard in the rest of the world/U.S.) because of this setup. So that makes it a much better JV than you would think. 

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  • 10 months later...

i've traded this off and on selling calls and puts.  i made considerably less money that if i'd just held from when i first bought and sold today.

 

Said Yoda, "You are learning grasshopper." (oh, wait that was Karate Kid.)

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i've traded this off and on selling calls and puts.  i made considerably less money that if i'd just held from when i first bought and sold today.

 

I think that's often the case.. I looked at it for the hidden value of the content library but decided to pass. Would never expected Comcast to buy it, guess media companies are not as dead as people thought them to be.

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