moore_capital54 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Market leader beginning to look attractive. I don't have any research yet but thought I would throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I know a fair bit about solar power form the technological and environmental point of view, but not much about it from the business side. After a quick look, I was pleasantly surprised at their operating margins, low debt, and cashflow. It sounds like a capital intensive business, though, and while they might be a low cost producer now, and I can't think of what their moat would be. Might be good as a trade, waiting for it to get back to IV if it's below, but it seems risky, and not an ideal long-term holding since the future is so cloudy (no pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Having just shopped for and installed a solar PV system this summer, I can't see how any of the panel manufacturers make money! The price competition is brutal. By late summer, prices dropped another 30% from the great prices I got in the Spring. FSLR panels were not an option. Too much real estate. The low efficiency thin film types just take up too much room for the amount of power produced. Strictly for commercial purposes. My 20% efficient Sanyo's were the best watts/area bargain. The price battle is tough though, so I can't imagine margins for anyone will do anything but shrink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 misterstockwell, how do you like your system so far? How many kwh are you actually producing vs what the software models told you? What's your payback timeframe? Do you have any publicly available pics of your setup? Do you have battery storage? How much did the panels cost? Inverter + installation + batteries if you have them? I'm always curious about these things :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 misterstockwell, how do you like your system so far? How many kwh are you actually producing vs what the software models told you? What's your payback timeframe? Do you have any publicly available pics of your setup? Do you have battery storage? How much did the panels cost? Inverter + installation + batteries if you have them? I'm always curious about these things :) Ah, yes, same question(s) from me. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Funny that you talk about FSLR, because with the stock price declining lately, I was just thinking today maybe a big one like GE could buy them out at these price? Any thoughts? And as an investment, maybe it is better to bet on utilities than on technologies directly, as the name of the game is mostly about cutting cost once the technology works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Well heck if Algonquin can buy Wind I could definitely see a GE buying FSLR. Great M&A day for Canadian Juniors today, Auryx acquired by B2gold, and Sinopec buying Daylight Energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Is speculating on a buyout really the best investment strategy here though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 No, it is not speculation, I'm not looking at buying FSLR right now. It was just a curiosity of mine as a comment, not as an investing perspective! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Not forming an opinion, just thought I would throw it out on the board and see if anyone here has initiated the research. Ackman has a very good line its "Return on Invested Brain Damage" FSLR falls into that category for me :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crip1 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Mr. Stockwell, Same questions as Liberty. I looked into this a couple years back and could not rationalize a 30+ year payback (or, said differently, roughly a 3% yield with no principal to sell at the end of the proverbial 30 years). Being in Texas, we get tons of sunshine (though that's not vital, it does not hurt) and some massive energy bills during the summer so this is attractive. -Crip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 misterstockwell, how do you like your system so far? How many kwh are you actually producing vs what the software models told you? What's your payback timeframe? Do you have any publicly available pics of your setup? Do you have battery storage? How much did the panels cost? Inverter + installation + batteries if you have them? I'm always curious about these things :) Love the system, but didn't love the install so much. Only two months so far, and PVWatts was conservative on production numbers. I imagine that will even out over the year. PVWatts is supposed to be quite reliable. Payback is 8 years after 30% federal tax credit and 30% back from the state. It could be half that if I can sell my SRECs at a decent price each year. No batteries--this is strictly grid-tie. Used Enphase microinverters since I expected some shading issues. It was ~$40K for a 10.5kW system--my son and I did the install ourselves. The meter said 6665kWh when I flipped the switch, and it says 6190kWh now, so I am ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Very cool. Have you considered the leasing, no upfront cost, approach of SolarCity.com ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Very cool. Have you considered the leasing, no upfront cost, approach of SolarCity.com ? No, I would rather own something outright. Also, not sure how that leasing works with the tax credits and state rebates. That's the key to making it affordable here. Lots of rules in regards to state, local, and utility and how you qualify for rebate. The program was "sold out" in a few days here. I recall reading that some other state had exhausted its funds in a matter of hours(Florida maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Related to this whole discussion, I just got an email from solar supplier for USA made panels (Kyocera, Suniva, and SolarWorld) starting at $1/watt. That's a good example of the glut out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 FSLR's CEO is resigning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Down 25%! Anyone buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-22/first-solar-never-so-cheap-in-takeover-boon-for-energy-real-m-a.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 MASSIVE short squeeze going on now... Halted twice... Up 50% intraday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Maybe there is an obvious answer but why are residential panels being adopted faster (recently) than utility-scale operations? Is it due to the rapid increases in efficiency? Are the economics better for residential than utility-scale? If so, why [or how]? Are short-term subsidies playing a role? I'm not sure if these are right questions to be asking. Does anyone have any reading materials that summarize the solar industry, trends, outlook, laws/subsidies, and solar costs relative to other sources? Can anyone share their mental model of the industry and how they see it evolving relative to overall US energy production? I just don't know what I don't know when it comes to FSLR or the future of solar production. Thanks in advance for any help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvesting101 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This would be useful: http://www.brattle.com/news-and-knowledge/news/study-by-brattle-economists-quantifies-the-benefits-of-utility-scale-solar-pv I believe there is lot incentives being offered for residential solar currently due to taxes and lot of aggressive selling by solar company's sales agent who are working on commission. There was some discussion about economics of rooftop solar especially in California considering tax saving, electricity rates and sunshine availability by Ericopoly in general discussion section. Incentives by government are definitely are playing part in growth of rooftop solar but its installation and maintenance cost would be high compared to utility solar. If model is indeed effective it could be better managed by utility companies renting space on your rooftop for fixed payment and then owning and maintaining equipment on your rooftop. You could be benefit from scale of combining operation and also save on transmission infrastructure. But considering majority of transmission infrastructure is already in place, this approach might not be that beneficial to utility solar which can balance generation, fluctuations and storage better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Are the economics better for residential than utility-scale? No. Are short-term subsidies playing a role? Residential solar consumers sell electricity back to the grid at a much higher rate than utility solar producers. Look into "net metering". Residential rates cover the cost of electricity AND the cost of the transmission infrastructure. In a more rational system, electricity sold back to the grid would only be for the cost of electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can anybody post the FSLR short report from Sumzero from 01.08.16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingalsbe.parekh Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Share price is down to $29.04 today... Interesting price especially considering the Moapa commercial plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Share price is down to $29.04 today... Interesting price especially considering the Moapa commercial plant. What about the Moapa plant makes it particularly interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now