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bmichaud

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Up 43% at the opening?  Amazing.

 

I had a few January 2014 calls 9 of the $90 and one contract of the $140, which I recently (less than a month ago) sold for just above my cost basis breaking even for about $8K total.  Those calls would be worth over $56K right now.  I shouldn't have even looked.

 

Yikes.  Yeah, you need to block that one out of your memory.

 

But at least you weren't short it!

 

Yes, someone always has it worse.  I wouldn't short Netflix.

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Because a valuation of 583x earnings makes total sense.

 

Right - but perhaps this is being valued as a potential strap-on acquisition now.  In that case the question is not what it's earning now, but what its worth to Apple or Amazon.  One could start to probe that question by

1) holding its revenue constant and cutting out some SG&A, software and development costs, and what it pays for servers (since presumably an acquirer could do that cheaper)

2) Adding an estimate of revenue generated by cross-marketing, or motivating users of another ecosystem (Apple or Amazon) into signing up

3) Reducing content costs because a bigger player should have more purchasing power

 

I personally think the buyout story is overhyped, but who knows?

 

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I had a very unproductive weekend and binged on all 13 episodes of House of Cards.  It really is a good show, I just don't know why they put out all 13 at once.  Kevin Spacey was amazing.  Can't wait for the next season.

 

Francis Underwood is the new Heisenberg.

 

LOL same here - I've consumed 9 episodes so far this weekend.  Excellent show.  I'm looking forward to the next few episodes and the next season, too.

 

 

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I've just watched the first episode and thought it was so-so. Does it get better in subsequent episodes? Am I the only one finding a lot of the dialogue and acting kind of clunky?

 

It was still enjoyable, but I'm a bit disappointed. Maybe my expectations were too high.

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I've just watched the first episode and thought it was so-so. Does it get better in subsequent episodes? Am I the only one finding a lot of the dialogue and acting kind of clunky?

 

It was still enjoyable, but I'm a bit disappointed. Maybe my expectations were too high.

 

I think it gets better, but it doesn't match the original and they've really made it something else. It's an homage, definitely, but it's a very different style of show.

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I've just watched the first episode and thought it was so-so. Does it get better in subsequent episodes? Am I the only one finding a lot of the dialogue and acting kind of clunky?

 

It was still enjoyable, but I'm a bit disappointed. Maybe my expectations were too high.

 

I agree, the pilot wasn't great.  I also thought the same of Breaking Bad, which turned out to be great TV.

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One thing that nobody has said much about with respect to House of Cards is product placement.  I don't know how much Apple and Sony paid to be featured the way they were, but here are some things I picked up on:

- Everybody has an iPhone

- One scene had five iPhones and four iPads all in a single shot, plus a Mac and another iPhone in the vicinity

- "Oh is that a PS Vita?" - Frank Underwood

- The PlayStation 3 start-up sequence played in full in a scene

 

That's what I did pick up on.. Not sure what I completely missed - clothes, cars, drinks, etc.

 

A theory that I have subscribed to for a while is that services such as Netflix and YouTube will benefit hugely from product placement.  Not only can they give much better demographic data on their viewers, they can also link content delivery with call-to-action behaviour.  E.g. if I move my mouse while watching House of Cards I should get links that allow me to buy everything I see on screen at that time.  Other implementations may be better than this, but that's the idea.

 

Developing this market is an opportunity for NetFlix, YouTube, Hulu, etc. because they own the connection between consumer and content.  Owning the content, as Netflix does in this case, gives them the freedom to experiment freely with these new opportunities.

 

Just a thought.  I have no holdings in Netflix but this is interesting enough to me that I wanted to bring it up.

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One thing that nobody has said much about with respect to House of Cards is product placement.  I don't know how much Apple and Sony paid to be featured the way they were, but here are some things I picked up on:

- Everybody has an iPhone

- One scene had five iPhones and four iPads all in a single shot, plus a Mac and another iPhone in the vicinity

- "Oh is that a PS Vita?" - Frank Underwood

- The PlayStation 3 start-up sequence played in full in a scene

 

That's what I did pick up on.. Not sure what I completely missed - clothes, cars, drinks, etc.

 

A theory that I have subscribed to for a while is that services such as Netflix and YouTube will benefit hugely from product placement.  Not only can they give much better demographic data on their viewers, they can also link content delivery with call-to-action behaviour.  E.g. if I move my mouse while watching House of Cards I should get links that allow me to buy everything I see on screen at that time.  Other implementations may be better than this, but that's the idea.

 

Developing this market is an opportunity for NetFlix, YouTube, Hulu, etc. because they own the connection between consumer and content.  Owning the content, as Netflix does in this case, gives them the freedom to experiment freely with these new opportunities.

 

Just a thought.  I have no holdings in Netflix but this is interesting enough to me that I wanted to bring it up.

 

I'm on episode 9 now.  I like the show. I find it darkly entertaining.  Maybe because it provides me with comforting confirmation of my preexisting biases wrt Washington D.C..  I did notice the product placement, with Apple at least. The Apple logo is everywhere.  So much so that it is almost intrusive. There's a Mac on every desk, every character has an iPhone,  iPads all over the place, etc... 

 

There was even one scene where Underwood throws the iphone in the glass of water.  It didn't seem to fit in the story anywhere other than to call attention to the phone.

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Hey rkbabang, You could watch Frontline from PBS. That is the hard hitting realistic news reports out there. Especially the one where they cover the healthcare bill.

 

It's very difficult for me to watch any TV newscast (either leftwing or right). I have to fight the urge to shoot into the screen the whole time.  House of cards is fiction at least. The difference is the same as the difference between watching a horror movie verses watching a newscast about a serial killer in your own community. It's not entertaining when the horrors are real.

 

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http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/02/21/house_of_cards_netflix_subscribers_say_the_series_will_make_them_less_likely.html

 

" According to a survey by Cowen and Co. released last week, 86 percent of Netflix subscribers said having the access to watch House of Cards makes them less likely to cancel their subscriptions."

 

Not sure what "less likely" actually means in the real world, or if any of that will mean much for netflix in the end, but in any case, I'm enjoying the series and looking forward to Amazon and others financing high-quality TV. The real winner is the viewer!

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btw, anyone else caught the reference to Elon Musk (I think( in episode 12 of House of Cards?

 

Raymond Tusk, the billionaire who's never held public office  8)

 

 

update: Well, now that I'm farther along in the episode, I realize that the character is nothing like Musk. Either the reference is just in the name + billionaire, or it's accidental and I read too much into it. Oh well. It turns out that the character they created is closer in some ways to Buffett (house, office, age...).

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Just throwing it out there:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/netflix-to-pay-5-7b-for-future-content-NfBYeS5GR2OP91ou7YfraQ.html

 

and from the transcript:

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1360041-netflix-s-ceo-discusses-q1-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

Erin Kasenchak - Director, IR

Great. Let’s look at a few questions on financials. Could the company please quantify its off balance sheet content liability, specifically interested in those the total amount of obligation is outstanding, as well as the amount currently outstanding that is not on the balance sheet.

 

Reed Hastings - Chief Executive Officer

So I’ll answer this in total to because usually how we get this question. We had $5.6 billion liability -- $5.6 billion in commitment as of the end of December. That moved to $5.7 billion in commitments as of the end of March, $2.4 billion being part of liabilities on the balance sheet and $3.3 bill not on the balance sheet.

 

 

Up from 4.8 bn last year - I find this quite impressive

 

In perspective:

 

Total Assets as of 31/03/2013: 4.3 bn (1 bn cash)

 

=> Off balance sheet liability as % of TA: 77% - Which I find impressive and scary

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I know a lot of people here liked House of Cards. I enjoyed it a lot too, but I think I like their new series Orange is the New Black even more. It's not for everybody (fair amounts of lesbian sex, so if that's not your kind of thing...), but it's extremely well-written, well-acted, and well-produced. Big win for netflix, at least critically (not idea how well it's doing viewer-wise).

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I agree. I enjoyed Orange Is The New Black at least as much as House of Cards, I highly recommend it.  On the other hand I watched Netflix's other new show "Bad Samaritans" and wasn't very impressed at all.  Low budget, simple/no story, bad acting, stupid jokes, etc.  Not worth watching at all.

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I know a lot of people here liked House of Cards. I enjoyed it a lot too, but I think I like their new series Orange is the New Black even more. It's not for everybody (fair amounts of lesbian sex, so if that's not your kind of thing...), but it's extremely well-written, well-acted, and well-produced. Big win for netflix, at least critically (not idea how well it's doing viewer-wise).

 

I saw the above and it triggered my memory of this quote of Woody Allen's in his movie Love and Death, LOL,

 

Sonja: There are many different kinds of love, Boris. There's love between a man and a woman; between a mother and son...

Boris: Two women. Let's not forget my favorite.

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Thanks for the recommendation Liberty. Saw the first episode and it looks promising. House of Cards was brilliant, hope they keep it up because I'll need some replacement for Breaking Bad next year.

 

The amount of high quality shows has really gone upwards these last few years. Homeland, Hannibal, Boardwalk empire, Game of Thrones, House of Cards, ... There have of course been plenty of good shows these last 10-15 years but the amount has been increasing rapidly imo. I just looked at an overview of all the shows I watched, mostly during college. 51! And that's not including fluff like Lost and Prison Break! :o

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