TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Overstock on fire! Run baby run! Finally market value is catching up to intrinsic value. Byrne says will take private by end of year if the stock does not move up. Also, OSTK looking to separate blockchain investments with main business. Simplicity in the story should attract investors. Goal is to make investors compare Wayfair with OSTK. Look at market cap to sales. Ridiculous... Do you have the source where he said that? Just curious. No position so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spark411 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Here you go. Page 12 and 13. Thanks! file:///C:/Users/spark/Downloads/OSTK-USQ_Transcript_2017-08-03%20(1).pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Here you go. Page 12 and 13. Thanks! file:///C:/Users/spark/Downloads/OSTK-USQ_Transcript_2017-08-03%20(1).pdf That is a link to a file on your computer. EDIT: I found it online though. Thanks for the tip on where to look. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4095247-overstock-coms-ostk-ceo-patrick-byrne-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 "I’d be very interested in going private. And probably looking for the right partner, have some ideas." Wonder if he's referencing Prem given their history and the comment about looking for the right partners? Maybe I'm just biased given this is a Fairfax forum and I'm a member... Wish he'd given us a better idea of the value he sees in the company to know what his benchmark is for making something "strategic" happen. The stock is up nearly 30% since those comments so maybe that was enough to hold off any of the planned changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Congrats to those still in this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Congrats to those still in this! We bought tons in May and August...in fact, it was going to be double the size of any of our positions, but the order in August was only 1/5th filled! :( We have not sold any...fair value is in the $37-45 range, especially if they spin-off the blockchain business...that's about $10-13 by itself in this market, and Overstock retail is about $27-35. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 I hope the purchase was in a PDH account! Congrats to those still in this! We bought tons in May and August...in fact, it was going to be double the size of any of our positions, but the order in August was only 1/5th filled! :( We have not sold any...fair value is in the $37-45 range, especially if they spin-off the blockchain business...that's about $10-13 by itself in this market, and Overstock retail is about $27-35. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Spin off at earliest is 2019. Valuing the blockchain business is forecasting 2019. Occam would be sad with the assumption parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Congrats to those still in this! We bought tons in May and August...in fact, it was going to be double the size of any of our positions, but the order in August was only 1/5th filled! :( We have not sold any...fair value is in the $37-45 range, especially if they spin-off the blockchain business...that's about $10-13 by itself in this market, and Overstock retail is about $27-35. Cheers! Many years back I owned OSTK only to come back in a year or so ago after sitting out for maybe a decade. However, I bought small and pared it back in early 2017 and kept a small position until recently when I doubled it. So, it's still miniscule. That said, I'm really curious about your reasoning in trying to as you said: "going to be double the size of any of our positions". Now that there's talk of taking it private, I see the management in a new light. It shows a willingness either one, pump one's stock when proper financial reporting fails, or two, to thoroughly screw over existing, possibly very long term minority shareholders - usually at a price well below intrinsic value as estimated by those most able to determine it - the insiders themselves. No easier way to transfer wealth from your partners to yourself. (Wealth being not just the current value but the fact that it exists at all.) Note: as someone that traded in and out - I had no long term loyalty but I'm sure there would be others that have likely stuck with it for many many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kh812000 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Prior short seller Cohodes goes long.... He says OSTK generates 100mm in FCF. Anyone else see this? I dont see it at all in the #s but perhaps other initiatives/costs masking true cash generation of the ecommerce biz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 So what is the fairest thing to say? That OSTK is now attracting a lot of speculative buying or that it is or has been fundamentally undervalued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 So what is the fairest thing to say? That OSTK is now attracting a lot of speculative buying or that it is or has been fundamentally undervalued? Seems like it was fundamentally undervalued and the company shrewdly stoked speculative buying to catalyze that value. Not really my cup of tea, but I should have bought this. The setup was pretty obvious. For those who own already, I recommend holding. Speculation can take this much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Will Overstock's $500 Million ICO Trigger An Explosion In Blockchain, Cryptocurrencies? Oct. 26, 2017 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4116812-will-overstocks-500-million-ico-trigger-explosion-blockchain-cryptocurrencies Overstock.com: Blockchain And Used Cars? Oct. 26, 2017 excerpt: "If Overstock wants to cut expenses and further improve profitability, the next natural move is to move its e-commerce payments’ system to the blockchain. Without intermediaries but computers executing transparent trades between parties via smart contracts, costs can be significantly reduced. Many value added functions are under development to more efficiently and securely facilitate payments processing. Digital identities, for example, will soon update and encrypt universal customer IDs and credit profiles in real time. Overstock will not have to conduct its own credit checks before releasing a car loan to the bank accounts of car buyers. It might still be too early to say,..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4116724-overstock-com-blockchain-used-cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Seems like it was fundamentally undervalued and the company shrewdly stoked speculative buying to catalyze that value. Not really my cup of tea, but I should have bought this. The setup was pretty obvious. For those who own already, I recommend holding. Speculation can take this much higher. Damn, I wish I had listened to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 “Reflecting the high interest in bitcoin and blockchain, Byrne said about 850 people dialed into Overstock's third-quarter earnings call, according to a StreetAccount transcript. Byrne also said the call could be his last with the company as it currently exists.” https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/overstock-may-soar-if-sells-e-commerce-focuses-on-bitcoin-blockchain.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Saw a headline saying that George Soros bought into Overstock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Saw a headline saying that George Soros bought into Overstock "Soros invested in 2,472,188 shares for $40.10 per share" https://www.gurufocus.com/news/595550/george-soros-plunges-into-overstockcom If that is accurate with 25M shares outstanding that is 9.8% of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpaul88 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Was is not just warrants he exercised? Goes into good detail: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4123327-overstock-misplaced-investor-euphoria-will-end-losses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spark411 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Crazy good. Listen to the last 2 minutes. Clearly state catalyst. Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes. I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Crazy good. Listen to the last 2 minutes. Clearly state catalyst. Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes. I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable. Thoughts? I just sold half of my shares last week so I expect the stock to at least triple from here. If there is one thing I do consistently it is sell way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spark411 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 i'm having the same issue. I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up. I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns. At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price. using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price. very hard to decide what to do. the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff. hold like buffett or sell like pabrai? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Crazy good. Listen to the last 2 minutes. Clearly state catalyst. Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes. I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable. Thoughts? I just sold half of my shares last week so I expect the stock to at least triple from here. If there is one thing I do consistently it is sell way too early. i'm having the same issue. I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up. I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns. At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price. using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price. very hard to decide what to do. the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff. hold like buffett or sell like pabrai? Explain to me why you two are crying over this...after making such wonderful investments and enjoying terrific returns? The glass is half-full, not half-empty. Sell if you can't sleep...hold if you can sleep. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Crazy good. Listen to the last 2 minutes. Clearly state catalyst. Will be interesting to see how much higher it goes. I think the market cap equaling the total revenues is reasonable. Thoughts? I just sold half of my shares last week so I expect the stock to at least triple from here. If there is one thing I do consistently it is sell way too early. i'm having the same issue. I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up. I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns. At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price. using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price. very hard to decide what to do. the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff. hold like buffett or sell like pabrai? Explain to me why you two are crying over this...after making such wonderful investments and enjoying terrific returns? The glass is half-full, not half-empty. Sell if you can't sleep...hold if you can sleep. Cheers! I’m not crying. That’s why I held onto half of my shares so that I can sleep either way it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 i'm having the same issue. I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up. I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns. At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price. using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price. very hard to decide what to do. the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff. hold like buffett or sell like pabrai? Why should it trade at 1x sales? I think it should be based on earnings alone. I could care less about their sales if they can't make a profit. I think 60-75% of the value of the company right now is t0. t0 seems very speculative right now. It could be worth billions and OSTK is still under-valued or it could be worth nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Anyone here looking at the t0 token sale? There isn't much info on it on the website. Just this. https://tzero.com/news/2017/11/16/tzero-announces-launch-date-and-initial-terms-for-its-proposed-token-sale I'm going to register and see if I can get more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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