Guest ValueCarl Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I know I give Sam, I am a convicted felon, a lot of heat on this board, but we must never forget as investors and speculators alike, that this speculative game of chicken, many times with other peoples money(OPM), is a double edged sword. Let us not forget that Watsa and Chou get woodies when stocks that they are taking control stakes in, fall and keep falling hard! You wouldn't need to look much further than Buffett's sage advice in his letter this weekend, and the reason I sold his stock tied to his IBM example for "instruction." These men would ALL like to BUY the WHOLE WORLD for NOTHING, before they let it Rise on the BACKS of OTHERS AGAIN! >:( I haven't researched where they got those lowly interest 3.5 percent converts in "price" before they were paid par out the door, nor the associated strike prices attached to them which didn't happen in the form of issuing common stock, but I suspect it was probably 50 cents on the dollar. My point is the following: Many times the ENEMY RESIDES WITHIN! I'm still waiting for Sam to KNOCK us for a LOOP, however. ;D P.S. I won't buy Warren's stock for any more than he would while expecting a correction with Big Prem's defense vehicle--hedges--possibly working out better now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 All we need (I own a few shares) is someone at the top with at least some kind of discipline... And that is a key condition for the perfect turnaround investment so first, change management specially if is there is a one man rule problem. Watching from the distance. http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2009/11/08/turnaround-cases-premier-exhibitions-part-3-prxi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to financial results slides: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTI4ODgwfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1 * Slide 25: Outside Legal Expense: $16,069,000 * Slide 12: $8.5M reduction in corporate staff in January 2012. I guess this means they will save around $24M in 2012 compared to 2011? Doesn't look like they got any value from the legal expenses: * Slide 12: Prime broker lawsuit dismissed in California court. Wonder how much they have wasted on o.co and o.info, which seem to add as much value as the legal expenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to financial results slides: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTI4ODgwfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1 * Slide 25: Outside Legal Expense: $16,069,000 * Slide 12: $8.5M reduction in corporate staff in January 2012. I guess this means they will save around $24M in 2012 compared to 2011? Doesn't look like they got any value from the legal expenses: * Slide 12: Prime broker lawsuit dismissed in California court. Wonder how much they have wasted on o.co and o.info, which seem to add as much value as the legal expenses. Yeah, those reductions will all have an effect from 1st Q 2012 on. I'm all for nailing these guys, but $16M in legal expenses for a $150M market cap company is an ill-advised gamble. The best thing for Overstock.com may actually be the dismissal of the case. Even if Fairfax's legal bill is four times that, that's a huge difference for a company with over $8B in equity! Prem can afford to fight this fight, whereas Overstock.com unfortunately can't. Sanjeev - I don't think you can compare Zappos with Overstock. Zappos has/had a far superior business model and a much more competent management. Its business model is based on very liberal free return policies: you can order 10 pairs of shoes and return them for free no questions asked. Margins are also much higher as they don't really compete on price. Bezos understood that years ago and tried to replicate it through endless.com as he could not implement those free return policies through the regular amazon website (you can't have different return policies across the site, you can't have the same liberal return policies for books). Then he got lucky a couple of years ago when the VCs backing zappos wanted/needed to get out quickly. That allowed him to get a key competitor at a decent price (I think he overpaid but it's arguable that it will pay off over time). Tony Hsieh is a far better CEO than Patrick Byrne. He has a clear strategy and is focused on execution. We can't really say that of Byrne.... Having said that, I agree that ostk is dirt cheap. All we need (I own a few shares) is someone at the top with at least some kind of discipline... Eric I think those two businesses are completely comparable. They be two of the most comparable online businesses you can find, even though their origins were a bit different. - Overstock.com ranks 550th as the most visited site globally, whereas Zappos.com ranks 601st. - Both hit about $1B in revenues at the same time. - Both launched around the same time back in 1999. - Both deal with online retail. - Both have excellent customer service. If you give them a run rate of about $4M in annual legal costs (so a savings of $12M from their 2011 number), and lop off the $8.5M in reductions they are making on the employee side in 2012, you have a buisness that would have about $20M more in pre-tax earnings. They have something like $160M in tax losses they can use. So they would have broken even...in a year when they were penalized by Google from mid-January to mid-April, and sent 8 of 13 customers to O.com instead of O.co during the Christmas season. Zappos was bought for over $900M by Amazon.com or about 1 times revenue. How can anyone say that Overstock.com is worth about 0.15 of revenues? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Alright, so I've avoided Overstock so far. However, I was looking on my mom's computer recently and noticed that she has been on there. Also, my sister in law bought some bedding things off there. So, that tells me that some people do use the site and it might have some life in it. I just really wished it had some longer term options. Interesting idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Alright, so I've avoided Overstock so far. However, I was looking on my mom's computer recently and noticed that she has been on there. Also, my sister in law bought some bedding things off there. So, that tells me that some people do use the site and it might have some life in it. This is the silliest comment I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Alright, so I've avoided Overstock so far. However, I was looking on my mom's computer recently and noticed that she has been on there. Also, my sister in law bought some bedding things off there. So, that tells me that some people do use the site and it might have some life in it. This is the silliest comment I've ever seen. You must not read my posts very often. ;) But seriously, my mom has recently started buying stuff off there. She is a really good predictor of new trends. If only I had listen to her feelings about COH 10 years ago! She also hates JCP right now with their coupon change. We'll see how that turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 A man who is coveting at borrowing $50-$100M from his partners at six percent or less in order to retire stock and increase their stakes magically overnight, is not a man ready to sell anything nor go anywhere. This is a Buffett trained man who will serve his owners well in the long term, unlike that narcissistic Prince of Persia bearing false gifts as well as false witness over at BH. Moreover, before you boys start idolizing Fairfax Gods with great market caps to wage the war against these MISCREANTS that Patrick, or at least the friends he aligned with, the ones who started the movement many years earlier; let's not forget that Big Prem was almost knocked down on the canvass, to never to stand up again! Rather than looking for his head, you boys should be thanking the man for all he has done to positively effect the entire financial markets, both foreign and domestic! Stop looking this GIFT HORSE in the MOUTH, and buy stock in size whenever you can down here! :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 So then I am thinking about responsibility inclusive of directorships. Patrick chose to take personal responsibility on the call for some of the blunders while hedging a tad bit. Fairfax's investment guru, and Watsa lieutenant, Sam Mitchell, has been sitting around the Overstock "director table" getting paid to do what, and for how long inclusive of these HORRIFIC GAAP results posted to owners yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Sam Antar arrives right on time. http://seekingalpha.com/article/411211-is-overstock-com-in-a-death-spiral Is Overstock.com In A Death Spiral? March 5, 2012 | about: OSTK Last Friday, Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK) reported a fourth quarter net loss of $3.4 million compared to net income of $14.9 million in the previous year’s fourth quarter. Its revenues declined 10% to $314.1 million compared to $348.9 million in the previous year's fourth quarter. Details of the fourth quarter financial results were so bad, that Overstock.com did not present a full income statement for that quarter in its press release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Hmm....Sam seems to be blocking opposing views from being added to his blog this morning. Tsk, Tsk, if God forbid there was a more positive comment being injected while this "DEATH MARCH" or is it a "DEATH SPIRAL" was being crafted to stimulate fear, uncertainty and doubt(FUD, and I don't mean Elmer!). This being said, here is what I was trying to write to my friend, Sam, the convicted felon, and if anyone here knows the answer--I'm sure somebody does--please feel free to weigh in. TIA I notice that you maintain an obsession with how much money Frances Chou is losing according to his investment decisions in this online retailer. Apparently, he along with another combined controlling shareholder, Fairfax Financial (FFH), an entity he had worked at earlier in his career, became the benefactors of 3.75 percent convertible senior notes having been paid out in cash by the end of the quarter. With somewhat dirt cheap coupons going all the way back to 2004 at issuance, I am sure this investor group weren't first in and holding those notes during the past eight years according to that interest rate. Have you researched what price below PAR they were paying and when along with your calculation surrounding how much money Chou lost, specifically? You might be surprised. By the way, I am sorry you struggled to listen to the replay, but if you finally did, I presume you didn't believe their confidence in FCF's moving ahead, especially tied to Q1, and the fact that they're prepared to buy back STOCK down at these levels? <We retired all of the remaining $34.6 million of the Senior Notes during the year ended December 31, 2011, for $34.6 million in cash, resulting in a loss of $54,000 on early extinguishment of debt, net of $77,000 of associated unamortized discount. Of the $34.6 million in Senior Notes retired during the year ended December 31, 2011, $10.1 million were held by Chou Associates Management, Inc. or an affiliate of Chou ("Chou") and $21.7 million were held by Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited or an affiliate of Fairfax ("Fairfax"). Chou and Fairfax are beneficial owners of more than 5% of our common stock.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Hmm....Sam seems to be blocking opposing views from being added to his blog this morning. Tsk, Tsk, if God forbid there was a more positive comment being injected while this "DEATH MARCH" or is it a "DEATH SPIRAL" was being crafted to stimulate fear, uncertainty and doubt(FUD, and I don't mean Elmer!). Dude, it looks like your opposing view is up there. What do you mean by blocking the opposing views? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I see it now, and patiently await Sam, I Am's response. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I see it now, and patiently await Sam, I Am's response. ;) Carl, you are like the bizarro world's Dr. Seuss. My kids could use a new story. Perhaps you have an update on Horton Hears a Who too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Kraven, I know it's inappropriate for your children, but might you enjoy DIRTY HARRY? ;D Oh yes, did I say "trigger finger"? I should have! http://seekingalpha.com/article/411211-is-overstock-com-in-a-death-spiral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Carl, there is a pattern that has developed with any stock you have interest in. Some words of advice from a great man: "Relax pal. First lesson in business is don't get emotional about stocks - it clouds your judgement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 What's emotional about buying stocks at less than fifteen cents on one dollar of sales, and positive fcf annually even after fighting the criminal thugs on Wall Street with legal expenses while it builds its business stronger during recent tough terrain; partially inflicted by the same thugs aforementioned? The emotion has been coming from Sam, I Am, a Convicted FELANNE, and I will not STAND down to the Man! Read that one to your kids, Kraven. It will be fun to see if that CABAL has the power to take it to FIVE; however, because that's what VALUE INVESTORS get woodies about. Refer to Warren E. Buffett for further "INSTRUCTION" while anticipating Mr. Market to "SERVE" you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 You got to admit, Carl in his unique and annoying way, was right about Antar. It didn't take Sam long to come out with something. Carl, I would take it down a notch...the volume is getting too high! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric50 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Sanjeev - I don't think you can compare Zappos with Overstock. Zappos has/had a far superior business model and a much more competent management. Its business model is based on very liberal free return policies: you can order 10 pairs of shoes and return them for free no questions asked. Margins are also much higher as they don't really compete on price. Bezos understood that years ago and tried to replicate it through endless.com as he could not implement those free return policies through the regular amazon website (you can't have different return policies across the site, you can't have the same liberal return policies for books). Then he got lucky a couple of years ago when the VCs backing zappos wanted/needed to get out quickly. That allowed him to get a key competitor at a decent price (I think he overpaid but it's arguable that it will pay off over time). Tony Hsieh is a far better CEO than Patrick Byrne. He has a clear strategy and is focused on execution. We can't really say that of Byrne.... Having said that, I agree that ostk is dirt cheap. All we need (I own a few shares) is someone at the top with at least some kind of discipline... Eric I think those two businesses are completely comparable. They be two of the most comparable online businesses you can find, even though their origins were a bit different. - Overstock.com ranks 550th as the most visited site globally, whereas Zappos.com ranks 601st. - Both hit about $1B in revenues at the same time. - Both launched around the same time back in 1999. - Both deal with online retail. - Both have excellent customer service. If you give them a run rate of about $4M in annual legal costs (so a savings of $12M from their 2011 number), and lop off the $8.5M in reductions they are making on the employee side in 2012, you have a buisness that would have about $20M more in pre-tax earnings. They have something like $160M in tax losses they can use. So they would have broken even...in a year when they were penalized by Google from mid-January to mid-April, and sent 8 of 13 customers to O.com instead of O.co during the Christmas season. Zappos was bought for over $900M by Amazon.com or about 1 times revenue. How can anyone say that Overstock.com is worth about 0.15 of revenues? Cheers! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm not sure you understood my point. Overstock competes primarily on price while Zappos is more differentiated with its free return policy. This is like comparing Target with Nordstrom; you just don't have the same kind of margin structure. Tony Hsieh revolutionized shoes selling on the internet with his free return policy and attracts different kind of customers than ostk. Also, I'm not sure the market cap to revenue ratio is that relevant in this case. The purchase of zappos by amzn happened almost 3 years ago. I suspect zappos revenue is growing much faster than ostk. It might now be above $1.5bn... Ostk on the other hand is not growing that fast anymore... But I think we both agree that it's insanely cheap at current price... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 O.K. Sanjeev. I will try to be a little more discreet in delivering my message even though that, I am always looking to enlist a FEW more GOOD MEN to stand tall against these miscreants. What is most perplexing about the nature of this attack, is the blatant effort by this "CONVICTED FELON" to literally attempt causing a "RUN on the bank!" On the other hand, he seems to be in bed with the SEC, so I presume his effort to create panics on companies hardly in jeopardy of IMPLOSION is STILL fair game in the U.S. Financial Markets. Certainly, the earlier note I provided from the 10K indicated a very long time has passed since the SEC has interviewed or inquired any further regarding Overstock.com employees in the matters which Sam brought to their attention. The fact that they remain silent, MIA, quite frankly, should be making American Blood boil. But what do I know, since I am just an annoying, however unique, SOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Wouldn't it be a hoot if that soon to be announced retail "Marketing Executive" ends up coming from Amazon? :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Looking at Francis Chou's holdings it's clear that he's very confident in Overstock's future. FYI, I'm including the Chou funds' investment strategy: The investment process followed in selecting equity investments for the Funds is a value-oriented approach to investing. This involves a detailed analysis of the strengths of individual companies, with much less emphasis on short-term market factors. Far greater importance is placed upon an assessment of a company's balance sheet, cash flow characteristics, profitability, industry position, special strengths, future growth potential and management ability The level of investments in the company’s securities is generally commensurate with the current price of the company’s securities in relation to its intrinsic value as determined by the above factors. Here's what I found when looking at the semi-annual report from 2011, correct me if I'm wrong: CHOU ASSOCIATES FUND - JUNE 30, 2011 Overstock was 7.8% of total cost, which is about the same size as BRK.A, AbitibiBowater Inc and BAC-WTA. Overstock.com Inc. Shares: 1,504,209 Cost: $ 31,016,174 Value: $ 22,077,843 PORTFOLIO TOTAL: Cost: $ 397,437,904 Value: $ 403,318,649 CHOU RRSP FUND - JUNE 30, 2011 Overstock was 12.5% of total cost, which 4 times more than BRK.A. Overstock.com Inc. Shares: 715,500 Cost: $ 14,906,146 Value: $ 10,501,66 PORTFOLIO TOTAL: Cost: $ 119,483,556 Value: $ 122,005,47 Other interesting findings: JUNE 30, 2008: The Chou Associates and RRSP funds had $ 788 800 (410 384+378,416) in Jan 2009 call options with a strike price between $ 40.00-45.00. I'm not sure what to make out of this, but I guess Chou thought OSTK could be at $40-45 in Jan, 2009. JUNE 30, 2010: the Chou Bond fund had 5% in "Overstock.com Inc., 3.75%". 3.75% seems pretty low… References: http://www.choufunds.com/index.html http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SemiAR11.pdf http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA10%20pdf.pdf http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA08.pdf By the way, Torstar Corporation is almost 23% of the RRSP fund's total costs. Torstar is something I have to look into: http://tmx.quotemedia.com/financials.php?qm_symbol=TS.B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 If the Chou funds' total cost for OSTK was $45 922 320 in June 30, 2011 then Francis has increased his holdings by 19.1%. According to Insider Monkey, Francis Chou has been buying Overstock for a total of $8 772 384.70 starting July 2011: http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/overstockcom+inc/1130713/purchases/ Who do you think is correct, Sam E. Antar and the media in general, or Francis Chou and Patrick Byrne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Speaking of Sam Antar and the media, this OVERSTOCK DEATH MARCH will continue unabated pointing to Byrne as a woman hater now, it seems with Goldman traders and Bethany McClean references for proof........ http://dagblog.com/business/rush-limbaugh-overstockcom-s-patrick-byrne-misogynists-getting-their-due-13235 The recent report came as a surprise to analysts. Via Reuters: Analysts, on average, had expected the company to earn 45 cents a share, on revenue of $377.6 million. One wonders who these analysts are. For those that have kept their eyes on Byrne – a donor to the Swiftboat attacks on John Kerry and a fierce supporter of a failed school voucher initiative in Utah – this collapse of his company has been easy to predict for some time now. And it appears no matter how hard he tries to libel & slander business journalists (he’s currently being sued for libel in Canada), his company will pay the ultimate price for his mismanagement. –WKW Let's review some history in order to capture the essence of how Death March's work including decapitations. It's a damn good thing that the Fighting Irishman, Dr. Byrne, is heading straight for St. Patrick's Day, with a Lucky Leprechaun nearby! BYRNE em, baby! http://www.bataansurvivor.com/content/the_bataan_death_march/1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 If the Chou funds' total cost for OSTK was $45 922 320 in June 30, 2011 then Francis has increased his holdings by 19.1%. According to Insider Monkey, Francis Chou has been buying Overstock for a total of $8 772 384.70 starting July 2011: http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/overstockcom+inc/1130713/purchases/ Who do you think is correct, Sam E. Antar and the media in general, or Francis Chou and Patrick Byrne? It isn't Sam, although I think Patrick is now being forced to realize that they have to keep a tighter rein on costs. You can't just expect blow-out growth in such a competitive market, unless you have a killer product. They don't! What they are is in the online retail business, which could be very nicely profitable and growing over the long-term. But like any business, it isn't going to be worth anything if it isn't making money. They needed to cut costs and they need to focus on the business, not the lawsuit. I think they may have come to that realization after the case was dismissed and they had this really shitty year! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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