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JPM - JP Morgan


shalab

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That is why he's richer than Mike Mayo (and me)...

 

haha!

That quote was awesome.

I hope Jamie doesn't retire for many years.

I don't think he gets nearly enough credit for his talent and leadership.

 

People love to hate. The man makes $9 million a year just through JPM dividends (assuming all beneficial holdings). That alone speaks volumes. Institutional "investors" got all worked up over his $7 million "discretionary" bonus last year. It's just nice to see an executive who has so much skin in the game.

 

The market may not get the rate rise it wants, but these banks will continue to earn billions. And if their capital allocation plans increase dividends and/or buybacks (which have been held back compared to the rest of the market), then some of these companies can add some serious value at these valuations. Now, if losses worsen, obviously capital will be needed as a buffer, but these banks are extremely well capitalized, including JP Morgan.

 

Anyone have the view that the TARP warrants are becoming interesting again?

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Interesting..

 

I learn from all our major competitors, whether they’re in or out of the U.S. Wells Fargo is very actively, very aggressively, and very successfully building its U.S. investment bank. Their big issue will be if they want to deal with the biggest companies, which are doing a lot of business overseas. How they do that is a big question. It’s almost impossible to build a global investment bank from scratch. If they want to do that, they probably will have to do an acquisition. - JD

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annual letter is out... IMO one of the best shareholder letters out there (one of buffett's favorite too)

 

Very comprehensive and must read if your long US banks.

 

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/investor-relations/annual-report-proxy.htm

 

+1! - I couldn't agree with chesko182 more.

 

I started reading the 2016 shareholder letter by Mr. Dimon yesterday at the beginning of the afternoon, continued reading the rest of the day, with some breaks to be social with the Lady of the House in the evening, after which I continued reading till after midnight. I think I have read about two thirds of the shareholder letter now.

 

Today, I find my self doing nothing, I'm just cheewing on what I read yesterday, my thoughts are just circling around it all the time.

 

The shareholder letter is just so comprehensive and so impressive.

 

What Mr. Dimon has delivered with this shareholder letter is actually a white paper for reasonable deregulation for banks. Our fellow board member Viking has posted quite actively about that matter here on CoBF lately, and about his expectations for the US big banks going forward, from a bank investing perspective.

 

To understand the strength of JPM where this bank is situated right now, my suggestion would be to study the schedule on the lower part of p. 20 of the shareholder letter and to read carefully the surrounding text comments made by Mr. Dimon.

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All of the big banks were at analyst conferences this past week. I have listened to a few and this one is my favourite - Marianne Lake, JPM CFO (Dec 5). She candidly discusses all the major items that will impact bank profitability in the coming year (obviously from JPM perspective:-)

 

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/investor-relations/event-calendar.htm#past

 

1.) fed rate hikes: Dec 17 and 3 or 4 next year, with odds favouring 4

2.) tax cuts: if passed in 2017 JPM will take large one time hit in Q4 of this year (did I hear $2 billion?); some discussion of who will get the benefit in 2018 (shareholders or customers - with the answer being both)

3.) regulatory relief: not much happened on this front in 2017 as key positions were not yet filled. However, she hinted that we should see some things happen in 2018 as key positions are now filled and the various options are being discussed; she suggested following presentations of the key government officials for clues as to what is likely coming.

4.) GDP growth: expecting another decent year in 2018 with chance growth could tick higher than expected.

 

Bottom line is it sounds like JPM is a little more bullish about 2018 than most right now.

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Excellent interview! Thank you for sharing, Viking, and thank you for a good boil down of the interview in your post.

 

After listening to the interview this evening, I agree with your post about the interview.

 

It's actually incredible how much Miss Lake is able to express in such short time! [Please, no comments about misogeny here - if you actually listen to the interview you may also just consider it a fact.] No doubt she is very well wandered in all the JPM lines af business.

 

The comments about the expected US tax reform are about the minus 5:18 mark. I was a bit surprised by those, after reading Viking's post. I understand those comments the way, that the tax reform is expected by JPM - due to competition - to be mainly for the benefit of the customers of the bank.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I own JPM too, approx. 3 percent position - for the long term. Not that bad with +10 percent within about a half year, and I expect much more to come, due to buybacks, and USD to go up relative to EUR within the medium term [No interest hikes in sight here in Europe, with interest hikes in sight in the US].

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Just listened to the Q4 conference call. My key takeaway was the question and answer around how much of the lower tax rate would drop to the bottom line. The questioner suggested $4 billion in savings; Dimon countered with $3.5 billion. JPM guided to a 17% effective tax rate in Q1 and 19% effective tax rate for year. They also expect tax reform to drive .2 to .3 higher GDP growth in 2018 and 2019. It will take some time to work it’s benefits.

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