winjitsu Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Do you think Scharf sees IB as a capital-light business (at least some parts of it are) that he can grow while under an asset cap? I don't think so. This is a strategic move in the 5-10 year timeframe, while the asset cap will probably go away before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 How much does Scharf hate his job that he'd rather live in NY and he'd rather go on sales calls than fix the mess at the bank? I've been wrong about WFC so far but this article is a real head-scratcher. Would WFC go up or down if Scharf were replaced in the next six months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I want to ask a honest question. What is so bad about IB, if it means deal making and trading services? I'm not talking about the Lehman Brothers IB where you buy up a ton of garbage RE assets and sit on them. I'm talking about classical deal making and trading services for large institutions. What's so bad about that other than Buffett likes to shit on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I want to ask a honest question. What is so bad about IB, if it means deal making and trading services? I'm not talking about the Lehman Brothers IB where you buy up a ton of garbage RE assets and sit on them. I'm talking about classical deal making and trading services for large institutions. What's so bad about that other than Buffett likes to shit on it? I think the main issue is that the returns aren't that good over time, unless you have big scale. Jefferies for a long time was barely able to do 10% RoTCE (IIRC anyway, it's been a while). Their returns are looking better these days though (finally). GS ROE hasn't been that great either. That being said, if you can get scale, it seems to work decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The main issue for me with investment banking is that you have huge information asymmetry with smart greedy (AF) people who historical base rates tell you are likely to be ethically challenged and these people can take yolo shots with your equity capital and if they blow up, that's your problem as the equity/bag holder. I get that they are regulated/scrutinized as heck right now, but I doubt that will be the case in 5 years. If I wanted JPM and the London whale I would buy JPM. More revenue per unit of risk, to me, was historically a feature of WFC's business model. Might be more lumpy earnings because of slightly lesser ability to obfuscate/bullshit, but I was fine with that. I'm going to wait and see what Scharf says but I did kind of fear this. Munger and Buffett's concerns about a "Wall street CEO" appear to have potentially come to pass. You're also probably less exposed to potential step change increase in the ROTCE function for retail banks with the application of technologies now proven out with venture funds. (totally my "speculation"...would never pay for that) They were released from AML consent order AH today. The most persuasive reason I saw for why it was up was options action which maybe they got wind of the consent order stuff but if I were forced to speculate, the stock has been strong AF since Buffett (apparently) finished selling, just a continuation of that really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I want to ask a honest question. What is so bad about IB, if it means deal making and trading services? I'm not talking about the Lehman Brothers IB where you buy up a ton of garbage RE assets and sit on them. I'm talking about classical deal making and trading services for large institutions. What's so bad about that other than Buffett likes to shit on it? Should probably break this down into several components in IBD like market making, merchant bank, ECM and DCM, M&A advisory etc. But a better way to re-frame this question is what are the structural components of IBD that make breaking in difficult? After all, how many serious new players have entered the market? Quant and HFT shops on the market-making side... that's about it. The top part of the league table has largely been fixed for the past 20 years with the exception of Lehman and Bear Sterns blowing out back in 2008. Ultimately it's a relationship and reputation heavy business with too many players. Also, Buffett likely has PTSD from Salomon Brothers :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I want to ask a honest question. What is so bad about IB, if it means deal making and trading services? I'm not talking about the Lehman Brothers IB where you buy up a ton of garbage RE assets and sit on them. I'm talking about classical deal making and trading services for large institutions. What's so bad about that other than Buffett likes to shit on it? Should probably break this down into several components in IBD like market making, merchant bank, ECM and DCM, M&A advisory etc. But a better way to re-frame this question is what are the structural components of IBD that make breaking in difficult? After all, how many serious new players have entered the market? Quant and HFT shops on the market-making side... that's about it. The top part of the league table has largely been fixed for the past 20 years with the exception of Lehman and Bear Sterns blowing out back in 2008. Ultimately it's a relationship and reputation heavy business with too many players. Also, Buffett likely has PTSD from Salomon Brothers :'( A competitor could come in and undercut the 6% IPO fee (is it still 6%? is it 6% outside the US?), but that competitor wouldn't be part of the syndicate on other deals, which is how the cartel is maintained. That's my guess. But the cartel is run for the benefit of employees, who have more leverage than shareholders. By the way, I don't think scale really works in IBD. GS has scale but has to compete with the big balance sheets of C and JPM. The sweet spot appears to be something like Piper Sandler, which trades at ~3x book. David Einhorn has an essay that makes the case that IBD is a good industry ruined by horrible management, along the lines of what CorpRaider suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Like I would want to be a partner in the old Goldman or Saloman or Lazard zero doubt, but as a passive equity hodler? Nah man. (Of course this take is just derived from Buffett and Munger). Obviously Buffett likes merchant banking and private equity as a shot caller. By the way, damn sure glad I didn't get mad and sell yesterday. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Wells Fargo close to deal with buyout firms for asset management business https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wells-fargo-assetmanagement/exclusive-wells-fargo-close-to-deal-with-buyout-firms-for-asset-management-business-sources-idUSKBN29J2AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Got lucky and sold my Jan22/21 $27.50 for a decent but not spectacular profit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Got lucky and sold my Jan22/21 $27.50 for a decent but not spectacular profit today. Should have held on to Jan 22 calls. More room to go north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really only had till tomorrow to dispose so, how good iwill results be in am? hmmm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Really only had till tomorrow to dispose so, how good iwill results be in am? hmmm! Sorry read it wrong. I thought Jan 2022... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 No problem Junto. I am all out of WFC vanilla shares now as well. Only have their perpetual Preferred left. Still have JPM and BAC common equity and perpetual Preferred left tho. Stay safe this winter folks as it's looking tough going Pandemic wise now ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 True or False? "If Wells Fargo’s asset-growth ban is lifted, Pozsar says the big four U.S. banks can absorb another $900 billion of reserves — but only $500 billion if it isn’t." www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20210114273/why-secretary-yellen-may-push-to-lift-the-wells-fargo-ban-put-in-place-by-chair-yellen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 True or False? As I was saying last August....they have to remove the cap, its killing Wells and creating unintended consequences. It even forced the US Treasury to raise the levels in its own account at the Fed to remove the growing reserve balances in the US commercial banking system. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/wfc-wells-fargo/msg428331/#msg428331 wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 True or False? "If Wells Fargo’s asset-growth ban is lifted, Pozsar says the big four U.S. banks can absorb another $900 billion of reserves — but only $500 billion if it isn’t." www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20210114273/why-secretary-yellen-may-push-to-lift-the-wells-fargo-ban-put-in-place-by-chair-yellen wabuffo is the gold standard on these topics and others (when i venture a different opinion on a sub-topic, the working hypothesis is that i'm wrong). Still, for fun, i've followed this topic for a while (perspective: it sometimes feels very weird) and here are a few additional aspects. The reserves-management aspect is multi-dimensional and includes, on top of the hoped-for transmission mechanism to the real economy, a liquidity function (Fed to markets and Treasury to constituents). In 2010, somebody had noticed that excess reserves had gone down because of balance sheet movements at the Fed (Treasury Account) and as a result of new liquidity operations: https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-trends/economic-trends-archives/2010-economic-trends/et-20100113-treasury-deposits-and-excess-bank-reserves.aspx#:~:text=When%20the%20treasury%20issues%20debt,reserves%20in%20the%20banking%20system. An interesting aspect is that not many people voiced the possibility of such an expansion for the Fed balance sheet after 2010 (see total assets and selected liabilities): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm i have to review WFC with the latest results but JPM (who has no cap of its own) recently reported that they are flush with cash and more (excess 450B vs what regulators expect and the loan to deposit ratio has been going down). The outcome for banks may not be related to what the Treasury or the Fed does or does not do. From the WSJ: "Across Citigroup, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, which all reported earnings Friday, cash assets at year-end represented about 15% of their total assets, well up from less than 10% a year before." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 JPM (who has no cap of its own) recently reported that they are flush with cash and more (excess 450B vs what regulators expect and the loan to deposit ratio has been going down). .... The outcome for banks may not be related to what the Treasury or the Fed does or does not do. We don't have the Q4 Call Reports yet - but as of Q3, JPM was sitting on $300B of reserves. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961721000073/a4q20_earningsxpresentat.htm Cop a squint at pp 15-17 of JPM's recent earnings release presentation (especially pg 17). AFAIK, JPM did not have a similar section in their Q2 or Q3 2020 earnings presentations. I don't think Dimon is happy with the Fed's balance expansion and its effects on JPM's balance sheet. "Reduce or turn away deposits!" That's a shot across the bow at the Fed and US Treasury. And that's from a bank that doesn't have a hard asset cap like WFC does. I can only imagine the tough conversations happening right now in WFC's executive mgmt team zoom calls. WFC CFO: "Dang - another $600 per person stimulus program was just announced by the US Treasury. More bank deposits/reserves are flooding in. What do we sell now, Scharf?" wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickenumbers Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Wabuffo, I see it like you see it. Based on everything that I know and what I have heard on the earnings calls, the Asset Cap is significantly hamstring WFC from competing and maybe operating effectively, much less optimally. Due to lowing interest rates, increased savings rates and refinances, their present P&L is deteriorating. I agree and most of us do, that WFC had to get their house in order. The US gov put them in the penalty box and WFC botched lots of time in order to comply and right the ship. "If you mess with the bull, at some point you are going to get the HORNS.!" And, WFC got grabbed by the hair by the US Government and they deserve it. After that, new management [Great transparent management now], lots and lots of remediation..... I am not making their case for them, but if I was a regulator, I would have to start to ask.... "Have we punished enough?? Is there some way that we can begin to lessen the punishment? Are our continued actions as regulators eroding at what is left of a respected and important US bank and institution? All agree that WFC is working with the regulators." I think they should significantly reduce the restrictions on WFC, and continue to monitor moving forward [probation/work release.] I also wonder if WFC is just caught in slow government bureaucracy and lame duck politics. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 getting out of the dog house soon? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/wells-fargo-shares-jump-after-fed-reportedly-approves-banks-overhaul-plan.html Wells Fargo shares jump after Fed reportedly approves bank’s overhaul plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 From the sound of things, this could take years!!! :'( What I do not understand is that it has taken WFC 3 years to put together a plan to address their deficiencies. Step 1: Plan Approval - Complete Step 2: Implementation of plan - We do not have a target on this Step 3: 3rd party to approve controls Step 4: Fed to vote on removing cap getting out of the dog house soon? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/wells-fargo-shares-jump-after-fed-reportedly-approves-banks-overhaul-plan.html Wells Fargo shares jump after Fed reportedly approves bank’s overhaul plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Count me surprised if it's still in effect on 01/01/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah, it's going to move ahead faster now I believe. The Fed has basically told them "We're gonna let you out of the doghouse, just do what you say" - and now they gotta go do it. It's not complex. I'm sure there are a million man hours left but with enough staff, you can get a lot done, and the shareholders will not complain about the cost. I would be surprised if it took much more than another year. There was probably a long round of negotiation that led up to it, to figure out what the Fed really wanted. Wells is lucky it was a huge bank - a small, less important one may have gotten liquidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Wells Fargo to Merge Wealth Management Sales Regions The shifts, which will occur over several months, follow a reorganization of Wells Fargo Advisors less than two years ago that eliminated eight regions and senior field positions. They come as the wealth unit struggles to replace more than 2,000 advisors net who have left since Wells acknowledged in 2016 that bankers had created fake banking and credit card accounts to meet sales quotas. https://advisorhub.com/wells-fargo-to-merge-wealth-management-sales-regions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Spreads continuing to get more attractive. Less burning money (securities yields above deposit costs) and more loan demand is starting to come forward. Golden age of banking could be coming. Lots of low cost deposits and a raging economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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