Guest oakwood42 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 And a follow up to the post above: http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.ca/2013/01/mr-market-versus-mr-buffett.html Forgive me for this question however what does this author mean when he says "BPS growth?" I did couple internet searches but wasn't able to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 book value per share growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest oakwood42 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 book value per share growth Thank you ValueMaven - I was familiar with BVPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Off topic : oakwood, Here, a belated welcome to you here on CoBF & Merry Christmas. -Please don't be a stranger. - - - o 0 o - - - -Now back to WFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest oakwood42 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Off topic : oakwood, Here, a belated welcome to you here on CoBF & Merry Christmas. -Please don't be a stranger. - - - o 0 o - - - -Now back to WFC. Thank you John - I am continuing to work my way through the WFC thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Why does WFC own rail cars? www.wellsfargo.com/com/financing/equipment-financing/rail/ Maybe it’s a good thing. They’ve got so much cash that they have to use trains to move it around? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 check out this presentation https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/presentations/2016/wholesale-banking-presentation.pdf (scroll down to page 29, to see the GE Capital + Railcar deal) The wsj article misses a big point: To WFC, the value of the railcar leasing division is not just the financing+lease income, it's the other services that the customers use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 check out this presentation https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/presentations/2016/wholesale-banking-presentation.pdf (scroll down to page 29, to see the GE Capital + Railcar deal) The wsj article misses a big point: To WFC, the value of the railcar leasing division is not just the financing+lease income, it's the other services that the customers use. Nice link, thanks. So Marmon actually owns the rail cars? (see page 34 footnote 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 ^The last time I checked, 2/3 of railcars were leased, not owned. This could be seen as a non-traditional venture with a rogue GE label but if you believe in the future of prosperity with rails in it, the operating segment may just be a variation for the historical path-dependent outcome related to client satisfaction (and accounting reporting needs) where simple lending of money with railcars as collateral became an off-balance sheet decision. BTW and FWIW, the accounting has changed recently for the reporting subtility of who owns what vs capital/operating reporting decisions with the "right-of-use" liability terminology introduced in 2019. I agree with Rasputin here and I think that WFC's job is to keep the client happy and to continue to offer their services doing so, wherever the accounting terminology takes them as the substance of the intermediation transactions doesn't really change. WFC's history and, in fact, its origin, is strongly tied to where people moved and how merchandise (including money or its gold equivalent) was handled. The next time you go to LA, take 10 minutes to visit their small museum which helps to remember how WFC really connected with people and helped people connect with each other before the advance of the digital age, with the advent of the ATM as a major accomplishment. A synonym for stagecoach is diligence. :) https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/wells-and-fargo-start-shipping-and-banking-company https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/wells-fargo-history-museum-los-angeles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 ^The last time I checked, 2/3 of railcars were leased, not owned. This could be seen as a non-traditional venture with a rogue GE label but if you believe in the future of prosperity with rails in it, the operating segment may just be a variation for the historical path-dependent outcome related to client satisfaction (and accounting reporting needs) where simple lending of money with railcars as collateral became an off-balance sheet decision. BTW and FWIW, the accounting has changed recently for the reporting subtility of who owns what vs capital/operating reporting decisions with the "right-of-use" liability terminology introduced in 2019. I agree with Rasputin here and I think that WFC's job is to keep the client happy and to continue to offer their services doing so, wherever the accounting terminology takes them as the substance of the intermediation transactions doesn't really change. WFC's history and, in fact, its origin, is strongly tied to where people moved and how merchandise (including money or its gold equivalent) was handled. The next time you go to LA, take 10 minutes to visit their small museum which helps to remember how WFC really connected with people and helped people connect with each other before the advance of the digital age, with the advent of the ATM as a major accomplishment. A synonym for stagecoach is diligence. :) https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/wells-and-fargo-start-shipping-and-banking-company https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/wells-fargo-history-museum-los-angeles Is the asset cap more about this end of the business than the phony account scandal? www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/bupd-tis_qk8gzldv4vvgq2 --- It seems like WFC not being able to do any big deals could maybe send something to Omaha, which would speak to the need for BRK to stay below the 10% ownership limit, or would it be better for WEB to just buy the whole thing & deal with the requirements? Business Wire seems like a fertile hunting ground for BRK businesses too? --- I just bought Nate's banking book as I should've a long time ago. www.amazon.com/Bank-Investors-Handbook-Nathan-Tobik/dp/0692990208The_Long_Journey_to_Adequate_for_Wells_Fargo.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 ^The last time I checked, 2/3 of railcars were leased, not owned. This could be seen as a non-traditional venture with a rogue GE label but if you believe in the future of prosperity with rails in it, the operating segment may just be a variation for the historical path-dependent outcome related to client satisfaction (and accounting reporting needs) where simple lending of money with railcars as collateral became an off-balance sheet decision. BTW and FWIW, the accounting has changed recently for the reporting subtility of who owns what vs capital/operating reporting decisions with the "right-of-use" liability terminology introduced in 2019. I agree with Rasputin here and I think that WFC's job is to keep the client happy and to continue to offer their services doing so, wherever the accounting terminology takes them as the substance of the intermediation transactions doesn't really change. WFC's history and, in fact, its origin, is strongly tied to where people moved and how merchandise (including money or its gold equivalent) was handled. The next time you go to LA, take 10 minutes to visit their small museum which helps to remember how WFC really connected with people and helped people connect with each other before the advance of the digital age, with the advent of the ATM as a major accomplishment. A synonym for stagecoach is diligence. :) https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/wells-and-fargo-start-shipping-and-banking-company https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/wells-fargo-history-museum-los-angeles Is the asset cap more about this end of the business than the phony account scandal? www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/bupd-tis_qk8gzldv4vvgq2 --- It seems like WFC not being able to do any big deals could maybe send something to Omaha, which would speak to the need for BRK to stay below the 10% ownership limit, or would it be better for WEB to just buy the whole thing & deal with the requirements? Business Wire seems like a fertile hunting ground for BRK businesses too? --- I just bought Nate's banking book as I should've a long time ago. www.amazon.com/Bank-Investors-Handbook-Nathan-Tobik/dp/0692990208 Just ordered the book too. Thanks :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-27/wells-fargo-s-poker-faced-scharf-sows-angst-while-mulling-change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-to-be-a-technology-company-wells-fargo-struggles-with-aging-systems-11578738600 WFC would've had a pass from investors if they had depressed earnings to invest in better controls 2 years ago. Equity:Assets ratio fell below 10% for the first time since 2009. I think investors are underestimating how devastating the asset cap is to a bank. Thankfully inflation isn't higher, but it seems like WFC is making a lots of little bad decisions to pretend they are a normal bank at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skanjete Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-to-be-a-technology-company-wells-fargo-struggles-with-aging-systems-11578738600 WFC would've had a pass from investors if they had depressed earnings to invest in better controls 2 years ago. Equity:Assets ratio fell below 10% for the first time since 2009. I think investors are underestimating how devastating the asset cap is to a bank. Thankfully inflation isn't higher, but it seems like WFC is making a lots of little bad decisions to pretend they are a normal bank at the moment. If you consider the data per share, things don't look that bad. If they ever succeed in normalising the cost base, the culture and eventually the perception, the revaluation will be very considerable. At that time, this episode will seem a huge buying opportunity in retrospect. In this scenario, the buyback programme will appear to have been enormously beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-to-be-a-technology-company-wells-fargo-struggles-with-aging-systems-11578738600 WFC would've had a pass from investors if they had depressed earnings to invest in better controls 2 years ago. Equity:Assets ratio fell below 10% for the first time since 2009. I think investors are underestimating how devastating the asset cap is to a bank. Thankfully inflation isn't higher, but it seems like WFC is making a lots of little bad decisions to pretend they are a normal bank at the moment. What matters is the deposits are still growing. Charles is the best person for improving their tech systems. I can see on LinkedIn, WFC is trying hire more quants and IT people. It's pretty clear what need to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwtorock Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-to-be-a-technology-company-wells-fargo-struggles-with-aging-systems-11578738600 WFC would've had a pass from investors if they had depressed earnings to invest in better controls 2 years ago. Equity:Assets ratio fell below 10% for the first time since 2009. I think investors are underestimating how devastating the asset cap is to a bank. Thankfully inflation isn't higher, but it seems like WFC is making a lots of little bad decisions to pretend they are a normal bank at the moment. What matters is the deposits are still growing. Charles is the best person for improving their tech systems. I can see on LinkedIn, WFC is trying hire more quants and IT people. It's pretty clear what need to be done. Maybe it is just me, but the more i look at that 1.5b accrual, the more it looks like a kitchen sink quarter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I agree with the previous two posters. They are revamping their internal systems and controls. Poaching folks from other (better) banks to institute industry standard best practices throughout the org. Can be lucrative if you are in the right place at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-to-be-a-technology-company-wells-fargo-struggles-with-aging-systems-11578738600 WFC would've had a pass from investors if they had depressed earnings to invest in better controls 2 years ago. Equity:Assets ratio fell below 10% for the first time since 2009. I think investors are underestimating how devastating the asset cap is to a bank. Thankfully inflation isn't higher, but it seems like WFC is making a lots of little bad decisions to pretend they are a normal bank at the moment. If you consider the data per share, things don't look that bad. If they ever succeed in normalising the cost base, the culture and eventually the perception, the revaluation will be very considerable. At that time, this episode will seem a huge buying opportunity in retrospect. In this scenario, the buyback programme will appear to have been enormously beneficial. They also missed on revenues, not just expenses and litigation reserves. They have got years of work ahead of them, before things normalize while the competition steps on the gas. The stock is not as cheap as it looks, Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 With $1.3 trillion+ in deposits (up like 2% or $30 bills last q...with no CEO...while the sound and fury rages) on which they are paying/spending .62% (with costs that can probably come out of that over time), there's a decent chance it works out. The $1.5 bil litigation accrual is run rate from the prior Q...I think...they also released some reserves, so i don't know about the kitchen sink quarter, but there's not a lot of incentive to be overly positive in CEOs first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluejoseph Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The $1.5 bil litigation accrual is run rate from the prior Q...I think... During the quarter, Wells Fargo set aside $1.5 billion for litigation expenses, which came on top of another $1.6 billion litigation accrual in the previous three-month span. The company said that the fourth-quarter accrual was partly related to its retail sales practices, as was the entire third-quarter accrual. - American Banker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 After listening to the CEO (with his prepared remarks) on the conference call it sounds like WFC is still in the early innings of its turn around. He is still in the process of bringing in new blood. He is not yet finished his evaluation of what needs to be done, what it will cost and how long it will take. And WFC appears to still have lots of work to be done to get the regulators off their back. I wonder how long this ‘state’ can go on... it has to be impacting their total business. More importantly, WFC’s 2 main competitors (JPM and BAC) are aggressively moving on to the next round of tech investments (the benefits we will only see in 2 or 3 years). WFC must be falling further and further behind on their strategy and investment spend. As much as i want to take advantage of the idea of the turn around in WFC my brain tells me the turn around might be another year away. But that is what i thought a year ago, and the year before that. And after listening to the CEO it sounds like they might have to do a complete reset and start over. Crazy. WFC’s continuing problems has to be good news for BAC and JPM (in addition to the continuing issues with the big European banks.) The silver lining of having such a poorly performing stock is WFC has excess capital and has been able to buy up an enormous number of shares and this will likely continue in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 After listening to the CEO (with his prepared remarks) on the conference call it sounds like WFC is still in the early innings of its turn around. He is still in the process of bringing in new blood. He is not yet finished his evaluation of what needs to be done, what it will cost and how long it will take. And WFC appears to still have lots of work to be done to get the regulators off their back. I wonder how long this ‘state’ can go on... it has to be impacting their total business. More importantly, WFC’s 2 main competitors (JPM and BAC) are aggressively moving on to the next round of tech investments (the benefits we will only see in 2 or 3 years). WFC must be falling further and further behind on their strategy and investment spend. As much as i want to take advantage of the idea of the turn around in WFC my brain tells me the turn around might be another year away. But that is what i thought a year ago, and the year before that. And after listening to the CEO it sounds like they might have to do a complete reset and start over. Crazy. WFC’s continuing problems has to be good news for BAC and JPM (in addition to the continuing issues with the big European banks.) The silver lining of having such a poorly performing stock is WFC has excess capital and has been able to buy up an enormous number of shares and this will likely continue in 2020. My guess is that they will need 2 years to work this out. FWIW, a new CEO is not incentivized to downplay the problem, quite the opposite. I also don’t think that they can reduce their capital levels much more, they will probably keep a buffer to their target capital rate, so the pace of buybacks will slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 The $1.5 bil litigation accrual is run rate from the prior Q...I think... During the quarter, Wells Fargo set aside $1.5 billion for litigation expenses, which came on top of another $1.6 billion litigation accrual in the previous three-month span. The company said that the fourth-quarter accrual was partly related to its retail sales practices, as was the entire third-quarter accrual. - American Banker Would part of the litigation expense occur as a result of these judgements? www.americanbanker.com/news/wells-fargo-loses-another-patent-lawsuit-to-usaa www.digitaltransactions.net/after-beating-wells-fargo-twice-in-court-usaa-seeks-dismissal-of-miteks-mobile-deposit-lawsuit/ --- Why would USAA be taking WFC to court for using technology provided by Mitek? www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000045/mitk-20191101.htm www.nafcu.org/compliance-blog/update-usaa-rdc-litigation --- Is this even anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Looks like Berkshire is selling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Looks like Berkshire is selling out Berkshire still needs to stay under 10% ownership, right? It has been selling its position down over time to stay well under that ownership %. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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