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WFC - Wells Fargo


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From what I remember at least two of the stocks were BAC and WFC...USB and the bond were maybe in there, but I'm certain BAC and WFC were two of the securities.  It's been 11 years!  Cheers!

 

Your memory is getting a bit scrambled.  Yes BAC was bought - but in 2011, and not 2009. (right around the time that Buffett was doing his BAC preferred deal at BRK).

 

Here's the list of stocks purchased and when. (DJCO has a 9/30 y-e, so I will use MQ, JQ, SQ, DQ instead of Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)

 

2009  MQ    -  WFC, USB

2011  MQ/JQ - PKX, 1211.HK

2011  DQ      - BAC

2012  JQ/SQ - 1211.HK

2014  DQ      - 005389.KS  (also sells most of PKX)

2015  DQ      - 1211.HK

2016  DQ      - 1211.HK

 

Hope this helps jog your memory.

 

wabuffo

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From what I remember at least two of the stocks were BAC and WFC...USB and the bond were maybe in there, but I'm certain BAC and WFC were two of the securities.  It's been 11 years!  Cheers!

 

Your memory is getting a bit scrambled.  Yes BAC was bought - but in 2011, and not 2009. (right around the time that Buffett was doing his BAC preferred deal at BRK).

 

Here's the list of stocks purchased and when. (DJCO has a 9/30 y-e, so I will use MQ, JQ, SQ, DQ instead of Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)

 

2009  MQ    -  WFC, USB

2011  MQ/JQ - PKX, 1211.HK

2011  DQ      - BAC

2012  JQ/SQ - 1211.HK

2014  DQ      - 005389.KS  (also sells most of PKX)

2015  DQ      - 1211.HK

2016  DQ      - 1211.HK

 

Hope this helps jog your memory.

 

wabuffo

 

Thanks!  Yes, that helps.  Cheers!

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Warren Buffett may have slashed his Wells Fargo stake because the bank ignored his advice and hired a Wall Street CEO

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-cut-wells-fargo-ignored-ceo-advice-2020-10-1029694267

 

Thanks for posting. WB has often said that, when investing in the banks, management is the most important thing. However I do find it interesting that he would liquidate such a historical stake based not on the capacity of Scharf, but rather his interpretation of how Congress would react to Scharf's appointment.

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Warren Buffett may have slashed his Wells Fargo stake because the bank ignored his advice and hired a Wall Street CEO

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-cut-wells-fargo-ignored-ceo-advice-2020-10-1029694267

 

Thanks for posting. WB has often said that, when investing in the banks, management is the most important thing. However I do find it interesting that he would liquidate such a historical stake based not on the capacity of Scharf, but rather his interpretation of how Congress would react to Scharf's appointment.

I think it probably has most to do with the fact that he was able to increase his stake in BAC and image issues related to WFC.

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Thanks for posting. WB has often said that, when investing in the banks, management is the most important thing. However I do find it interesting that he would liquidate such a historical stake based not on the capacity of Scharf, but rather his interpretation of how Congress would react to Scharf's appointment.

 

 

WB and Charlie are pretty vocal against the fact that he's in NYC when the whole firm is in SF / Charlotte as well. Personally, I don't like that either. Also there are some news (more like tabloid) reports of Scharf not visiting WB, whereas all the previous CEOs have. To me seems like an ego issue on both ends: Scharf, your high flying CEO that can have his way with the board, and WB needing a certain amount of fealty since he's the largest shareholder (but not taking board representation...)

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My gut feel is Buffett didn't make the decision just based on Scharf.  We have discussed asset cap a lot.  We also all know how reputation and asset cap have affected deposit growth compared to BAC.  I wanted to also re-raise the discussion of loan quality for folks to consider.

 

I alluded to this a few months ago when I was comparing balance sheets of the various banks, including quality of loans, e.g. %loans in CRE, FICO score distribution, etc.  At the time, I was surprised to find that WFC's loan quality was not as high as I had thought earlier.  Compared to BAC, WFC had too high of a percentage in CRE loans, and had lower FICO distribution.  Later, Fed Stress test confirmed the same, but still put WFC as better off than a lot of other banks in terms of losses expected.

 

In the most recent quarterly earnings deck, WFC has slides on CRE loans ($144 Billion) and C&I loans ($338 Billion). 

 

Even though the amounts were always in the annual report, wondering if more people in the market are noticing them now. 

 

WFC's CET1 capital is currently $23.1 Billion over the minimum.  So, beyond the reserves, they have some loss taking capacity but of course, can't absorb all loss possibilities.  I think the crux is here is being able to predict with a high probability what the actual maximum losses will be, especially with office ($37 Billion), Retail ($14 Billion), Shopping Centers ($11 Billion), Construction ($22-$24 Billion), etc.  I'm thinking hospitality ($12 Billion) has risk of being non-performing for a while, but underlying asset values should eventually recover.  Then, there are oil &gas loans ($11 Billion), but those are probably known quantity by this point.

 

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My gut feel is Buffett didn't make the decision just based on Scharf.  We have discussed asset cap a lot.  We also all know how reputation and asset cap have affected deposit growth compared to BAC.  I wanted to also re-raise the discussion of loan quality for folks to consider.

 

I alluded to this a few months ago when I was comparing balance sheets of the various banks, including quality of loans, e.g. %loans in CRE, FICO score distribution, etc.  At the time, I was surprised to find that WFC's loan quality was not as high as I had thought earlier.  Compared to BAC, WFC had too high of a percentage in CRE loans, and had lower FICO distribution.  Later, Fed Stress test confirmed the same, but still put WFC as better off than a lot of other banks in terms of losses expected.

 

In the most recent quarterly earnings deck, WFC has slides on CRE loans ($144 Billion) and C&I loans ($338 Billion). 

 

Even though the amounts were always in the annual report, wondering if more people in the market are noticing them now. 

 

WFC's CET1 capital is currently $23.1 Billion over the minimum.  So, beyond the reserves, they have some loss taking capacity but of course, can't absorb all loss possibilities.  I think the crux is here is being able to predict with a high probability what the actual maximum losses will be, especially with office ($37 Billion), Retail ($14 Billion), Shopping Centers ($11 Billion), Construction ($22-$24 Billion), etc.  I'm thinking hospitality ($12 Billion) has risk of being non-performing for a while, but underlying asset values should eventually recover.  Then, there are oil &gas loans ($11 Billion), but those are probably known quantity by this point.

 

I think this is spot on.  I think they weighed the investment versus BAC and just prefer that business for the very long-term.  It doesn't mean that WFC won't work out for holders today, but it doesn't fit WEB's framework.  He's consistently avoided turnarounds and that is exactly what WFC is right now.

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I think WEB can buy 25% of BAC so he sold his other financials in order to increase BAC to 25%. That's it. WFC will be fine but he was limited in what he could buy.

 

I was thinking that too, and looking out for that. 

 

Alas, that theory didn't get validated because BRK hasn't been buying even after BAC price dropped during multiple weeks below what BRK was paying on its most recent purchases.

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Wells Fargo Is Said to Discuss Sale of Its Asset-Management Arm

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-23/wells-fargo-exploring-sale-of-asset-management-arm-reuters-says?srnd=premium

 

Wells Fargo & Co. is exploring the sale of its asset-management unit, a business that could fetch more than $3 billion, according to a person briefed on the matter

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Wells Fargo Exploring $1 Billion-Plus Corporate-Trust Sale

 

CEO Scharf has promised a leaner firm after years of scandals

 

Wells Fargo & Co. is exploring a sale of its corporate-trust unit that could fetch more than $1 billion and is considering whether to find a buyer for its student-loan portfolio, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-26/wells-fargo-is-said-to-mull-1-billion-plus-corporate-trust-sale?srnd=premium

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  • 2 weeks later...

Buffett's blessing: really dumped most of remaining shares in Q3 comparing Q2 to Q3 13HR filings. Probably out now.

 

That was a lot of downward pressure which is now gone. It could now rally just like the airlines did after he got out. LOL!

 

This is one cheap money-center bank. With Biden having chosen Yellen for Treasury Secretary instead of crazy Liz Warren, I could see this going into a major relief rally. Plus it is definitely a "vaccine" stock.

 

Cardboard

 

 

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Anyone have any thoughts on how Yellen might benefit or hinder the asset cap situation? She seems quite reasonable and bipartisan. I could see her spending some time on this to pressure the Fed into removing the cap.

Sure. But on the other hand I wouldn't call Powell a dick either. There's also the fact that it was Yellen that imposed the cap on Wells as pretty much the last thing she did at the Fed. So I don't know.

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