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TSCO.L - Tesco Plc


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Buffett  told CNBC on Thursday:

 

I made a mistake on Tesco. That was a huge mistake by me.

 

I wish there had been a bit more follow-up. Okay, it was a mistake to buy at that price, but what about now?  Is this a good company that has stumbled or is this a mistake period?  It would have been interesting to hear his thoughts......

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Zorro, I can't help to jump in here and repeat what I said in previous posts.  The industry is in a state of massive change.  Hard discounters with tremendous resources are pulling the rug out from beneath an industry that was already viciously competitive.  At the same time, the industry is moving from a model of out of town superstores to consumers visiting smaller stores much more frequently.  At the same time, people are moving online.  Both smaller and online are far less profitable.  And why go to Tesco when you can go to Aldi and Lidl and get honest, cheap prices - rather than ridiculous "special offers" that aren't special.

 

For a very long time, Tesco have been raising cash by doing sale and leasebacks with their pension plan.  Given that their stores may have considerable deteriorations in value, the pension plan may now have a sizeable unrealised deficit.  BTW, Tesco is one of the last companies to do final salary pensions (I believe).

 

Management is completely unproven and they are in the middle of a massive accounting scandal.

 

The ONLY reason to invest in this company is "it's cheap", but bear in mind you are buying a commodity company, with collapsing margins and an unproven management.  Cheap for a reason, right?

 

This is not a quality company, it's not a discount to book value play, it's not a reversion play, it's not a dividend play.  It's not even that cheap on a forward P/E basis.

 

I'll tell anyone on this board what I said about 30% ago.  Please don't do it.

 

 

 

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"And why go to Tesco when you can go to Aldi and Lidl and get honest, cheap prices - rather than ridiculous "special offers" that aren't special."

 

Because Aldi and Lidl have only a limited supply of goods and people like to have more choices of brand names,

Aldi and Lidl don´t offer.

Food and beverage retailing is probably the biggest business of the world, so there can be a lot of players in the market.

Buffett said of Conoco Phillips it was a mistake too and you could have very good returns.

I don´t buy my food and drinks at the Internet.

 

Of course with unproven management and the accounting fraud it is not risk free, but the price you pay is terrible important and

the price is great.

 

We will see how this ends...  ;)

 

 

 

 

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Buffett  told CNBC on Thursday:

 

I made a mistake on Tesco. That was a huge mistake by me.

 

I wish there had been a bit more follow-up. Okay, it was a mistake to buy at that price, but what about now?  Is this a good company that has stumbled or is this a mistake period?  It would have been interesting to hear his thoughts......

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Zorro, I can't help to jump in here and repeat what I said in previous posts.  The industry is in a state of massive change.  Hard discounters with tremendous resources are pulling the rug out from beneath an industry that was already viciously competitive.  At the same time, the industry is moving from a model of out of town superstores to consumers visiting smaller stores much more frequently.  At the same time, people are moving online.  Both smaller and online are far less profitable.  And why go to Tesco when you can go to Aldi and Lidl and get honest, cheap prices - rather than ridiculous "special offers" that aren't special.

 

For a very long time, Tesco have been raising cash by doing sale and leasebacks with their pension plan.  Given that their stores may have considerable deteriorations in value, the pension plan may now have a sizeable unrealised deficit.  BTW, Tesco is one of the last companies to do final salary pensions (I believe).

 

Management is completely unproven and they are in the middle of a massive accounting scandal.

 

The ONLY reason to invest in this company is "it's cheap", but bear in mind you are buying a commodity company, with collapsing margins and an unproven management.  Cheap for a reason, right?

 

This is not a quality company, it's not a discount to book value play, it's not a reversion play, it's not a dividend play.  It's not even that cheap on a forward P/E basis.

 

I'll tell anyone on this board what I said about 30% ago.  Please don't do it.

 

ukvalueinvestment,

 

You make a compelling case that this is a broken company.  I was mainly curious about WEB's comments. I wish that there would be more in-depth discussion of his investment process rather than the rather than the continuous, superficial "give us a stock tip" attitude that most interviews take with him. 

 

I am going to sit on the sidelines with a bowl of popcorn and watch how this plays out.  I don't think Tesco is doomed but the blood-letting may not be over yet, In the meanwhile there are a number of other, good companies to invest in ........

 

thanks for the warning though....    ;D

 

cheers

Zorro

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always interesting that buffett says all the time dont lose Money rule number one and then he is selling at a loss. also the same few years ago with Conoco.

 

::)

 

Well he presumably thinks he might lose from here.

 

Interesting.  I wonder why.  As in, I think all the industry-wide trends were clear when he bought in.  Maybe what's changed is trust in management.

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always interesting that buffett says all the time dont lose Money rule number one and then he is selling at a loss. also the same few years ago with Conoco.

 

::)

 

Presumably tax losses have significant value to him. I think Tesco is a much different situation than Conoco though. He made a very bad bet on Tesco. Conoco was just bad timing.

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This selling is more like JNJ.  Too many mistakes by management.

 

The troubling thing is that the bad management was pretty obvious a long time ago. It feels Warren was making a bet against the US dollar and thought that Tesco was a safe bet because of historical returns. I never liked that Neil Woodford was selling while Buffett was buying. Woodford would have a much better understanding of the UK market.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesco-boss-says-show-impact-171555416.html

 

"In his memo, Lewis told staff that performance in its core business had improved.

 

"Our recent performance in Food has been one of our strongest for a very long time."

 

He also said that the firm will be adding thousands of additional hours to cope with anticipated extra demand over Christmas,

traditionally the busiest time of the year for British grocers but which saw poor sales figures last year."

 

Next Thursday earnings will be interesting.  :)

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