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NTDOY - Nintendo


moore_capital54

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Picasso is nailing this stuff. Gold & Silver are the best games in the franchise IMO.

 

The game doesn't even have the actual handheld game battling/trading functionality yet as far as I can tell (played it today). There is so much more they can and probably will do with this.

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Great points Picasso.

 

Pokemon has been around for decades, kids would buy cards, watch TV series, which is very limited distribution channel comparing to making Pokemon available on mobile phones. I've probably spent hundreds of dollars buying Pokemon cards for my 2 kids, each Pokemon card is like a dollar bill, that's how much consumer pays per card. I expect all of that, plus a lot more $$ from new players, will go to the mobile games.

 

Other point to note, this is the first time a game driving massive traffic in the real world, there is huge potential in terms of advertising, sales lead etc, a market Nintendo hasn't tapped.

 

I bought some yesterday.

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Yesterday I and my wife go for a walk in the evening. I start Pokemon Go on my phone. It still plays crappy - I guess because my Nexus 4 is old - app freezes when pokemon appear. We see some pokemon in parking lot, there's also a pokegym there, but I could not do anything with my phone. Anyway, a car pulls over to a stop sign nearby. And stands there, and stands there some more. I say "look the guy is also playing the game". Sure enough, the car stands there for another couple minutes, then when traffic appears, he turns the corner and parks nearby with blinkers on.

 

This shit is making people do stupid and unsafe things... :(

 

BTW, can you fix your post. The URL is correct, but the underlying link is not pointing to the same page.

 

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That's crude DG! It's very sad  :'(

 

They weren't kids. They did not die. (Although it's funny that the firefighters found the second one unconscious while rescuing the first one - so the second guy walked of the cliff and fell earlier and maybe would not have been discovered if the first guy would not have walked off the cliff and fallen later...).

 

Want a sad one?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/12/technology/yelp-executive-grand-canyon-death/index.html

She stepped aside to let a guy by and fell to her death. No good dead goes unpunished?

:'(

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2 Kids walk off a cliff playing Pokemon:

 

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pokemon-go-players-stabbed-fall-off-cliff-20160714-snap-story.html

 

 

Natural Selection I suppose. This game will do wonders for population control.

 

People are also finding dead bodies all over the place.  Here's one near me:

http://www.unionleader.com/Pokemon-Go-player-discovers-dead-body-in-Nashua

 

Maybe police detectives should start playing while on duty.

 

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So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

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So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

 

Yes you need to climb the high tension wire towers to get them.

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So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

 

Pika (Electric sound) Chu (Mouse sound). Pikachu the mascot literally translates to electric mouse.

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Want a sad one?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/12/technology/yelp-executive-grand-canyon-death/index.html

She stepped aside to let a guy by and fell to her death. No good dead goes unpunished?

:'(

 

Sad and unfortunately fairly common. When I was there I kept telling myself "Don't step backwards or to the side and always look down when walking." It's pretty frightening walking anywhere near those edges.

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So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

 

Pika (Electric sound) Chu (Mouse sound). Pikachu the mascot literally translates to electric mouse.

 

Gotcha-chu! Arigato!  :D

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Wow, I was walking through a park in my local area and saw at least 50 people camping out by a fountain at 8 pm. They had chairs and iceboxes set up and everything. It was crazy, the police had to come by later to kick everyone out since the park closed.

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Shares are probably ahead of themselves short term, so I sold.  I've learned my lesson with Japanese stocks.  When they pop too quickly they almost always give it all back.  Plus I wanted it to go down to buy more so this is a bit disappointing.  I'm looking more closely at DeNA (2432) to see if there might be a better opportunity there.

 

Just as a side note, longing NTDOY has the issue of having that heavy cash balance.  So maybe the market only valued the business at $10 billion with $9 billion of excess cash a few weeks ago, but at current prices that operating business value went up to $30 billion (backing out the cash) and basically tripled.  It's not nearly as easy staying long when the market suddenly assigns 3x the value to the operating business.  I'll need to return my value investing card once again for owning NTDOY under a week.

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Nope, I think you are right, although this could continue running short term (2-3 months) if the craze continues.

 

I think if I bought July 8th or July 13th when I was thinking of buying, I'd probably have sold by now too. Although the balls of steel would be to hold while craze continues - which would be possibly couple months (or less, or more) and could be another 50-100% perhaps. But this is tough and really not much of a value investing, more like a fad investing.

 

Long term hold is only if you believe this will be long term hit and/or that company turned and gonna continue with hits.

 

Anyway, that's just my 20/20 Monday morning quarterback thoughts. ;)

 

Pikachu!

 

 

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Shares are probably ahead of themselves short term, so I sold.  I've learned my lesson with Japanese stocks.  When they pop too quickly they almost always give it all back. 

 

Good timing Picasso.  Day trader extraordinaire!

 

"Nintendo stock loses ground on report of Pokemon GO delay for Japan"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nintendo-pokemon-stocks-idUSKCN10001H

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All credit should go to Liberty and Joshua Kennedy of Sonian Capital for this idea, go back to page 10 of this thread, they both pinpointed the exact moment it was time to buy Nintendo. Liberty made a 1 line post that summarized the investment case (paraphrase):

 

"Nintendo is finally going to make mobile games"

 

That's all anyone needed to know.  But later on you could read a 15-page version of this comment here, as referenced by Picasso

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bzm9JT6Xfru3Nm9QYWJNUk9YVjg/view?pref=2&pli=1

 

It was a cheap and safe idea and virtually nobody picked up on it until the first mobile game actually came out. The explosive popularity of the first Nintendo mobile game suggests the more optimistic outlook for the upside to be within grasp, and I wouldn't scoff at people putting money down for some shares at current prices

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

This Pokemon Go thing is a complete disaster. It is incredible how much people are focusing on the positive (the desperation for a real Nintendo game on mobile) and not on the negative (the fact that Nintendo seems culturally incapable of pulling it off).

 

johnny, please tell me you're following the trainwreck on /r/pokemongo right now.  Players are so angry that they're actually reading the app store terms of service.  Amazing...

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