PLynchJr Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Another 10% bump in the dividend announced today. Yield nearly 4.5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philip Morris IV Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 As expected. The yield spread between MO and PM is interesting. It's only a point less but with much more than a points-worth of growth potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltacular Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Hat tip to recent contributors in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 A wonderful little $625 million acquisition stake in Algeria which is projected to be accretive to PMI’s earnings per share as of 2014. (I cannot wait for PM to slowly take control of this venture) http://www.pmi.com/eng/media_center/press_releases/Pages/201309300801.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I know I am not FChalie but I have not added to my account as it is one of my largest positions in my portfolio. However, I am strongly considering adding to my parents account as they love dividends! The stock is pretty much flat from last year and have reduced their shares outstanding by about 4% since then. This goes back to what Buffett wrote about IBM in his annual report. The longer it stays flat, the more stock they can repurchase thus increasing our percentage in the companies future earnings. I am still sticking to what I wrote earlier in the thread and I am long PM. This is the type of company you buy and forget about for the next 20-25 years. Thanks, S FCharlie, have you been adding some PM at these levels? Speaking of Buffett, I feel PM/MO is the perfect type of stock for him. My theory is that he doesn't buy because he is such a public figure that it would stir up more controversy that it is worth. Today it is $83, anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Not really sure why it's down...my best guess is having something to do with anticipating the Fed raising rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjone Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 FCharlie, ourkid, and whoever else follows this... I was just comparing '08 to '12. Obviously this is really superficial, but unit sales went from 870 B to 927 B, about 1.6% per year. Is that the kind of unit sales growth they expect in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxx1313 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 In the following press article a reason was given for the recent weak performance of tobacco stocks: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/weaker-defensives-drag-ftse-down-highs-095851874--finance.html Imperial Tobacco fell 2.9 percent and British American Tobacco 1 percent, after reports that China's health officials wanted to ban smoking in public places by the end of this year. "With China, there's a lot of concern over smog and air pollution. The doors have been flung open with regards to reform, and with that will come a change in standards with regards to healthcare," said Alastair McCaig, an analyst at IG. "It will increasingly become the focus, and that's a battle that tobacco companies are going to have to face in the coming years." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 As per management, 2014 industry volumes are expected to decline by 2-3%. Beyond 2014, industry volumes are anticipated to decline gradually to a level of 1% to 2%. PM should be able to outperform industry volumes in a stronger economy since PM controls the premium segment. Long term, management has stated a goal of growing volumes organically 0% to +1%. NGP should help organic growth volumes (Potentially allowing full access to China) and this will roll out in 2016 but for now I am going to stick with a +1% volume growth estimate. My +1% volume growth estimate includes acquisitions as further country specific consolidation will continue to happen. (I try to take a conservative view) Thanks, S FCharlie, ourkid, and whoever else follows this... I was just comparing '08 to '12. Obviously this is really superficial, but unit sales went from 870 B to 927 B, about 1.6% per year. Is that the kind of unit sales growth they expect in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltacular Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Not really sure why it's down...my best guess is having something to do with anticipating the Fed raising rates. What about strengthening dollar as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 PM and BATS are starting to look mighty interesting especially for dividend portfolios. Why am I interested because everyone hates EM now and smoking sounds good to me :D If it stays at these levels to next week I am a buyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just out of curiosity, why does it have to stay at these levels through next week for you to be a buyer?! Got a ten million share position to put on ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well money ebb's and flows so I am just hoping the timing will be fine as next week as money might flow :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Think you might even get it a bit cheaper next week. One of the big issues for this puppy over the last couple years has been the miserable strength in the dollar. Wouldn't be surprised if they have to take a few pennies off their 2014 estimate next week given the EM currency declines since their last projection in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We all need to remember Buffett's shareholder letter when he explained why he wished IBM would languish around the current price so they can repurchase a large amount of shares on the cheap. This is exactly the same for PM, I really hope it languishes around $80/share so they can complete the remaining $12B in their current share repurchase program. (The next one will not be this large) We all need to remember, currency does net out evenly over the long term so there will be a time in which it would be a tail wind for PM. In 2016, with the reduction of $12B in stock + a currency tail wind + back to organic growth this is just a coiled spring waiting to take off. Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnejad Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 "We all need to remember, currency does net out evenly over the long term" Why's that? Certaintly doesn't seem to be the case for the Argentine peso-- http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ARSUSD%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well I don't know but i trust Tweedy Browne http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/How%20Hedging%20Can%20FUND%20Version.pdf However, we believe that studies and our own experience have generally shown that over long measurement periods, the returns of hedged portfolios have been similar to the returns of portfolios that have not been hedged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There is no good reason to believe "currency nets out over time". I have no basis to think Yen will go back to 80. Peso, bolivar, rand, all the bits and pieces in north africa, etc. haven't a clue what happens to them - although if i had to bet it would be that they'll do worse than the dollar for the rest of my life. As I just use the exchange rates as I find them I've had to adjust my $ valuation of PM this year and last year. $ Operating Income will be down in 2013, and again in 2014. In my opinion, the intrinsic value per share of PM is probably only very slightly higher today than it was in late 2011 - and that is after spending $12bn on repurchases. Still think it's a fine investment though! But a bit disappointed that the shares I bought in 2011 don't have a bigger margin of safety accrued into them by now from all the repurchases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 well if you invert and think about is there any currency out there that will be stronger then the dollar? Sure Africa in general and Argentina will be bad but that does not mean South Korea or china will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well I don't know but i trust Tweedy Browne http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/How%20Hedging%20Can%20FUND%20Version.pdf However, we believe that studies and our own experience have generally shown that over long measurement periods, the returns of hedged portfolios have been similar to the returns of portfolios that have not been hedged. That's not at all the same as saying that currencies net out. What it means is that hedges are only good to smooth a year or so - they don't alter the economics of moves in currencies over the longterm. They give you a one off gain/loss to make one year's exchange rate similar to the last - they don't mean that you can sell into a market at last years exchange rate indefinitely. So lets say you hedge 10bn of revenue of yen in 2012 for 2013 at 100. That means when you get you revenue in 2013 when the yens gone to 80 you get to exchange at 100 and collect your $100m. But NEXT year, hedging for 2014, if you want to hedge in 2013 you're going to be hedging at 80. So wherever the yens gone the most your going to get in $ for your 10bn yen is $80m. Your business is worth 20% less - you just got a one off benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 well if you invert and think about is there any currency out there that will be stronger then the dollar? Sure Africa in general and Argentina will be bad but that does not mean South Korea or china will be bad. I really don't know. The biggies for PM are Euro and Yen. I just value PM every year using current prevailing rates - and hope for the best. The last two years it's been strongly against them, which is a shame because it would be nice if $79 was a better deal today that $79 in Jan 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Sure the Yen might be bad but is the RMB. And as a business you can choose where to produce to take advantage of currency fluctuation. But as a shopper on the market I look for when currency's are bad for a specific company because maybe I get a depressed price and hope things will even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 When I said currencies will net out, I was talking about the major currencies. Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Asta, Sorry, but I fail to see what relevance the RMB has to a discussion about PM. Also, I don't really understand what you're envisaging when you say "a business can choose where to produce and take advantage of currency fluctuations". If PM sells cigarettes in Yen, and the Yen drops 25% what can they do?? It's a question of trying to limit the OI decline to the revenue decline by trying to get the COGS to go down proportionately. Even that is usually impossible as are lot of central functions with be $ costs. You seem to be suggesting that a good business would be finding ways to not just avoid the leverage effects on their OI, but somehow get their OI to decline meaningfully less than revenue by taking advantage of currencies. I don't understand the math, are you thinking they can move COGS of their Japanese business to a currency that has fallen even more than the Yen… maybe they're going to hire Venezuelans for their Japanese operations! By the way thanks for the Aggreko idea - just started reading the 2012 ar and enjoying it so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 thefatbaboon i think you are 80% right was just rambling a bit. But the part of things might be reversed still holds true therefore maybe PM or BATS is a good investment :D I have not bought it though :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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