wisdom Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Vancouver is struggling - SFD sales are tough and often have no bids. But condos in Vancouver are still selling for the moment but the clock is ticking on them as well. Not sure what the bulls are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 The bank just forecloses, and simply rents out the property until the market turns around. Systemic stability. Not sure if this was meant tongue-in-cheek. If not, really?! Do banks own real estate and rent out the property? Aren't REO properties gotten rid of asap? Are banks in Canada interested in carrying on holding foreclosed properties and renting them out? Hardly seems plausible, but then again, what do I know? The bank cares about getting its money back as reliably as possible, assumes the homeowner is bankrupt, and tries to minimize its 'trashed place' risk by repossessing and evicting as soon as practicable. Thereafter it's more about managing earnings risk. If the sale means only a modest loan loss, it'll be liquidated - & the loss either written off against provisions, or added to the bankrupts debts (assumes there will be a collection). If the individual sale means a large loss, & the volume of sales would further depress the market; the house is held off the market. It'll be rented out at market rate to minimize ongoing losses as much as possible - until the house is eventually sold for enough to recover all the costs to date. The more expensive the house/neighborhood (1.5M+) the more likely this will be the way it'll go. If you could afford to buy, you wait for the blood to flow; & then make the bank an offer to lease the place for X years, subject to a purchase right of first refusal. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 what is everyone's guess about Toronto's house prices going forward. it dropped 15 20 percent from peak, but still up 15 20 percent from last year and that's after 20 years of gain.. more upside? flat? more downside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Well i can say what happens if we go full correction. We get another 10-15% drop over the fall and winter. Then it levels off for a while - 9 to 12 months - then you get another 10-15% leg down and then it says there for a few years. However it's really hard to say what will come to pass. Vancouver prices have been insane for a long time. Also, there are places in the world, like Australia, which have been at bubble levels for more than a decade. So it's very hard to tell where it goes from here. But I think after this episode, the bloom is off the rose so to say. I don't think there's much of a chance of a strong recovery from where we are. My personal view is negative. If the government follows through on their plans there will be massive tightening of credit for residential real estate come September (when this this is supposed to take off - per realtors). It's really hard to have a bubble without credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 The global liquidity and wealth has grown tremendously since 2000 - primarily on the back of real estate. It is impossible to say what the future holds - but it is strange that little known places in Canada cost more than cities with robust economic growth in the U.S Well i can say what happens if we go full correction. We get another 10-15% drop over the fall and winter. Then it levels off for a while - 9 to 12 months - then you get another 10-15% leg down and then it says there for a few years. However it's really hard to say what will come to pass. Vancouver prices have been insane for a long time. Also, there are places in the world, like Australia, which have been at bubble levels for more than a decade. So it's very hard to tell where it goes from here. But I think after this episode, the bloom is off the rose so to say. I don't think there's much of a chance of a strong recovery from where we are. My personal view is negative. If the government follows through on their plans there will be massive tightening of credit for residential real estate come September (when this this is supposed to take off - per realtors). It's really hard to have a bubble without credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2017 Author Share Posted August 8, 2017 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/home-capital-managers-ignored-warnings-from-regulators-industry-partners-report/article35896961/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-15/canadian-home-prices-tumble-most-since-2008-recession-on-toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 still up like 20% yoy in Toronto. the 40% run in a year was too much..... not sure how ppl can afford one... it will be like mortgage for life even for middle class family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 still up like 20% yoy in Toronto. the 40% run in a year was too much..... not sure how ppl can afford one... it will be like mortgage for life even for middle class family. I don't think Toronto in up 20% y/y. Also from now on you have to pay real good attention and parse the numbers. When numbers don't support the story anymore real estate boards will try to obfuscate the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 still up like 20% yoy in Toronto. the 40% run in a year was too much..... not sure how ppl can afford one... it will be like mortgage for life even for middle class family. I don't think Toronto in up 20% y/y. Also from now on you have to pay real good attention and parse the numbers. When numbers don't support the story anymore real estate boards will try to obfuscate the data. Condo prices in the downtown core have jumped significantly over the last few months. Rents for 1 bedroom condos in my building have gone from 1950/month in April to 2400/month now. A 1+1 bedroom unit in my building was just listed for 30% more than it sold for 20 months ago and the real estate agent told me he had 3 requests from buyers to view it the same afternoon he listed it. There have been a number of local news articles about fierce competition and bidding wars over rental units lately. The prices seem incredibly high when compared to local wages but there seems to be no shortage of buyers willing to pay these prices from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Condo prices in the downtown core have jumped significantly over the last few months. Rents for 1 bedroom condos in my building have gone from 1950/month in April to 2400/month now. A 1+1 bedroom unit in my building was just listed for 30% more than it sold for 20 months ago and the real estate agent told me he had 3 requests from buyers to view it the same afternoon he listed it. There have been a number of local news articles about fierce competition and bidding wars over rental units lately. The prices seem incredibly high when compared to local wages but there seems to be no shortage of buyers willing to pay these prices from what I can see. Condo prices in the 416 are down by 8% from April to July. Edit: It is true that it has been the best performing real estate class during the period. Most likely benefiting from substitution because of lower price tag and people that can't perform NPVs on maintenance fees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Reaching out to west cost members here. Please let me know what would be some middle class suburbs of Vancouver. Not poor, not posh, just regular middle class. If you know about Toronto, I'm thinking along the lines of Mississauga. Also what is a good site to find rental homes in the Vancouver area? Is it realtor.ca or is there some other site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Vancouver proper is hard to come by homes in a reasonable price or rental cost. In my opinion Burnaby is the nicest suburb. North Burnaby (Capitol Hill, Burnaby Heights or around SFU have some good neighbourhood feels and schools are alright. 20 min to downtown if u need to commute. Houses range from $1.2 million for a tear down to $2.5million for a reasonable size home with good level finishing. Rental costs for a house will be minimum $3000/month for a whole house but you may find some where there is a tenant in a basement suite and the main house rents for under $3000 then. I know a bit more about suburbs of Coquitlam/Port Moody if a longer commute (45-1hr) downtown is ok Not sure about rental sites - i think alot is craigslist and kijiji for rentals. Reaching out to west cost members here. Please let me know what would be some middle class suburbs of Vancouver. Not poor, not posh, just regular middle class. If you know about Toronto, I'm thinking along the lines of Mississauga. Also what is a good site to find rental homes in the Vancouver area? Is it realtor.ca or is there some other site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 "08:16 AM EDT, 09/06/2017 (MT Newswires) -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos said Wednesday that Toronto home sales were down nearly 35% in August compared to the previous year. The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS System, at 11,523, was down by 6.7% year-over-year and at the lowest level for August since 2010. "Recent reports suggest that economic conditions remain strong in the GTA," said Syrianos. "Positive economic news coupled with the slower pace of price growth we are now experiencing could prompt an improvement in the demand for ownership housing, over and above the regular seasonal bump, as we move through the fall." Despite the sales decline, the average selling price for all home types combined was $732,292, a 3% rise from last year. This growth was driven by the semi-detached, townhouse and condominium apartment market segments that continued to experience high single-digit or double digit year-over-year average price increases." Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 14, 2017 Author Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit. Please elaborate. They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit. Please elaborate. They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend. Yea they throw the kitchen sink to make the number seem larger. Also the way the do it basically makes sure you double count some stuff for example renovations and maintenance&repair. There's gonna be double counting there. Also they make stuff up just to add it in there. Imputed rent for all homeowners? Really? First of all that's not even part of GDP. You can't add it to something and take it as a % of GDP. I'm willing to bet that in the transfer costs they include land transfer tax and that's also not part of GDP. In addition, they include housing wealth effect. There's no way to actually calculate that and also it has nothing to do with GDP. These are just a few things that are wrong with that. There are others. The thing is that Statscan actually measures and publishes housing activity in GDP. They do it very rigorously and properly. I think it's around 10% and yes that also on the high side historically speaking. But this guy chose not to use the Statscan numbers but make his own hocus pocus doctored measure to get a larger headline number so it'll me more flashy. That really grates my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 If I recall correctly the past peaks have been at 7%. US might have peaked at 5% in 2008. Canada is over 7%. Is it 8% or 12%? Doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 14, 2017 Author Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit. Please elaborate. They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend. Yea they throw the kitchen sink to make the number seem larger. Also the way the do it basically makes sure you double count some stuff for example renovations and maintenance&repair. There's gonna be double counting there. Also they make stuff up just to add it in there. Imputed rent for all homeowners? Really? First of all that's not even part of GDP. You can't add it to something and take it as a % of GDP. I'm willing to bet that in the transfer costs they include land transfer tax and that's also not part of GDP. In addition, they include housing wealth effect. There's no way to actually calculate that and also it has nothing to do with GDP. These are just a few things that are wrong with that. There are others. The thing is that Statscan actually measures and publishes housing activity in GDP. They do it very rigorously and properly. I think it's around 10% and yes that also on the high side historically speaking. But this guy chose not to use the Statscan numbers but make his own hocus pocus doctored measure to get a larger headline number so it'll me more flashy. That really grates my ass. You're right, it's not a very good chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 This chart seems legit, he said tentatively: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 This chart seems legit, he said tentatively: Yep, that's legit. Fun fact though: be careful of charts that compare US and Canadian debt/income those measures are calculated differently and the Canadian measure shows higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 This chart seems legit, he said tentatively: Yep, that's legit. Fun fact though: be careful of charts that compare US and Canadian debt/income those measures are calculated differently and the Canadian measure shows higher. Yeah, I was aware of that, but I know that many aren't and it's a common mistake. Thanks for pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtermdave Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-16/eisman-warns-canada-housing-heading-for-slump-cibc-most-exposed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-mortgage-rules-1.4358048 Mortgage rules tightening further - would be interesting to see how this impacts an already slowing market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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