finetrader Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I am 100% notional invested in BAC based on actual stock price. About 30% of my portfolio is in BAC (stock, warrant, leaps). So this allow me to have ample free cash ~30% to average down would the market go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I don't have much BAC and I don't have very high conviction on it. I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. like what percentage u guys put in? I first hit 100% notional in-the-money upside in the low $5 range, and I've been adding to it on the way up. A few more pennies and my $10 strikes come into the money, then my $12.50s. >>I first hit 100% notional in-the-money upside in the low $5 range, What's that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I am 100% notional invested in BAC based on actual stock price. About 30% of my portfolio is in BAC (stock, warrant, leaps). So this allow me to have ample free cash ~30% to average down would the market go south. So, BAC pretty much double from $5.. do it mean u double your portfolio during the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I don't have much BAC and I don't have very high conviction on it. I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. like what percentage u guys put in? I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. Or like what percentage u guys put in? Which is the correct one... just pulling your leg. I had around 35% in warrants when they were in $2-2.20 range. I had 2% in leaps as well. I don't think that everyone will have that high concentration but most people, who were bullish on this, will have decent size position. But again decent size position or big position will mean different for different people. I meant if normal position for some one is 2-3% then even 5% will look like like a big position. Some guys are holding more than one bank so concentration will be less on BAC but they have large exposure to banks. Now, we are talking. Congrats - that's a quick 40%+ YTD for u . I have maybe 3% position on this. Similar position in C. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 say10-15% at just above 8 in BAC spread between $7 2013s, 7.50 2014s, $10 2014s, and $12 2014 s I got earlier this week. sold my 10 2013 s in the last couple of days as a risk man. exercise. Some warrants and some common in the RSP. another 10-12 % in WFC And JPm together. I hadn't seen a pitch like this since 2009 spring. My problem now is leaving things alone. The WFC and JPM are all in the money significantly. The BAC is such a huge position but then I have waited nearly 2 years to double the investment in 2 or 3 weeks. Should it rapidly rise above TBV I will have to look at further risk reduction, either through selling or buying low value puts to stave off the tax issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I don't have much BAC and I don't have very high conviction on it. I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. like what percentage u guys put in? I first hit 100% notional in-the-money upside in the low $5 range, and I've been adding to it on the way up. A few more pennies and my $10 strikes come into the money, then my $12.50s. >>I first hit 100% notional in-the-money upside in the low $5 range, What's that mean? It means instead of putting 100% of my net worth in BAC common, I bought an equivalent amount of $5 strike calls. Then as the stock went up I stopped being such a pussy and bought more. My net worth is up 39% since Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorsia1 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 It means instead of putting 100% of my net worth in BAC common, I bought an equivalent amount of $5 strike calls. Then as the stock went up I stopped being such a pussy and bought more. My net worth is up 39% since Tuesday morning. That's fantastic. Congratulations. I put about 5% of my net worth into the $10 2014's at $1.10. May it continue to run up. I love how you went all in. That took some jam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 24% in stock and 5 % in warrants before the move. AIG is a similar holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 There is a point coming (hopefully soon) when I'll decide to switch some money back to the AIG warrants. They look very attractive still, but as I was saying earlier (a couple of weeks ago) it makes absolutely no sense for BAC to be at this large a discount to JPM, and I figure there will be convergence in valuation (not complete convergence for quite some time, but this has been too wide a gap). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 I don't have much BAC and I don't have very high conviction on it. I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. like what percentage u guys put in? We put 20% of the funds into BAC, WFC and AIG. We had 5% in BAC equity, 5% in BAC warrants, 7% in WFC, and 3% in AIG warrants. We do not have a lockup, so those were very large positions for us in a specific industry...financials...not to mention we already own Fairfax and Berkshire. If we had lockups, I would have put 20% into BAC alone when it was below $6. Unlike other funds, our partners can pull capital with 60 days notice, so we cannot do what you might do in your own personal account or a fund that has lockups. We sold the AIG warrants as BAC and WFC moved up, because we like the CEO's of those two companies a hell of a lot more, and we like the fact that BAC is simplifying their business back to the basics. We haven't sold a single share of BAC or WFC, or the BAC warrants. We have started to add very small amounts of out of the money puts on BAC, and we'll continue to do that as the stock continues to move to tangible book and then book value. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Now, we are talking. Congrats - that's a quick 40%+ YTD for u . I have maybe 3% position on this. Similar position in C. Can't complain. I think this YTD is kind of useless figure. Annualized returns are even more useless. What matters is the long term returns over inflation. There are many ways to do this and I know some people who do it very well with 20-30 ideas in their portfolio. I can't find that many ideas to get comfortable with so normally I stick to maximum 10-12 ideas( 3-4% to 10-15% position size). For fund managers , it will be difficult to take that big(30-40%) a position without any lock up unless it is in separately managed accounts. I also don't put 40% in one position all the time. Last time I put more than 25% in one idea was with AXP in 2009. At both times, I was not planning to put that much but as they got cheaper I kept swapping the positions and base position kept getting bigger. I did not have any hard target figure. Only thing I keep in mind is to never put close to 70-80% in one idea because if it blows up then it will take long time to get back. We have plenty of folks in this forum who do it very well with different ways. I feel everyone should stick to what they feel comfortable with, otherwise it's difficult stick to it for long. I am comfortable with risking 30-40% in one idea as long as risk reward is very favorable but I won’t risk 70-80% ever. Hopefully some usual suspects don’t start lecturing me after seeing my position size that banks are black box and no one can invest , it all speculations etc. I took that size because I was comfortable with their improvements from 2008 till now and they got too cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Guys, thanks for another lesson on how to swing big when the time comes! The other side of the story is have cash ready to swing or courage to switch to better horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 just a thought,.... like berkowitz, many investors that are up significantly YTD, got hurt big time last year (i did), so rather than looking at the good news only, wouldn't it be fair(er) to look at the combined 2011/2012 performance on BAC, AIG etc? like the idea of adding small amount of insurance in the form of puts..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 200% notional in LEAPS (youngish and not a money manager). Hoping to have the good fortune to have AIG remain cheap a little longer so I can roll some BAC gains into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I don't have much BAC and I don't have very high conviction on it. I am surprised how little u guys put in given how bullish u guys seem.. like what percentage u guys put in? We put 20% of the funds into BAC, WFC and AIG. We had 5% in BAC equity, 5% in BAC warrants, 7% in WFC, and 3% in AIG warrants. We do not have a lockup, so those were very large positions for us in a specific industry...financials...not to mention we already own Fairfax and Berkshire. If we had lockups, I would have put 20% into BAC alone when it was below $6. Unlike other funds, our partners can pull capital with 60 days notice, so we cannot do what you might do in your own personal account or a fund that has lockups. We sold the AIG warrants as BAC and WFC moved up, because we like the CEO's of those two companies a hell of a lot more, and we like the fact that BAC is simplifying their business back to the basics. We haven't sold a single share of BAC or WFC, or the BAC warrants. We have started to add very small amounts of out of the money puts on BAC, and we'll continue to do that as the stock continues to move to tangible book and then book value. Cheers! Congrats Parsad and everyone else (too many to name them all) who are enjoying this recovery to fair value. I'm proud to be in such good company! During the mini-panic last August I put a little over 20% into three commons stocks. BAC at $5.16, WFC at $25.25, and BRK A at $104,500. I'm very happy with these prices as I usually get too early. My error was not buying more BAC, but hey, I can't recall any great purchase where in hindsight I didn't say the same thing. Although my net worth isn't going up as quickly as Eric and others with balls of steel, the last 5 months have blown away my expectations. Great times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Looks we are all pump.. is it time to raise cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mevsemt Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Here's a link to my 2011 returns (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2012/01/2011-returns.html). Toward the end of the post I show my holdings as of 12/31/2011 (and since then the only thing I've done is trim back on SHLD a little). From the closing paragraph: And I'm not sure whether to call it stubbornness or arrogance, but I've effectively doubled down on Sears and re-initiated a significant position in BAC. My hope is 2012 will prove to be a better year for these struggling companies, and with Sears's assets and BAC's core business, they both have a ton of potential. Needless to say, it's been an exciting few months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Lol I thought I was nuts for having a 27% common position in BAC. Guess not! Gratz guys. ;) (I was up 8.5% in 2011 and now around 30% for 2012. No leverage of any kind. Small portfolio.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Looks we are all pump.. is it time to raise cash? For me it's not time until we get to spreads like we saw this time last year for BAC relative to WFC and JPM. The discount has been 100% about fears of raising dilutive equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Lol I thought I was nuts for having a 27% common position in BAC. Guess not! Gratz guys. ;) (I was up 8.5% in 2011 and now around 30% for 2012. No leverage of any kind. Small portfolio.) Those are extremely good returns. I have been sick with volatility. Hopefully I may not find myself in such a deep hole again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 It is hard not to let the price chart influence the decision-making process. This is a 50 cent dollar at the current price. Everybody now: "fortress balance sheet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Lol I thought I was nuts for having a 27% common position in BAC. Guess not! Gratz guys. ;) (I was up 8.5% in 2011 and now around 30% for 2012. No leverage of any kind. Small portfolio.) Those are extremely good returns. I have been sick with volatility. Hopefully I may not find myself in such a deep hole again. Luck or skill, time will tell! :) Volatility has been really decent for me. Biggest drop in one position was in the last two weeks with FTP dropping from $37 to $28 (30% position) where I bought more. If it was at $37 I would be up 40-45% for the year so it's all relative. :) I'll be selling some BAC at TBV for things like BRK and FFH (if under 1.2xBV). It's a bit silly because $12-13 is nowhere near intrinsic value but at some point I guess you have to make a risk management decision to go for some safer 75-80c dollar bill instead of the more riskier 50-60c dollar bill. I'm expecting BRK and FFH to do very well in the next 3-5 years but for now I am enjoying the ride! OT: In that way I also have no idea how I could achieve a 25-40% turnover-rate in my portfolio. I trade to much because I don't wait for intrinsic value to happen. There is no reason to do that with a 5-number portfolio if you have plenty of opportunities to switch to things that are 20-30% cheaper or much safer at some point. Do others have the same 'problem'? I like the idea of a low turnover but it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense for me, under- and overvaluation in things you know really well are "too easy" to spot to sit on your hands. Edit: Oh I must say that I don't get taxed on profits. That's probably a big reason for others to hold on longer to certain things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Right after Q1 earnings MisterStockWell informed us that Doug Kass "took out a short rental at $7.20". How is that guy doing with that short by the way? A couple of weeks ago I saw him pass a comment that he was expecting a pullback of 6%-10% and named BAC as one of the stocks to buy on the weakness (so he was recommending people to buy it for more than where he shorted it at). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 this thread makes me nervous :) i personally dont like to cheer until the profits are actually booked. i own truckloads of bac and im not cheering about it.. yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 It is hard not to let the price chart influence the decision-making process. This is a 50 cent dollar at the current price. Everybody now: "fortress balance sheet". You are right, they are almost there. Just need to continue doing what they have been doing. Moynihan has right attitude for this job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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