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AIQ - Alliance Healthcare


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Just remember that they capped 50% of their variable debt:

 

"In the fourth quarter of 2013, the Company entered into five interest rate cap agreements ("2013 Caps"), in accordance with Company policy, to avoid unplanned volatility in the income statement due to changes in the LIBOR interest rate environment. The 2013 Caps, which mature in December 2016, had a notional amount of $250,000 and were designated as cash flow hedges of future cash interest payments associated with a portion of the Company’s variable rate bank debt. Under these arrangements, the Company has purchased a cap on LIBOR at 2.50%. The Company paid $815 to enter into the caps, which is being amortized through interest expense and other, net over the life of the agreements."

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One possibility (which I think is remote) is a delisting.  Oaktree has management on board at Pulse Electronics another Oaktree controlled company.  Pulse is much smaller and Oaktree controls both the debt and equity of Pulse so I think the situation is much different.  The price decline began when AIQ said it was not for sale when a restructuring adviser was seen at AIQ.

 

Also since Rennasiance Capital is large shareholders in AIQ and RDNT, I wonder if they are doing some sort of pair trade with these two.  This is just speculation however.

 

Packer

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One possibility (which I think is remote) is a delisting.  Oaktree has management on board at Pulse Electronics another Oaktree controlled company.  Pulse is much smaller and Oaktree controls both the debt and equity of Pulse so I think the situation is much different.  The price decline began when AIQ said it was not for sale when a restructuring adviser was seen at AIQ.

 

Also since Rennasiance Capital is large shareholders in AIQ and RDNT, I wonder if they are doing some sort of pair trade with these two.  This is just speculation however.

 

Packer

 

Packer,

Have you by chance looked at pulse? I noticed the drop it had for the delisting.

 

An old Vic post here had a potential asset sale value of 55m and current market cap is 26m. Haven't researched yet to see if this number still applies currently.  Oak tree purchased 11m of 17m outstanding shares in Feb I believe.

 

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1402746.htm

 

2014 bonds priced at 80 might be another possibility...

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FPULSMAC&symbol=PULS.AC

 

http://www.bullvsbear.net/idea/PULSE_ELECTRONICS_CORP/77710

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One possibility (which I think is remote) is a delisting.  Oaktree has management on board at Pulse Electronics another Oaktree controlled company.  Pulse is much smaller and Oaktree controls both the debt and equity of Pulse so I think the situation is much different.  The price decline began when AIQ said it was not for sale when a restructuring adviser was seen at AIQ.

 

Also since Rennasiance Capital is large shareholders in AIQ and RDNT, I wonder if they are doing some sort of pair trade with these two.  This is just speculation however.

 

Packer

 

Wouldn't a pair trade be a positive for aiq's dtock price given that it is the cheaper one of the two? I think I'm misunderstanding what you are saying here. :)

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One aspect of potential delisting is size.  Pulse is much smaller than AIQ so the savings are more material and Oaktree has control over the debt plus equity of Pulse versus the equity of AIQ.  If they did delist I may pick up more as there would be a reaction like Pulse.

 

As to Pulse, I am looking into it bit it is in a more highly levered state than AIQ.  They do not have enough EBIDTA to cover total interest but only enough to cover cash interest.  At this point the equity is more like a LEAP than equity.

 

Packer

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Can someone educate me about how a large shareholder like Oaktree would exit this stock if they wanted to end their investment? Obviously, the stock price would get killed if they started unloading their position.

 

They are not selling or we'd see it in the form 4's. And I'm not sure I understand the pair trade that Packer floated as a possibility. Or how would a delisting help, other than saving filing expenses?

 

Dave

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Can someone educate me about how a large shareholder like Oaktree would exit this stock if they wanted to end their investment? Obviously, the stock price would get killed if they started unloading their position.

 

They are not selling or we'd see it in the form 4's. And I'm not sure I understand the pair trade that Packer floated as a possibility. Or how would a delisting help, other than saving filing expenses?

 

Dave

 

Just spitballing, because I don't have any experience with this either, I'm guessing the strategy with delisting is one of a couple of things:

 

1. Since they don't have to file with the SEC, they could slowly unload their shares without having to file anything with the SEC, so the share price wouldn't get hit hard once the filings go public.

 

2. This is basically the opposite of above: delisting looks like it would hit the share price pretty hard, and with good reason: delisting makes the stock way less liquid. This would provide Oaktree with the opportunity to buy up more shares at a lower price by providing liquidity to people wanting out after an announcement has been made, but before the stock delists, and by providing liquidity after the delisting. After a year or so, they could then find a buyer.

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I left Tom a voicemail but have yet to hear back from them. Will let you guys know if I do. Cheers

 

 

I feel we are starting to discuss these 'remote' possibilities without having a good understanding of what's driving the price drop.

 

Does anyone on the board have contact with management?

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Nicely put. The volume has not been significant.  I was going to ask them more about their plans for fcf and sale of the business. I doubt they will call...

 

If you've watched the trade sizes, you'll see minuscule odd lots through the day.  Don't let the drip-drop of small investors or a daily volume that barely approaches $1M inform your ideas about the company.  I doubt management will have anything to say about the recent price action, nor should they.

 

I feel we are starting to discuss these 'remote' possibilities without having a good understanding of what's driving the price drop.

 

Does anyone on the board have contact with management?

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These are remote possibilities and the stock is so thinly traded about $500k per day, I doubt there are many active participants.  The micro/small-cap indicies of which AIQ are a part are also down year to date.  We will see how low it can go.

 

Packer

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I had a telephone discussion with management yesterday - they very much feel like they are doing well; using fcf to fund growth opportunities.    They are not aware of OakTree getting out. They normally do not comment on rumours regarding company buyout; but in this case they filed an 8K because they saw that as affecting ongoing working relationship with hospital / customers -

On share price-  they feel the drop is likely due to AIQ being part of the Russell 3000 and the fact it is thinly traded. 

Hope this helps

Gary

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I know the stock is thinly traded and that markets can be inefficient at times but this is really something. If AIQ was valued at an equal EV/EBITDA as Radnet (now x8.6), the stock would trade around $80/share. I'm happy to take $50+ but Radnet after all has a much higher debt to ebitda ratio and as far as I can tell is the lesser business. What is the market expecting for Radnet?

 

Guess I'm stubborn, added some today.

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I know the stock is thinly traded and that markets can be inefficient at times but this is really something. If AIQ was valued at an equal EV/EBITDA as Radnet (now x8.6), the stock would trade around $80/share. I'm happy to take $50+ but Radnet after all has a much higher debt to ebitda ratio and as far as I can tell is the lesser business. What is the market expecting for Radnet?

 

Guess I'm stubborn, added some today.

 

AIQ went from down about 2% when you wrote this to up 3.67% at close. You should complain more often!

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