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VIV.PA - Vivendi (ADR: VIVHY)


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http://www.lonelyvalue.com/2011/01/vivendi-speaks-language-of-love.html

http://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.fr/2012/04/vivendi-update.html

http://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.fr/2012/04/vivendi-update.html

http://valueandopportunity.com/2012/04/17/quick-check-vivendi-sa-seth-klarman-cigar-butt/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/vivendi-s-sfr-cuts-ad-spending-amid-strategy-review.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-18/vivendi-ceo-faces-call-for-asset-review-after-stock-slump

 

Random tweets and comments:

 

Thesis

 

* Vivendi’s marketcap has shrunk by more than 30% since it agreed in April last year to buy Vodafonee’s 44% in SFR

* “Our conglomerate discount has become gigantic, close to 40 percent,” -Fourtou, Vivendi Chairman

* Vivendi CEO Under Fire to Tackle Stock’s 9-Year Low

* Maroc+Activision are publicly traded, Vivendi's share worth €11.5B compared to its €15B marketcap. Add Canal Plus+Universal Music+ SFR+GVT+...

* Vivendi’s marketcap of €15B is less than the €18B valuation for SFR alone, based on the price Vivendi paid for Vodafone’s 44% stake.

* From a FCF perspective, Vivendi generated €2,40 per share

* High dividend yield: €1 per share dividend

* CEO focused on emerging markets growth, citing GVT’s pay-TV push in Brazil. Vivendi’s revenue in emerging markets reached €5.5B in 2011

 

Some Issues:

* Competition from Iliad, which began services as France’s fourth mobile-operator in January.

* Horrible acquisition history: NBC anyone? and even the acquisition of the remaining % of SFR looks bad.

* Risks of increased competition on the three pillars of the group (Activision Blizzard, UMG, SFR).

* Universal Music’s November purchase of EMI Group’s recorded music unit for $1.9B is being investigated by the U.S. and the European Union

* Dividend cut after hinting a raise.

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Mgmt looks pretty poor. Core business getting hammered. Politically, France looks to be a mess and taxes for business look to be going up.

 

One French stock I did establish a position in today was TOT. Also has issues; guess I am just more comfortable investing in oil.

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Do you know the Unsponsored ADR(VIVHY) is anything related to Vivendi? Is it even valid to invest in this security at all? Any clarification would be very helpful.

 

Unsponsored ADRs

 

" Vivendi does not sponsor an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) facility in respect of its shares. Any ADR facility currently in existence is “unsponsored” and has no ties whatsoever to Vivendi. Vivendi disclaims any liability in respect of such facility."

 

Check the link below:

 

http://www.vivendi.com/vivendi/ADR,5281

 

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Do you know the Unsponsored ADR(VIVHY) is anything related to Vivendi? Is it even valid to invest in this security at all? Any clarification would be very helpful.

 

Unsponsored ADRs

 

" Vivendi does not sponsor an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) facility in respect of its shares. Any ADR facility currently in existence is “unsponsored” and has no ties whatsoever to Vivendi. Vivendi disclaims any liability in respect of such facility."

 

Check the link below:

 

http://www.vivendi.com/vivendi/ADR,5281

 

Unsponsored means that the company doesn't need to file with the SEC or follow GAAP conventions.  It doesn't mean this is some renegade security that a con-man created to cheat unknowing American investors out of their cash.  Check the transfer agent if you're worried and call the bank that's creating the ADRs.  The process as I recall is the bank buys ordinary shares overseas and then issues American securities as ADRs.  A sponsored ADR is where the company agrees to US listing requirements, filing requirements and puts in money for some of the costs.

 

The bottom line is if you're worried at all just buy the French shares.  The commission is about $20 more at Fidelity for the ordinary over ADR, and I'd say $20 is worth your piece of mind.  The ADRs make sense for people trying to invest in a retirement account where buying international securities is a bit more difficult.

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Morningstar has a good article about the history for new entrant, low cost carriers. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iliads-entrance-not-busy-signal-110000561.html Risk is that Vivendi responds aggressively on price, rather than simply loosing lower end customers. 

 

There's a rumor that Vincent Bolloré, soon to be 4% holder, could join the board. http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/04/20/industry-us-vivendi-bollore-idINBRE83J0BF20120420 He has an activist history in France. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Bollor%C3%A9

 

Seems like a lot of bad news is already in the price.

 

Poor history of capital allocation is concerning... Seems like empire building.

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* Universal Music’s November purchase of EMI Group’s recorded music unit for $1.9B is being investigated by the U.S. and the European Union

Big article on this in Deal Magazine. The bottom line was that they expect that UMG/VIV will have to sell off valuable pieces at a lower multiple than what they pay for EMI to satisfy antitrust. There was also a nasty fee in case they don't get approval. I have it at my desk, will see if I can get a scan of it tomorrow. Deal sounded like it would fit in neatly with VIV's checkered M&A history.

 

Having that said I think VIV is pretty interesting and a breakup/spin/special dividend could unlock a lot of value.

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Seems like a lot of bad news is already in the price.

 

Poor history of capital allocation is concerning... Seems like empire building.

 

What may at first appear to be empire building is really just simplifying their conglomerate structure. Vivendi had a lot of minority or partial stakes in their underlying subsidiaries, which made it difficult to free up cash for dividends/corporate purposes. It's why they moved forward on the 44% SFR consolidation & have tried repeatedly to buy up the remaining 20% of Canal+ France (to no avail because of lagardere asking for too high a price)

 

Anyway, I really like Vivendi and don't see much downside from present prices. Is one of my largest positions

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Hollande wins.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32494270-9789-11e1-9b05-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1u7Uavvyi

 

Mr Hollande campaigned on promises of higher taxes on business and top earners, subsidies for companies taking on younger and older workers, a partial reversal of the rise in the retirement age to 62, and a balanced budget by 2017.

 

The socialist has also urged Europe to do more to promote growth alongside its austerity drive. He has vowed not to ratify the EU’s new fiscal discipline treaty unless new growth-promoting measures are added, putting him on a potential collision course with Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. Mr Hollande was due to speak to Ms Merkel within hours of the polls closing.

 

Striking a deal with Berlin over the new treaty will be one of many challenges in a tough first six weeks for the president-elect.

 

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oddballstocks,

 

Are you aware of any delay in dividend distribution for unsponsored ADR shares? I did buy some adr shares in retirement A/C, haven't received any dividends on it yet. Vivendi div distribution supposed to be on May 9th.

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oddballstocks,

 

Are you aware of any delay in dividend distribution for unsponsored ADR shares? I did buy some adr shares in retirement A/C, haven't received any dividends on it yet. Vivendi div distribution supposed to be on May 9th.

 

I don't have Vivendi ADRs, but I do own a few ADRs, I've found there's usually a day or two delay.  Mostly because the company pays the sponsor, then the sponsor needs to pay the broker, who then pays you.  Some brokers pay right away, others hold it a day or two longer.  Fidelity usually is pretty good about paying, I know TD Ameritrade and E*Trade are infamous for holding foreign ADR dividends for a few extra days.  With interest rates at zero it's not like they're gaining anything anymore doing that.

 

I think Vanguard pays the day they get the money but it doesn't show up in the account until the next morning because of some goofy processing rule where balances are updated at midnight.

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Vivendi caught unaware by telecoms rival

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62ca2be0-822a-11e1-9242-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1ut9VVheY

 

While the new low-cost rival was no surprise to Mr Lévy, the aggression of Free’s pricing caught the French telecoms industry on the hop. Free is offering limited mobile phone services to customers of its fixed-line business at no charge.

 

French regulators estimate that Free has won at least 2m customers from rivals, including France Telecom and Bouygues. Its launch led to a profit warning and slashed dividend at Vivendi.

 

Mr Lévy is furious about a deal whereby Free is paying to use France Telecom’s network, which he believes has let the upstart offer prices that should be unsustainable.

 

That deal has provided France Telecom, the leading French telephone company on all measures, with a hedge against Free’s impact which some analysts estimate could be worth €2bn over six years. France Telecom shares have fallen about 10 per cent since Free’s January launch, compared with 20 per cent at Vivendi.

 

Vivendi plans ‘drastic’ cost cuts at SFR

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6a64d86-9dea-11e1-9456-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1ut9spbvD

 

The company’s future strategy is due to be discussed at a meeting of executives on the French island of Corsica next month. Speculation about a potential change increased after Vincent Bolloré, the French investor, recently emerged as a Vivendi shareholder. Mr Capron said on Monday night: “Mr Bolloré has not made any specific declarations to the board, though he has made some public statements supporting the management.

...

 

The finance director also said he believed that an ultra-low cost rival in its French mobile phone business, Free Mobile, had “lost steam on the market” though its early impact on French mobile phone prices was still considerable.

 

Free, which is owned by Iliad, a company controlled by French billionaire Xavier Niel, has lured customers away from Vivendi and other large telecoms groups by slashing prices.

 

Vivendi said it had lost 274,000 French mobile customers in the first three months of the year. It said on Monday that there would be “drastic and structural changes” at SFR and “significant cost-cutting programmes”.

 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fed9434e-c141-11e1-8179-00144feabdc0.html

 

Mr Lévy – seen as an opponent of a break-up – decided to quit on Thursday, seemingly leaving Jean-René Fourtou, the chairman regarded as more favourable to assets sales, in control. “What this tells you is that it’s Fourtou who really calls the shots and is in charge,” said one banker familiar with the group. “But that doesn’t mean to say that a full break-up will necessarily follow.”

 

The sudden departure of Mr Lévy now raises a large number of questions about the group’s future. These include whether sales or spin-offs are on the cards – as demanded by some shareholders – for Vivendi’s assets, which include Universal Music, Activision Blizzard, the gaming unit, Canal Plus, the pay-TV operator and telecoms operations in France, Morocco and Brazil.

 

Vivendi on Thursday said Mr Lévy had stepped down “following a divergence of views on the strategic development of the group”.

One person familiar with the company said: “There’s no chief executive and no succession plan so there probably isn’t a breakup plan either. It’s a mess.”

...

 

 

Mr Lévy’s departure appears to have been accelerated by the decision this week of a New York jury ordering Vivendi to pay damages of €765m to Liberty Media, John Malone’s US media holding company.

 

The case dates back to a $10.3bn TV network deal the two companies struck when the French group was run by Jean-Marie Messier a decade ago.

 

Having to put $1bn into escrow following the US Liberty judgment “would bring more attention to the group’s debt levels. The incremental drain in cash would alarm ratings agencies”, said Claudio Aspesi, analyst at Bernstein Research.

 

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e6f4f4a-c47f-11e1-a98c-00144feabdc0.html

 

Europe’s top antitrust watchdog has set out a sweeping list of objections to Universal Music’s £1.2bn bid for EMI’s record labels, putting pressure on the Vivendi subsidiary to offer large concessions to save the deal from being blocked.

 

According to people who have seen a “statement of objections” circulated by the European Commission, it argues that Universal, the world’s largest music company, already extracts materially higher prices from digital distributors than rivals, and that buying EMI would allow it to raise digital music prices.

 

The Commission disagreed with Universal’s assessment of its market share, which excludes music it distributes for independent record labels, these people said. It was similarly unmoved by its arguments over the countervailing power of Apple and the pressure on legitimate music sales from piracy.

...

 

Much is at stake for Vivendi, which has guaranteed to pay Citigroup, EMI’s current owner, £1.1bn of the purchase price by September, whether or not European and US regulators clear the deal. Any substantial disposals or concessions could damage its ability to extract savings and other benefits from the acquisition.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...

 

I own VIV ADR.    The sum of parts does seem to be much higher then the current valuation.  Yet at the same time they couldn't sell blizzard and not sure if the sales of the telecom pieces will go through.  What I do like is that the music business (through spotify, and concert etc) seems to finally find a way to get paid so it may not be a bad business afterall even with piracy. 

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  • 3 months later...

Vivendi urges patience over assets review.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c8f4c46-7fe4-11e2-af49-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2M9INLKNq

 

The group is exploring disposals of Maroc and GVT, a fast-growing Brazilian fixed-line telecoms business, but some bankers say this has been held up by political concerns in Morocco and trying to secure a reasonable price for GVT.

 

Commenting on the GVT process, Philippe Capron, Vivendi’s finance director, said: “It has not gone cold, but whether it goes through depends on an appropriate value. GVT is the main growth engine for Vivendi.”

 

He said the company had not received any “binding offers” for Maroc, despite interest from buyers such as Qatar’s Qtel and Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates.

 

Vivendi has also spoken to Numericable, a French cable group, about a possible combination with SFR. But Jean-François Dubos, chief executive, insisted that “SFR is not for sale”.

 

Vivendi wants to sell capital-intensive telecoms holdings to cut debt and regroup around its content assets, notably Universal Music – home to artists such as Justin Bieber, Rihanna, Nicki Minaj and Lana Del Rey.

 

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