VIV.PA - Vivendi (ADR: VIVHY)

[LowIQinvestor]

*DJ Viviendi Proposes to Pay EUR1 in 4Q 2015, EUR1 in 1Q 2016"

 

Last update: 08/04/2015 1:33:24 pm

 

Stock is going higher

[Jurgis]

Are Vivendi holders on this board holding it as a sum of the parts investment? It seems that earnings are pretty much from sales of pieces, so not really repeatable.

 

What is your future bull case? Bolore forcing more sales and monetization of assets? Or turning this into well operating business and extracting meaningful and higher FCF from assets?

[LowIQinvestor]

Bolloré Again Boosts Stake in Vivendi

Chairman had reached a truce with P. Schoenfeld Asset Management

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bollore-again-boosts-stake-in-vivendi-1428606859?mod=yahoo_hs

 

"PARIS—French billionaire Vincent Bolloré again boosted his stake in Vivendi SA, raising it to 14.52% a day after announcing a peace deal with a minority shareholder.

 

Mr. Bolloré, via his family-controlled conglomerate Groupe Bolloré, has acquired an additional 2.51% stake in the French media group for €800 million ($851 million), the company said in a statement Thursday."

[LowIQinvestor]

Earnings Out:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-12/vivendi-beats-profit-estimates-makes-offer-for-canal-plus-unit

 

http://www.vivendi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/20150512_VIV_Pres_Q1_2015_EN_FINAL.pdf

 

 

[LowIQinvestor]

Lots of deal-making in European telecom & media:

 

Sky Shares Up After Reports Of Takeover Interest From Both Vivendi And Vodafone:

http://deadline.com/2015/06/sky-vivendi-vodafone-rupert-murdoch-john-malone-vincent-bollore-1201451372/

 

Vivendi Becomes Telecom Italia's Largest Shareholder, Replacing Telefonica

 

 

Vivendi (Paris:VIV) today received 1.11 billion ordinary shares (or 8.24%) of Telecom Italia, the leading fixed and mobile telecommunications operator in Italy, in exchange for 4.5% of the share capital of Telefonica Brasil, in accordance with the option given to it as part of the sale of GVT to Telefonica, which closed on May 28, 2015.

 

Separately, the Group increased its ordinary shares in Telecom Italia from 1.90% recently purchased, with an additional stake of 4.76% purchased on June 22, up to 6.66%(1) , representing a global cash payment of approximately EUR1 billion.

 

Vivendi now owns 14.9% of Telecom Italia's ordinary shares and has thus replaced Telefonica as the company's largest shareholder.

 

Vivendi's capital investment in a major Italian company fits into the strategy developed by the Group, which gains a foothold in a country with which it shares the same Latin culture and roots.

 

This investment represents an opportunity for the Group to be present and to expand in a market with significant growth prospects and a very strong appetite for quality content.

 

Vivendi intends to support Telecom Italia over the long term.

 

 

[LowIQinvestor]

Music Boosts Vivendi's Revenue as Bollore Prepares TV Revamp:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-02/vivendi-second-quarter-sales-top-estimates-on-universal-music

 

http://www.vivendi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/20150902_PR_Vivendi_half_year_earnings_.pdf

[LowIQinvestor]

Vivendi & Telecom Italia stocks rallying in Paris.

 

DJ Telecom Italia Shareholders Reject Share Conversion Plan as Vivendi Abstains

 

MILAN--Shareholders in Italian telecommunications operator Telecom Italia SpA (TIT.MI) on Tuesday rejected a management plan to convert saving shares into ordinary stock, as French media company Vivendi--Telecom Italia's largest shareholder with a 20% stake--abstained in the vote.

 

The plan, under which all shareholders would have been diluted by about 30%, didn't receive the two-thirds of the vote it needed to pass. It was approved by only 62.5% of the shareholders who attended the meeting, while 36% abstained and 1.5% voted against the plan.

 

Vivendi had already announced its intention to abstain ahead of the vote, saying it believed the cash payment for savings shareholders under the plan was insufficient.

[LowIQinvestor]

Surprised Bollore's victory with Telecom Italia hasn't been reflected in VIVHY. Oh well...

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2015-12-16/bollore-brings-chaos-to-telecom-italia-but-also-promises-rewards

[LowIQinvestor]

More cash available for acquisitions!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/vivendi-sells-activision-blizzard-shares-netting-1-1-billion

 

Bollore SA is also starting to get attractive- Nearing book value

[ebdem]

I just took a closer look at Vivendi. The cash, equity and investemens seem at the moment to be around 8 € per stock (3,50 € in cash), so the rest counts for 9,30 €.

In my eyes, Universal Music Group and Canal+ seem to be slightly undervalued (around 10%) based on a conservative value assumption. But I am not sure, if my estimates are right. I am still working on them.

 

Canal+`s margins are depressed. There seems to be a chance to take them from 8% to the historical level of 12% and even to grow the business - especially in the french speaking countries in Africa. But this is a challeging task with opponents like Netfilx.

 

Universal Music is an interesting play on the growth of stream. Every spotify payment (9,99 € a month) produces a revenue of around 2,50 € for Universal. The growth in this segment - driven by spotify and Apple Play - is huge (around 60% atm). If this continues - and the chance is great, cause the music industry can also gain new, worldwide markets for streaming (whereas CD and others were mainly sold in the western hemisphere) - it might a have big effect on Universal Music`s earnings. The margin of every streaming € is high.

 

Also the amount of cash the company holds is interesting for a combination of buybacks/dividends and acquistions. 

[LowIQinvestor]

I just took a closer look at Vivendi. The cash, equity and investemens seem at the moment to be around 8 € per stock (3,50 € in cash), so the rest counts for 9,30 €.

In my eyes, Universal Music Group and Canal+ seem to be slightly undervalued (around 10%) based on a conservative value assumption. But I am not sure, if my estimates are right. I am still working on them.

 

Canal+`s margins are depressed. There seems to be a chance to take them from 8% to the historical level of 12% and even to grow the business - especially in the french speaking countries in Africa. But this is a challeging task with opponents like Netfilx.

 

Universal Music is an interesting play on the growth of stream. Every spotify payment (9,99 € a month) produces a revenue of around 2,50 € for Universal. The growth in this segment - driven by spotify and Apple Play - is huge (around 60% atm). If this continues - and the chance is great, cause the music industry can also gain new, worldwide markets for streaming (whereas CD and others were mainly sold in the western hemisphere) - it might a have big effect on Universal Music`s earnings. The margin of every streaming € is high.

 

Also the amount of cash the company holds is interesting for a combination of buybacks/dividends and acquistions. 

 

I have nothing to add,

except:

STREAMING IS PAYING UNIVERSAL $4M A DAY – BUT ITUNES INCOME IS CRASHING

http://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/streaming-is-paying-universal-4m-a-day-but-itunes-income-is-crashing/

 

Vivendi does not need big acquisitions - Bollore tells FT

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-vivendi-bollore-m-a-idUKKCN0YP0I0

[ebdem]

It's normal, that download and also physical sales are decreasing. Streaming is eating their share and there`s a effect, that could also be seen in Microsofts`s business. They changed from one time selling to subscriptions, which in the beginning is affecting their earnings negativly, but other time is a plus.

 

Credit Suisse, which made a good study on music streaming, estimated, that the take off from streaming is in 2016:

http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160603/ypc5khhd.png

Source: https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&source=emfromsendlink&format=PDF&document_id=1034433411&extdocid=1034433411_1_eng_pdf&serialid=rCeIEeju3oNvDylSkTNwYGpdkOJ7v5%2fct%2bvLYy%2fPciY%3d

Based on the numbers of Vivendi (compare especially Q1 2013 - 2016`s operation income and margin) I see a proof for this estimation.

http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160603/zs9mbuq8.png

 

The great Link of LowIQinvestor seems to proof this, too.

[LowIQinvestor]

Vivendi ( VIVHY) seems to be close to Book Value now!?

 

Vivendi: Bolloré’s master plan:

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4866724-28a0-11e6-8b18-91555f2f4fde.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz4Aogu1IXl

[ebdem]

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160617005691/en/Vivendi-Capital-Reduction-Cancellation-Shares

 

The Management Board decided to cancel 86,874,701 treasury shares, representing 6.35% of the total shares outstanding.

[LowIQinvestor]

I hope Bollore is buying back at today's price!

 

VIVHY

 

"In 2017, revenues should increase by more than 5% and, thanks to the measures

taken in 2016, EBITA should increase by around 25%"

 

[LowIQinvestor]

VIVHY still a buy:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/vivendi-results/rpt-update-1-vivendi-considers-selling-half-its-umg-music-jewel-idUSL5N1UQ65Q

[LowIQinvestor]

We think 50% of UMG will be sold very soon to a large tech co.

 

Don't think the market has yet to appreciate the value of UMG within VIVHY.

 

Spotify is currently worth $33B!

 

We will soon know what UMG is valued at.

[LowIQinvestor]

UMG sale happening 1st half 2019.

I hope/think that Liberty ( John Malone ) buys 50%. Good strategic partner given LiveNation, Sirius XM & Pandora.

 

Still very bullish on VIVHY especially now with an upcoming catalyst to unlock UMG value.

 

Vivendi breakup?

https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/vincent-bollore-will-break-up-vivendi/

[LowIQinvestor]

share buyback program for 5% of the share capital at a maximum price of €25 per share

https://www.vivendi.com/en/investment-analysts/press-releases/vivendi-supervisory-board-update/

[LowIQinvestor]

"Vivendi, a media behemoth in which Bolloré sa owns a 26% stake worth around €8bn, has been a mixed bag. Mr Bolloré took control of the group in 2014, fulfilling a long-rumoured ambition to become a media baron. Universal Music Group, which is wholly owned by Vivendi but run at arm’s length from California, has prospered as streaming revenues from Lady Gaga, u2 and its other stars have soared. Its value is thought to have swelled from $8bn in 2014 to $30bn—more or less Vivendi’s market capitalisation."

 

Assessing Vincent Bolloré

Untangling a French tycoon’s complicated legacy

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/assessing-vincent-bollore

[LowIQinvestor]

LONG Beiber !?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/vivendi-sales-gain-as-justin-bieber-helps-offset-hit-to-ad-unit

[fareastwarriors]

Vivendi plans to distribute 60% of UMG capital to shareholders, list it by year-end

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vivendi-universal-listing/vivendi-plans-to-distribute-60-of-umg-capital-to-shareholders-list-it-by-year-end-idUSKBN2AD0BC

[bizaro86]

If Taylor Swift re-recording her material with masters she owns becomes a trend, it seems like that could be bad for the music companies?

[ValuePadawan]

If Taylor Swift re-recording her material with masters she owns becomes a trend, it seems like that could be bad for the music companies?

 

If artists do that and own their content they will still have to negotiate with streaming platforms and it will be like ants trying to negotiate with elephants. Right now they in effect collectively bargain through 3 artist unions that we call labels: UMG, WMG and Sony. Sure the labels take a large percentage of the economic pie but if artists break up the labels they will be poorer for it as their leverage will be atomized and the streaming platforms will gobble them up one by one. It's not in artists interests to break up the labels.

[dbm]

Vivendi plans to distribute 60% of UMG capital to shareholders, list it by year-end

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vivendi-universal-listing/vivendi-plans-to-distribute-60-of-umg-capital-to-shareholders-list-it-by-year-end-idUSKBN2AD0BC

 

It is turning out far more shareholder-friendly than feared.

 

I was expecting - at best - an IPO with Vivendi retaining 50%+ of shares. I was definitely not expecting VB to relinquish formal control.

After the distribution Bolloré will have something like 24% of votes.

 

After adjusting the # of shares for the cross-shareholding, at a €30bn valuation of UMG, Bolloré's stake will be worth north of €5/share (vs a market price of €3.60/share), and Odet's indirect stake will be worth more than €1400/share (vs a market price of €800/share). Sure, there is debt, holding discount, etc... but the remaining assets should at least have a positive value.

 

Besides, if such a move respects minority shareholders downstream, maybe the fear of being significantly ripped off upstream (as Odet shareholder) is overemphasized.