Hussman

[bmichaud]

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120430.htm

 

His table pounding is getting louder by the week. Hopefully his projections don't become a reality....

[KinAlberta]

Three plus years on, Hussman continues his table pounding.  (For many, many years now I've tried not to miss a weekly edition. I figure there's great lessons to be learned here for fund managers, investors, EMH believers alike regarding market forecasting and timing - and the disasterous results that hedging can heap on one.  :-)  )

 

 

Anyway... his latest commentary is interesting. It also highlights the time scales involved with any macro analysis.

 

September 28, 2015

Valuations Not Only Mean-Revert; They Mean-Invert

 

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150928.htm

[Eye4Valu]

Like a broken clock twice a day, eventually he'll be right. Of course, the majority of his investors will probably have left him by then. I think he has good points, but I wish he'd stop talking about his mistake of incorporating depression era data in his stress testing. John, you were being cautious as a good investor should be. Time to get over it. Yes you missed the rally, but you'll be able to hit a home run or two when the market crashes. You and your two remaining investors will be rich.

[racemize]

We used to talk about this guy a lot.  I thought I'd check in:

 

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/annrep16.pdf

 

Underperforming since inception.  Look at the chart where his hedging and macro has absolutely murdered him.

[eclecticvalue]

Like a broken clock twice a day, eventually he'll be right. Of course, the majority of his investors will probably have left him by then. I think he has good points, but I wish he'd stop talking about his mistake of incorporating depression era data in his stress testing. John, you were being cautious as a good investor should be. Time to get over it. Yes you missed the rally, but you'll be able to hit a home run or two when the market crashes. You and your two remaining investors will be rich.

 

Then the cycle begins where new investors pile in.

[Guest wellmont]

this is an example of a guy who would be better off if he wasn't so damn smart.  ::)

[writser]

this is an example of a guy who would be better off if he wasn't so damn smart.  ::)

 

That's the generous view .. I'd say he is doing very well - only the clients who were lured into his bullshit funds aren't.

[oddballstocks]

Is this another guru that just needs a few more years before they have Buffett-like returns?

 

+100 to what writser wrote, Hussman himself is doing well but his investors have never done well.

 

This guy proves the point that performance doesn't matter, it's the story that you tell that matters.

[stahleyp]

It's been a while since I looked but I believe his stock picking with no hedging has beaten the market since inception by a couple points annually.

[Jurgis]

It's been a while since I looked but I believe his stock picking with no hedging has beaten the market since inception by a couple points annually.

 

He should have offered unhedged version of the fund and raked in money.  8)

 

am I good or what

[rkbabang]

It's been a while since I looked but I believe his stock picking with no hedging has beaten the market since inception by a couple points annually.

 

I guess that is an interesting piece of information to use as a thought experiment, but unfortunately he didn't purchase those stocks without hedging.

[racemize]

It's been a while since I looked but I believe his stock picking with no hedging has beaten the market since inception by a couple points annually.

 

He shows it as one of the lines in the graph, and he did outperform.  He just got in the way of his own outperformance...

[stylized_fact]

This guy proves the point that performance doesn't matter, it's the story that you tell that matters.

 

I guess this is one way to financial success as a writer.

[Jurgis]

It's been a while since I looked but I believe his stock picking with no hedging has beaten the market since inception by a couple points annually.

 

I guess that is an interesting piece of information to use as a thought experiment, but unfortunately he didn't purchase those stocks without hedging.

 

Yes, this is good observation. It's easy to assume that results without hedging would be as in graph. That's not necessarily true. They could have been quite different for a number of reasons (cash flows in/out of fund, mental inability of manager to buy/hold unhedged securities that he holds hedged, etc.).