alertmeipp Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WB is talking about making big acquisition, he should just take KMI/KMP if he can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Corp- Just a thought: Mr. Morgan purchased 6 mil in KMI recently. Owning over 8 bil of KMI and so little of KMP/KMR his bias is clear. So why isn't he purchasing the warrants? Could it be he doesn't see 42 by 2017 but does see higher than the current valuation? dividend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Common up today but WT down - anyone have any logical explanation? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Maybe it was over priced compare to the common as well as some of the longer term options. The volume was high, a few millions change hand in the last hour or so. Someone is running screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I just notice that the warrant was trading at 6+ bucks when the common was trading at 41 last May/June. Say if KMI climb back to 40 by year end, what do you guys see the warrant trading at? 4 bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The warrant price is OTM that means it consists mainly of time and volatility premium. Since volatility goes down and its delta is relative small its price goes down. The smaller the distance to the execution price gets, the warrants delta gets greater and it behaves more like the underlying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 $100MM additional common/warrant repurchase authorization. I believe they had a little over $90 million left in repurchase program as of analyst day presentation. https://www.bamsec.com/filing/150630714000014?cik=1506307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 New writeup on VIC: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114749 Can someone here who's a member summarize what the thesis is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 New writeup on VIC: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114749 Can someone here who's a member summarize what the thesis is? You need an account to be able to view that article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 New writeup on VIC: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114749 Can someone here who's a member summarize what the thesis is? You need an account to be able to view that article. Yes, I have a guest account so I will be able to see it in about a month and a half but members can already see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 New writeup on VIC: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114749 Can someone here who's a member summarize what the thesis is? You need an account to be able to view that article. Yes, I have a guest account so I will be able to see it in about a month and a half but members can already see it. Does anyone know what's up with the price weakness since January? I have been looking into this one recently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yader Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 See page 7 "marketplace weakness." Also tanker revenues/replacement. El Paso troubles. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I am thinking of buying leaps. To be honest I dont see great deep value here. Similar to PWE this is a giant liquid name on the radar of a lot of people. Its going to trade up to $40 within the next 2 years at some point. Leaps cost nothing because of the yield. If it gets to $40 for even a day and you sell you make 2x-3x your money. The warrants require $45 in the next 3.5 years. I prefer the leap bet, what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I am thinking of buying leaps. To be honest I dont see great deep value here. Similar to PWE this is a giant liquid name on the radar of a lot of people. Its going to trade up to $40 within the next 2 years at some point. Leaps cost nothing because of the yield. If it gets to $40 for even a day and you sell you make 2x-3x your money. The warrants require $45 in the next 3.5 years. I prefer the leap bet, what do you guys think? This is exactly why I bought the 2016 $30 Calls, first at $5 and second at $3.8. My experience is that the large cap names tend to be less mis-priced and they swing back to a fair value rather quickly. Thus, LEAP is a good tool to leverage the reversal of this minor mis-pricing. In my mind, $40 by LEAP expiry is not a stretch goal as it implies only a 2016 yield of 5% assuming 8% annual dividend growth forecasted by the company. The company has a long history of over-delivering its promise -- there's a slide in its presentations showing forecasted < actual KMP dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I like what I see so far, quick question for everyone. Why is EPB a seperate vehicle. Seems like it just complicates things. It would make sense if all pipelines were held by one MLP and all other assets the other, but EPB seems like a smaller weaker version of KMR. Why was it split out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc Perhaps they know more than we or Mr. Kinder. (I doubt it) KMI is where Kinder has his money, so this should be the safest bet. A very good writeup by a forum member (Thx by the way for the work!) : http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/kinder-morgan-inc-kmi-you-sell-ill-buy/ I see the fair value of KMI at 15xFCF (it traded there already one year ago). Currently its at 8.1xFCF. I calculate my forward rate of return with PE/FCF revaluation over 5 years+dividend+dividend growth or PE/FCF revaluation+FCF yield+FCF growth. That comes out at roughly 17%+5%+8% = 30% pa. Technically it has bounced thursday at a huge support around 30-31$ and finished an ABC-Elliottwave pattern. On friday it approved the pattern and broke the last downtrend. Fundamentals+technicals+Insider buying was my reasoning to take a greater position than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Frommi I Agree :D Just giving some light and different opinions that's out there plus morning star are not super bad at stock picks :D Its just that at the moment I might sell bac and buy this its just I have not made that decisions yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc Perhaps they know more than we or Mr. Kinder. (I doubt it) KMI is where Kinder has his money, so this should be the safest bet. A very good writeup by a forum member (Thx by the way for the work!) : http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/kinder-morgan-inc-kmi-you-sell-ill-buy/ I see the fair value of KMI at 15xFCF (it traded there already one year ago). Currently its at 8.1xFCF. I calculate my forward rate of return with PE/FCF revaluation over 5 years+dividend+dividend growth or PE/FCF revaluation+FCF yield+FCF growth. That comes out at roughly 17%+5%+8% = 30% pa. Technically it has bounced thursday at a huge support around 30-31$ and finished an ABC-Elliottwave pattern. On friday it approved the pattern and broke the last downtrend. Fundamentals+technicals+Insider buying was my reasoning to take a greater position than normal. I finally broke down and sold some SD to buy some KMI. This pretty much guarantees that SD should soar and KMI drop even further. Your welcome ;D cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prevalou Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How do you get kmi at 8,1 free cash flow ? 2014 FCF seems to be $ 1,72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yader Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Prevalou, Looks like you simply missed an 'x'. It's currently at 8.1x (times) FCF. Not saying they've got $8.10 of FCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 if FCF is $1.72 , it's not 8.1x FCF, right ? sounds like > 15x FCF Prevalou, Looks like you simply missed an 'x'. It's currently at 8.1x (times) FCF. Not saying they've got $8.10 of FCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 1.72$ is the dividend not the free cash flow. http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/KMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prevalou Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 In the KMI case, dividend=free cash flow. Look at the 10 K. It is more reliable than Gurufocus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dividend = distributable cash flow as defined by the company. In my opinion, distributable cash flow slightly overstates real earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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