Myth465 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I believe Value is correct. In my rushed DD, I did note KMI has a pretty sizable E&P business which generates great returns. Refer to Page 11 - Only 30% of the CO2 division is related to the low margin transport business. This amounts to 7% of KMP CF. The CO2 oil production accounts for 17% of cash flow for KMI, and 70% of the CO2 division. The division also has ROIC of 26%, about double the other businesses. I am guessing the 30% does 12-14% ROIC, and the 70% does 30% plus ROIC. This is with what looks like some pretty crappy forward hedges. Half of the expansion capital of $1 billion will go towards EOR. http://www.kindermorgan.com/investor/presentations/0312_JPM.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I believe this announcement here may be incremental. http://seekingalpha.com/pr/9374983-kinder-morgan-to-invest-approximately-1-billion-to-expand-vast-co2-network So perhaps its $2 billion with $1.3 going to wells, and the balance going to pipelines. Though I am not sure. Either way, the more they put into 30% ROIC projects, the more we make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 To be fair, KMI calculates its returns on capital in a wonky fashion. It's described in the appendix presentation. They add back D&A and subtract sustaining capex. A pipeline will see solid cash flows for maybe 60+ years. An oil well will see declining cash flows over maybe 15-40 years. (For EOR wells it could be less?) Kinder Morgan's metric doesn't seem to be great for comparing the two types of assets. A 10% return on a pipeline is much better than a 10% return on an oil well. An oil well returning 10% one year will eventually return 9%, 8%, 7% etc. in future years. I think a better metric would be the IRR (internal rate of return) figure given in the presentation for the CO2 segment. It puts the total business IRR at 29.2%. See slide 35 at http://www.kindermorgan.com/investor/presentations/2014_Analysts_Conf_06_CO2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 KMP-CO2 is pretty slim on the E of the E&P equation. They buy long-discovered fields from the majors and work them over with CO2 flooding. Semantics I guess. Thanks Myth for finding that slide that splits out the oil/gas EOR side from the CO2 sales, marketing, transport side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I missed most of the CC but just tuned in to hear that $55MM of the new ($100MM) authorization during the quarter went to repurchase warrants. The final $94MM of the prior authorization went to common early in the Q (prior to the analyst day, I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 An oil well will see declining cash flows over maybe 15-40 years. (For EOR wells it could be less?) In my experience, wells converted to EOR have lower declines than new drills. They are especially much better than new wells in tight rock/shale. KM's style of E&P is actually the only type I think can be reasonably held in an MLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sys Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 I missed most of the CC but just tuned in to hear that $55MM of the new ($100MM) authorization during the quarter went to repurchase warrants. The final $94MM of the prior authorization went to common early in the Q (prior to the analyst day, I believe). interesting. 317 million warrants remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 New post from Value about the warrants http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/04/26/kmi-mispriced-long-term-options/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sys Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 thank you, that was very useful to read. i don't think it is valid to ignore the dividends. i don't know anything about option pricing, but it seems to me the easiest adjustment would be to add the expected dividends to the strike price. using the calculator you linked, and the assumptions for your conservative valuation, if i adjust the strike up by $5 for expected dividends, i get a valuation of $3.14 instead of $4.81. still attractive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 1- The following webpage explains dividends and options: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/121003.asp "Dividends, Interest Rates And Their Effect On Stock Options" 2- Something else that would affect the value of an option would be future changes in the dividend rate. If for some reason the company dramatically changes its dividend payout, the value of the options will be affected. If the company is doing badly, it may or may not decide to cut its dividends. Some companies will continue to pay a dividend even if they are distressed. Companies that do well often increase their dividends. Some companies go from no dividend to issuing a dividend, so that is probably the area where dividend changes might matter the most. With Kinder Morgan, you can simplify things by assuming that the dividends will be proportional to the share price. Dividends going down help the warrants in theory, though the share price will likely go down if dividends go down and the $40 strike price likely won't be reached. Dividends going up hurt the warrants, though the terms of the warrants will mostly protect you if dividends go up by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315027/000158474614000021/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 He took down two tranches eh? Warrants have been acting lively since that horrendously bad article on seeking alpha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 The leaps are up 50% in a few months. Wise I bought more.... ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The leaps are up 50% in a few months. Wise I bought more.... ::) Yeah, don't jinx us. haha. My warrants are up a similar amount. I was planning to buy more if they dropped below the average price they were repurchased last quarter but that's a whole different zip code now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 2nd Quarter results: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=93621&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1948155&highlight= repurchased 19M warrants this quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 They didn't get any of mine back. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Should I be getting excited as a KMI call holder about this dialogue during the Q2 CC? Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division My first question is actually for Rich. And as you might imagine, if you read our note this morning, it's kind of a follow-up on that. You guys are now sitting at a point where you've done billions of dollars of accretive deals over the last few years, and yet KMI remains at a discount to peers that I would imagine is pretty frustrating from your perspective. So as you sit and kind of look at where you're trading versus some of your peer companies right now, do you have any thoughts on that current discount, and whether or not you'd be willing to consider a transaction to reduce Kinder Morgan's cost of capital? Richard D. Kinder - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Let me just say that we're always exploring operational and strategic opportunities to enhance the value for our investors, including myself. And that includes, among other things, evaluating potential combinations of Kinder Morgan companies. But as I've stated in the past, any such transaction or combination would have to be on terms negotiated between the companies and mutually agreed upon. Bradley Olsen - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division And that would involve just kind of the standard conflict committee process that these arm-length transactions go through? Richard D. Kinder - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer That's correct. I would think if there's any combinations between KMI/KMP/EPB, the price of KMI would go up substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounder Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 I would think if there's any combinations between KMI/KMP/EPB, the price of KMI would go up substantially. Why would the price of KMI go up? Aren't they as GP already in an advantageous position compared to the LPs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 I would think if there's any combinations between KMI/KMP/EPB, the price of KMI would go up substantially. Why would the price of KMI go up? Aren't they as GP already in an advantageous position compared to the LPs? This is exactly why kmi deserves a premium on any combination. Say if kmi and kmp combine and form one entity, kmi which was in a superior position deserves to be compensated for giving up those rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounder Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 I would think if there's any combinations between KMI/KMP/EPB, the price of KMI would go up substantially. Why would the price of KMI go up? Aren't they as GP already in an advantageous position compared to the LPs? This is exactly why kmi deserves a premium on any combination. Say if kmi and kmp combine and form one entity, kmi which was in a superior position deserves to be compensated for giving up those rights. Got it, thanks. So it would be a one time revaluation up for the buyout of the management rights, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-energy-partners-announces-140000808.html Pretty sure this is a huge new project that wasn't included in the backlog based on a quick re-review of the last quarter transcripts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-energy-partners-announces-140000808.html Pretty sure this is a huge new project that wasn't included in the backlog based on a quick re-review of the last quarter transcripts. Definitely a project in huge demand. Chesapeake for example suffers a heavy $2.47 discount relative to Henrys Hub last quarter for its gas in the Marcellus North region due to lack of transportation capacity. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2357935-chesapeake-energy-commodity-price-differentials-surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-energy-partners-announces-140000808.html Pretty sure this is a huge new project that wasn't included in the backlog based on a quick re-review of the last quarter transcripts. I notice one of the companies mentioned is Berkshire Gas company. Is that part of mid-american? Thanks for posting this..... cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-energy-partners-announces-140000808.html Pretty sure this is a huge new project that wasn't included in the backlog based on a quick re-review of the last quarter transcripts. I notice one of the companies mentioned is Berkshire Gas company. Is that part of mid-american? Thanks for posting this..... cheers Zorro Doesn't look like it: http://www.berkshiregas.com/wps/portal/bgc/home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-energy-partners-announces-140000808.html Pretty sure this is a huge new project that wasn't included in the backlog based on a quick re-review of the last quarter transcripts. I notice one of the companies mentioned is Berkshire Gas company. Is that part of mid-american? Thanks for posting this..... cheers Zorro Doesn't look like it: http://www.berkshiregas.com/wps/portal/bgc/home thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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