HLF - Herbalife

[Spekulatius]

Wow - hilarious: http://www.wsj.com/articles/carl-icahn-mulled-selling-herbalife-stake-to-group-that-included-bill-ackman-1472198581

 

I think this begins the slow slide downward for the company. My short working out phenomenally.

 

I don't like this company either, but shorting it does not seem like a good idea. Ackman is going to lose this one, I think.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-27/icahn-mocks-ackman-s-obsession-after-raising-herbalife-stake

[TonyG]

Just curious, why do you think Ackman is going to lose this one? The FTC agreed with him on nearly everything but the word pyramid scheme.

[Mephistopheles]

I don't think Ackman would flat out lie about the Jeffries thing. I think he's smart enough to realize it can come bite him in the ass.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Over the years many investment bankers, including Jefferies, that specialize in block trades frequently make bids for our large positions. But completely contrary to what Bill Ackman stated on television today, I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares. Last month we publicly disclosed that Herbalife granted us permission to go up to 35%. At the time of the disclosure, Ackman declared that I have no interest in increasing my position in Herbalife. This was obviously another misstatement of the facts by Ackman since today I bought another 2.3 million shares. I continue to believe in Herbalife:  it’s a great model that creates a great number of jobs for people. Ackman may be a smart guy but he has clearly succumbed to the same dangerous (and sometimes fatal) malady that afflicts many investors – he’s developed a very bad case of “Herbalife obsession”. Obsessions concerning the value of stocks are the undoing of many investors because they often blind you to the facts, and it becomes impossible to see the forest for the trees. Watching Ackman on television today is a perfect example of this “obsession”.  A month ago he declared that I’d never buy more Herbalife stock, which obviously turned out to be completely wrong. Today, he said I’m done with my Herbalife investment and that I’m a seller. Obviously wrong, again. It amazes me that a guy who hasn’t any knowledge of my internal investment thinking believes he is in a position to go on television to tell the world what I AM thinking! Amazing! He has no right to do so, and even worse, I’m sure his unsubstantiated, obsessive comments, especially about Herbalife, have cost investors a great deal of money over the last few years.

Statement from Icahn.

 

If what Icahn said is true, then surely Ackman deserves an SEC investigation over his behaviour.

[Spekulatius]

Over the years many investment bankers, including Jefferies, that specialize in block trades frequently make bids for our large positions. But completely contrary to what Bill Ackman stated on television today, I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares. Last month we publicly disclosed that Herbalife granted us permission to go up to 35%. At the time of the disclosure, Ackman declared that I have no interest in increasing my position in Herbalife. This was obviously another misstatement of the facts by Ackman since today I bought another 2.3 million shares. I continue to believe in Herbalife:  it’s a great model that creates a great number of jobs for people. Ackman may be a smart guy but he has clearly succumbed to the same dangerous (and sometimes fatal) malady that afflicts many investors – he’s developed a very bad case of “Herbalife obsession”. Obsessions concerning the value of stocks are the undoing of many investors because they often blind you to the facts, and it becomes impossible to see the forest for the trees. Watching Ackman on television today is a perfect example of this “obsession”.  A month ago he declared that I’d never buy more Herbalife stock, which obviously turned out to be completely wrong. Today, he said I’m done with my Herbalife investment and that I’m a seller. Obviously wrong, again. It amazes me that a guy who hasn’t any knowledge of my internal investment thinking believes he is in a position to go on television to tell the world what I AM thinking! Amazing! He has no right to do so, and even worse, I’m sure his unsubstantiated, obsessive comments, especially about Herbalife, have cost investors a great deal of money over the last few years.

Statement from Icahn.

 

If what Icahn said is true, then surely Ackman deserves an SEC investigation over his behaviour.

 

I would think that if Jeffries indeed want to do a block trade for a huge amount of shares, they would not be allowed to name the owner of said shares. I doubt this works the way Ackman describes it anyways.

[Picasso]

Also interesting that he said Stiritz sold out, which was not the case either.

 

Everytime I've said something to the tune of Ackman being wrong on HLF, someone yells back "Go read Confidence Game!" If you followed all of Ackman's HLF statements since his 2012 pitch, the vast majority were simply false or ended up being wrong. Even if he makes money on HLF, I don't think it will be due to his initial thesis. Same thing with MBIA, so here is someone elses chance to yell that book title at me.

[ratiman]

At the time Ackman gave his big presentation on Herbalife, I was following a similar kind of pyramid scheme, Visalus (stock was BTH). Exact same business except the product and marketing and management were inferior to Herbalife, so I knew that Herbalife was a well-run company with legitimate demand for the product (the product being a social approach to losing weight). I also listened to one of the weekly calls for distributors. It was wild, the lady appeared to be on speed or coke and there was absolutely no discussion of the product at all, it was all about downlines and getting rich and ditching your crappy job (she said she had worked at Applebees before becoming fabulously successful). Has anybody listened to an HLF distributor call?

[Foreign Tuffett]

Over the years many investment bankers, including Jefferies, that specialize in block trades frequently make bids for our large positions. But completely contrary to what Bill Ackman stated on television today, I have never given Jefferies an order to sell any of our Herbalife shares. Last month we publicly disclosed that Herbalife granted us permission to go up to 35%. At the time of the disclosure, Ackman declared that I have no interest in increasing my position in Herbalife. This was obviously another misstatement of the facts by Ackman since today I bought another 2.3 million shares. I continue to believe in Herbalife:  it’s a great model that creates a great number of jobs for people. Ackman may be a smart guy but he has clearly succumbed to the same dangerous (and sometimes fatal) malady that afflicts many investors – he’s developed a very bad case of “Herbalife obsession”. Obsessions concerning the value of stocks are the undoing of many investors because they often blind you to the facts, and it becomes impossible to see the forest for the trees. Watching Ackman on television today is a perfect example of this “obsession”.  A month ago he declared that I’d never buy more Herbalife stock, which obviously turned out to be completely wrong. Today, he said I’m done with my Herbalife investment and that I’m a seller. Obviously wrong, again. It amazes me that a guy who hasn’t any knowledge of my internal investment thinking believes he is in a position to go on television to tell the world what I AM thinking! Amazing! He has no right to do so, and even worse, I’m sure his unsubstantiated, obsessive comments, especially about Herbalife, have cost investors a great deal of money over the last few years.

Statement from Icahn.

 

If what Icahn said is true, then surely Ackman deserves an SEC investigation over his behaviour.

 

I would think that if Jeffries indeed want to do a block trade for a huge amount of shares, they would not be allowed to name the owner of said shares. I doubt this works the way Ackman describes it anyways.

 

I would second this opinion. Icahn has been a client of Jefferies for many years, and he and Rich Handler are friends. I would think Jefferies would go out of its way to protect Icahn and his interests. Calling Ackman about the block trade and mentioning Icahn would seem contra to Icahn's interests?

 

More broadly, Ackman is already embroiled in a lawsuit over the AGN-VRX merger trade in 2014. Why does he feel compelled to go on CNBC every few weeks to rumor monger and pump his positions?

[walt373]

Why does he feel compelled to go on CNBC every few weeks to rumor monger and pump his positions?

 

I believe the over-the-top promotion is part of Ackman's strategy with HLF. You don't see him pump his other positions to nearly the same degree. The reason being, when pyramid/ponzi schemes are revealed to the public for what they are, they run out of suckers and collapse. So the plan was to scare away distributors and potential new recruits to precipitate a collapse of HLF. That was Ackman's Plan B if the FTC failed to shut them down. Thus the website, lobbying, organized protests, death blow presentations, movie, CNBC appearances, etc. Herbalife is by far the most heavily scrutinized MLM and most people already think it's a pyramid scheme regardless of whether it's true or not. It must be much harder to recruit new members now than it was before, so it should make you wonder why it's still growing. I don't think it would be possible without a lot of demand coming from real repeat customers.

[Spekulatius]

Why does he feel compelled to go on CNBC every few weeks to rumor monger and pump his positions?

 

I believe the over-the-top promotion is part of Ackman's strategy with HLF. You don't see him pump his other positions to nearly the same degree. The reason being, when pyramid/ponzi schemes are revealed to the public for what they are, they run out of suckers and collapse. So the plan was to scare away distributors and potential new recruits to precipitate a collapse of HLF. That was Ackman's Plan B if the FTC failed to shut them down. Thus the website, lobbying, organized protests, death blow presentations, movie, CNBC appearances, etc. Herbalife is by far the most heavily scrutinized MLM and most people already think it's a pyramid scheme regardless of whether it's true or not. It must be much harder to recruit new members now than it was before, so it should make you wonder why it's still growing. I don't think it would be possible without a lot of demand coming from real repeat customers.

 

I don't think the clientele interested in becoming a Herbalife distributor and those that watch/follow Ackman have much overlap. So far, all the wind that he had been making, did nothing and the stock is almost a double since he started, which is an easy and tangible way to show these folks that Ackman is wrong (at least for less inquisitive people).

 

The fact, that he thinks that his 3 hour presentations  to other hedgies do make a difference to a potential customer of HLF alone shows the hubris and the bubble that Ackman has surrounded himself. I would be surprised if more than 10% of HLF customers watch CNBC and the percentage that even know about Ackman is far likely much lower.

[walt373]

Agreed the two groups have little overlap, but if you google "Herbalife scam", the first (non-paid) link is Ackman's page, and a few other links on page 1 are related. The more noise he makes, the more wary of joining the average person will be.

[siddharth18]

if you google "Herbalife scam", the first (non-paid) link is Ackman's page,

 

I love how Ackman's website has a tiny disclaimer in grey font on grey background that says "This site is maintained by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. By accessing the contents of this website, you confirm that you have read our full disclaimer." So they are assuming that you will not only notice this sentence in the tiny font on camouflaged background, but also click on the disclaimer and read it.

 

It's like they almost don't want you to notice it.

[Picasso]

Anyone remember this press release by Herbalife?  A+ trolling.

 

http://ir.herbalife.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=939519

 

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Global nutrition company Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) today issued the following statement regarding a presentation by Bill Ackman:

 

"I hope Bill Ackman has done more research on Valeant than he did on Herbalife, Target, Borders and JC Penny," said Alan Hoffman, executive vice president, global corporate affairs, Herbalife.

[CorpRaider]

I feel like someone needs to send a copy of Guy Spier's book to Mr. Ackman.

[Guest roark33]

Why, so he can invest in ZINCQ? 

[Jurgis]

Why, so he can invest in ZINCQ?

 

Ziiiiing!  ;D

[undervalued]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/08/icahn-shopped-herbalife-ltd-hlf/

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/herbalife-may-have-misled-investors-sec-on-impact-of-ftc-deal-one-short-seller-says.html

[arcube]

Was browsing Politico.com and the ad for below appeared! Courtesy Herbalife.

 

http://www.therealbillackman.com/

 

[Liberty]

John Oliver on MLMs and HLF:

[dcollon]

That's hilarious.  Thanks Liberty

[VersaillesinNY]

Awesome! Thanks for sharing.

[doughishere]

John Oliver on MLMs and HLF:

 

The John Oliver Short, put the short Herblife back on after that segment. John Oliver might be more successful than Ackman at getting the word out.

 

 

1,235,249 views on a channel with 4,273,499 subscribers....who needs activist just start a fund that uses trends in social media.

[RadMan24]

Icahn drank the herbalife kool aid. This sucker is going down. International growth will pad the numbers. But in the US, it blows up. Once that happens, game over.

 

My thesis and I'm sticking to it.

[fareastwarriors]

Thank you for posting this. It  was a great watch. I hope many people watch this segment.  I shared it on my FB.

 

If only the government is willing to do more to get rid of all these MLM companies...

[Mephistopheles]

 

If only the government is willing to do more to get rid of all these MLM companies...

 

Except Pampered Chef, right?