merkhet Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 IMO, pretty likely. http://www.mlmwatchdog.com/files/FTC_Letter.pdf The critical question for the FTC is whether the revenues that primarily support the commissions paid to all participants are generated from purchases of goods and services that are not simply incidental to the purchase of the right to participate in a money-making venture. The Commission's recent cases, however, demonstrate that the sale of goods and service; alone does not necessarily render a multi-level system legitimate. Modem pyramid schemes generally do not blatantly base commissions on the outright payment of fees, but instead try to disguise these payments to appear as if they are based on the sale of goods or services. The most common means employed to achieve this goal is to require a certain level of monthly purchases to qualify for commissions. While the sale of goods and services nominally generates commissions in a system primarily funded by such purchases, in fact, those commissions are funded by purchases made to obtain the right to participate in the scheme. Each individual who profits, therefore, does so primarily from the payments of others who are themselves making payments in order to obtain their own profit. As discussed above, such a plan is little more than a transfer scheme, dooming the vast majority of participants to financial failure. This is the crux of the Ackman presentation, which, again, was buried in three hours of rambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/bob-chapman-memo-to-herbalife-ltd-hlf-regulators/ Regardless of his message...I did learn some new words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Anyone tracking what is going on with HLF? Looks like Ackman is going to top off a good year if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Connecting the dots..... http://quoththeravensa.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/is-the-california-attorney-general-avoiding-investigating-herbalife-to-protect-her-husband/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Some more comments from Bill Ackman on Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ackman-herbalife-distributors-turning-state-s-evidence-RuYc6kQGQUKALqMbw_KtiQ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 This is looking pretty reasonable at these levels. Not sure how accurate the estimates are but I am still seeing $5-6 for next year versus a stock at $38. Anyone buying here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 This is looking pretty reasonable at these levels. Not sure how accurate the estimates are but I am still seeing $5-6 for next year versus a stock at $38. Anyone buying here? What strategy are you considering? Long the common + puts to hedge? Or long LEAPs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 IMO, pretty likely. I think this VIC piece from early 2013 is pretty convincing. What has materially changed since then? http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/HERBALIFE_LTD/95600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This is looking pretty reasonable at these levels. Not sure how accurate the estimates are but I am still seeing $5-6 for next year versus a stock at $38. Anyone buying here? Did you end up buying at 38? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 No, as I dug into it I realized there are substantial legal issues. It is just too complicated for me, too much of a bet on regulatory/legal outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I might buy it. Pyramid schemes are great for the owners of the scheme. There is some probability that HLF makes it through and if it does, it should reward shareholders. In a worst case scenario it doesn't really matter what price you pay for the stock. $30 or $15 will end up with similar results over a long time frame. It ends up at zero or it compounds high teens like most good pyramid schemes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not? Personally, I think I willl need another investor to join in. Right now you have Icahn and the Stiritz making big bets but Loeb pulled out. If I saw Loeb has re-entered the position then I willl take his DD as my own and buy in. Otherwise it is way above my analytic abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Sorry, no sarcasm. I think with HLF you need to call a spade a spade. It's a pyramid scheme and pyramid schemes make a lot of money. Look at USNA as one that has been very successful. HLF just happens to have a spotlight on it because of Ackman but there's plenty of other bad eggs out there. World Financial Group as part of AEGON stands out as being very hurtful to both the consumers and producers. I just think there is some probability that they can operate in the shady area of law that allows it to continue for a long time. This isn't a 100% slam dunk in either direction and if you get the probabilities close and size it right it seems investable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Sorry, no sarcasm. I think with HLF you need to call a spade a spade. It's a pyramid scheme and pyramid schemes make a lot of money. Look at USNA as one that has been very successful. HLF just happens to have a spotlight on it because of Ackman but there's plenty of other bad eggs out there. World Financial Group as part of AEGON stands out as being very hurtful to both the consumers and producers. I just think there is some probability that they can operate in the shady area of law that allows it to continue for a long time. This isn't a 100% slam dunk in either direction and if you get the probabilities close and size it right it seems investable. I think you have to stop at "it's a pyramid scheme." A pyramid scheme is not a wonderful business at a fair price. It's not even a wonderful business. Ackman is alleging that it's not even a business. I think for anyone to get the "probabilities" of this one close is just lying to himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Maybe I have less aversion to "unethical" businesses than others on this board. Then again the post under HLF is PM which happens to kill people, has no book value, and yet has provided one of the best risk adjusted returns over the past few decades. A lot of things in life are pyramid schemes. They just happen to be legal pyramid schemes. To say this is a fraud you have to connect the dot between multi-level marketing and a regulator saying it's operated illegally. It's no less of a binary outcome than FNMA in my books. Part of the reason I might buy the stock is the reaction from the stock versus bond market. The bonds are trading at the same price in the low to mid 70's for a 10% yield while the stock is yielding around 20% (using EPS). Also some of the recent decline is attributed to a blog using bad data from Alexa. Or maybe the FTC is shutting the company down and people who are "in the know" are shorting the rest of the available float. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Maybe I have less aversion to "unethical" businesses than others on this board. Then again the post under HLF is PM which happens to kill people, has no book value, and yet has provided one of the best risk adjusted returns over the past few decades. A lot of things in life are pyramid schemes. They just happen to be legal pyramid schemes. To say this is a fraud you have to connect the dot between multi-level marketing and a regulator saying it's operated illegally. It's no less of a binary outcome than FNMA in my books. Part of the reason I might buy the stock is the reaction from the stock versus bond market. The bonds are trading at the same price in the low to mid 70's for a 10% yield while the stock is yielding around 20% (using EPS). Also some of the recent decline is attributed to a blog using bad data from Alexa. Or maybe the FTC is shutting the company down and people who are "in the know" are shorting the rest of the available float. Cigarettes (eventually) kill people, but by now pretty much everybody knows that. Cigarette companies were a lot more problematic ethically back when they denied and suppressed the evidence for harm. HLF is kind of at that level. Pretending to be one thing while being another so they can take advantage (money, time, energy) from some of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society. Personally, I find it despicable and will celebrate when they finally go bankrupt. In any case, I don't find the argument that "yes, they're bad, but others are bad too" comforting. Should I act badly as a person because other people do bad things too? Where does that thinking lead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Maybe I have less aversion to "unethical" businesses than others on this board. Then again the post under HLF is PM which happens to kill people, has no book value, and yet has provided one of the best risk adjusted returns over the past few decades. A lot of things in life are pyramid schemes. They just happen to be legal pyramid schemes. To say this is a fraud you have to connect the dot between multi-level marketing and a regulator saying it's operated illegally. It's no less of a binary outcome than FNMA in my books. Part of the reason I might buy the stock is the reaction from the stock versus bond market. The bonds are trading at the same price in the low to mid 70's for a 10% yield while the stock is yielding around 20% (using EPS). Also some of the recent decline is attributed to a blog using bad data from Alexa. Or maybe the FTC is shutting the company down and people who are "in the know" are shorting the rest of the available float. Cigarettes (eventually) kill people, but by now pretty much everybody knows that. Cigarette companies were a lot more problematic ethically back when they denied and suppressed the evidence for harm. HLF is kind of at that level. Pretending to be one thing while being another so they can take advantage (money, time, energy) from some of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society. Personally, I find it despicable and will celebrate when they finally go bankrupt. In any case, I don't find the argument that "yes, they're bad, but others are bad too" comforting. Should I act badly as a person because other people do bad things too? Where does that thinking lead? I don't think my argument is "yes, they're bad, but others are bad too." I was arguing against the notion that since it is a "bad" business it should not be invested in. How do you decide to draw the line? Just because people know cigarettes kill them it's now okay to invest in PM because buyer beware? HLF discloses in their filings that 95% of distributors make no money. This isn't exactly hidden from the world. Go down that path of including ethics in the investment process and you'll short/exclude a lot of really good businesses. I personally have a couple family members that always seem to gravitate towards these marketing schemes and when I mention it's a waste of time they yell at me like I'm a fool. It probably isn't worth getting into a whole discussion about ethics in investing. Maybe the world is a better place without Herbalife but that isn't of my concern. This is a stock with big tugs in both directions from emotionally invested individuals and I am starting to see signs of the pendulum shifting too much in one direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's up to each of us to decide where we draw the line (I'm not investing in cigarettes either), I was just telling you where I draw it with HLF, and that I didn't find what you had written above ('there are other pyramid schemes..') convincing. It doesn't mean that you don't have other, better reasons for acting the way you do. In any case, best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I agree, I don't have a convincing argument why HLF is better than other MLM stocks. A lot of people have spent the time trying to figure it out with little success. This is probably time poorly spent since the outcome can sway the other direction even if you thought they operated legally. For anyone to invest in HLF I think you have to approach it as a binary outcome and size it that way. All the nuances of the business might not mean anything at the end of the day. Look at the analysis done on OCN/ASPS and regulators decide to take it over anyway and kick out Erbey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.cnbc.com/id/102317846 Ackman: After HLF, I'm done with 'public shorts' Not sure if he'll stick to that if he sees another one that hits him right in the sense of justice, but we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 This one's even better: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-on-squawk-box-2015-1 Regardless of how much DD people do, why can't they remember that there is no such thing as bad assets, only bad prices. The risk/reward equation still exists. We can increasingly see signs of Ackman getting too attached to this trade, and too obsessed about being right. Isn't the perennial rule of investing, not to get married to a position? Not to let emotions take over? To be humble enough to realize that no one can possibly know everything about everyone, all the time? That black-swans do appear? That you can still lose money on a specific deal even if you are right? Even if FTC comes out with a slap on the wrist and it's business as usual for HLF (from a regulatory perspective), I see no reason why Ackman would cover...at least not as long as he gets teary eyed during presentations and delude himself about doing God's work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Range Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 This one's even better: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-on-squawk-box-2015-1 Regardless of how much DD people do, why can't they remember that there is no such thing as bad assets, only bad prices. The risk/reward equation still exists. We can increasingly see signs of Ackman getting too attached to this trade, and too obsessed about being right. Isn't the perennial rule of investing, not to get married to a position? Not to let emotions take over? To be humble enough to realize that no one can possibly know everything about everyone, all the time? That black-swans do appear? That you can still lose money on a specific deal even if you are right? Even if FTC comes out with a slap on the wrist and it's business as usual for HLF (from a regulatory perspective), I see no reason why Ackman would cover...at least not as long as he gets teary eyed during presentations and delude himself about doing God's work. He has stated multiple times that he will "go to the ends of the earth" in terms of trying to end the Herbalife pyramid scheme but that the investment decision is a completely separate decision. He's mentioned that he is a fiduciary for his investors and that the risk/reward of the position is always monitored. Given his track record, I see no reason to doubt these statements. Disclosure: I have no position and no investment opinion about the situation. To use John Hempton's term, I simply enjoy following it because it is like "watching hedge fund porn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Just sold out of my position after a 50% move higher. Another one of those "bad" assets, good price moments in the low 30's. If history is any guide I probably sold too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Wow, quite a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritrading Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 "According to Herbalife, substantial survey results showed that most people join the company as discount consumers of its products." http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/herbalife-ltd-hlf-settlement-was-reasonable/ With 95% of distributors making no money, this was the only conclusion that I could come to that could allow HLF to stand the test of time. HLF's model after all, is direct selling. With the recent news of additional funds taking long positions, is this Ackman Icahn battle finally over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now