Grenville Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 1.75% of the fully diluted share count of the combined entity (including BRK's shares once exercised) - it's a decent chunk of change, which implies that the dividend yield on the $3 Billion is a lot higher than 9%, since a portion of the cost basis will be allocated to the warrants at their intrinsic value. Looks like the true yield could be above 10%. Great thank you for that number especially on a fully diluted and combined basis! The initial reports didn't disclose an equity portion when the preferred financing was announced with Berkshire. Good to see Berkshire continuing to do deals with 3G. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hamburger Helpers or Too Many Cooks? Burger King Franchisees Lukewarm on ‘Field Coaches’ From Headquarters http://online.wsj.com/articles/burger-king-franchisees-lukewarm-on-field-coaches-from-headquarters-1414364045?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I thought BKW was expensive in 2012. Looks even more expensive now. I should have listened to Mr. Ackman and Mr. Buffett: WB: It’s accurate. I met Georgie in December, and he said he was thinking of going into Heinz. Because I knew them both and thought high of them, I said I’m in. Then they got me a term sheet. Georgie Paolo brought me a term sheet on the deal and it was good. Absolutely fair deal. I didn’t change a word in either. Charlie and I paid more than if we were doing the deal ourselves because Georgie Paolo is a great manager, because he’s so classy, so we stretched a little. I like the business. The design of the deal is if we do good at Heinz we will get a high rate of return. Less leveraged than them. They wanted more leverage. In five years they receive higher rate of return but us with more money will get more. http://m.gurufocus.com/news_read.php?id=218379 BKWH has the potential to trade between $26 and $41 per share by 2016, depending on the extent to which management is successful in executing its domestic turnaround and international growth strategies. Management is doing all of the right things… … and has an impressive track record of success 3G Capital and management have enormous “skin in the game” The substantial majority of management options cliff vest in 2015 or later If management can achieve its strategic objectives at home and abroad, the stock price could triple by 2016 http://justiceholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Justice-Is-Best-Served-Flame-Broiled.pdf GARP, GARP, GARP. Why does fast food restaurants all trade at such lofty multiples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 because they collect high-margin inflation-linked royalties, grow using the capex of others, and rates are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 because they collect high-margin inflation-linked royalties, grow using the capex of others, and rates are low. I see. That sounds like John Malone's cable business. Is the only capex for training franchisees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 because they collect high-margin inflation-linked royalties, grow using the capex of others, and rates are low. Do you know the economics of these kinds of chains restaurants's investments into franchisee training costs? Will that achieve 20% return for the company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 sorry, i know very little about these businesses. I was just was answering why a fast food franchisor would trade at a high multiple. they own real estate and collect royalties, both of those activities offer inflation protection and the royalty stream is low capex. franchisees spend a lot of the money to grow the royalty stream. a growing inflation indexed cash flow stream from rents and royalty is worth a high multiple, particularly given interest rates. as long as franchisees remain profitable and stay in business that royalty stream is much less variable than say the underlying earnings of the franchisees. so it's more stable, has more pricing power, and lower capex requirements. multiples are some combination of stability/sensitivity to economy, capex requirements for growth and interest rates. I don't have any further insight, was just offering a simplistic answer to your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 sorry, i know very little about these businesses. I was just was answering why a fast food franchisor would trade at a high multiple. they own real estate and collect royalties, both of those activities offer inflation protection and the royalty stream is low capex. franchisees spend a lot of the money to grow the royalty stream. a growing inflation indexed cash flow stream from rents and royalty is worth a high multiple, particularly given interest rates. as long as franchisees remain profitable and stay in business that royalty stream is much less variable than say the underlying earnings of the franchisees. so it's more stable, has more pricing power, and lower capex requirements. multiples are some combination of stability/sensitivity to economy, capex requirements for growth and interest rates. I don't have any further insight, was just offering a simplistic answer to your question. Thank you! I ran some math on the BH thread for the Steak n Shake Franchisee training expense's return. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bh-biglari-holdings/920/ So the cost of expansion is mainly training them, right? And after that, you receive the royalty as a percentage of revenue forever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 sorry, i know very little about these businesses. I was just was answering why a fast food franchisor would trade at a high multiple. they own real estate and collect royalties, both of those activities offer inflation protection and the royalty stream is low capex. franchisees spend a lot of the money to grow the royalty stream. a growing inflation indexed cash flow stream from rents and royalty is worth a high multiple, particularly given interest rates. as long as franchisees remain profitable and stay in business that royalty stream is much less variable than say the underlying earnings of the franchisees. so it's more stable, has more pricing power, and lower capex requirements. multiples are some combination of stability/sensitivity to economy, capex requirements for growth and interest rates. I don't have any further insight, was just offering a simplistic answer to your question. Thank you! I ran some math on the BH thread for the Steak n Shake Franchisee training expense's return. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bh-biglari-holdings/920/ So the cost of expansion is mainly training them, right? And after that, you receive the royalty as a percentage of revenue forever? If I wanted to learn about the restaurant franchising business I'd read the McDonalds annual reports since inception and a few of ay Kroc books. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/17/is-bill-ackman-eyeing-a-stake-in-mcdonalds/ It seems inevitable that QSR is going to try to buy MCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/17/is-bill-ackman-eyeing-a-stake-in-mcdonalds/ It seems inevitable that QSR is going to try to buy MCD. Seems like a bit of a stretch. 3G used Buffett to get leverage above practically anything else on the market and it will take time to digest this. In the meantime MCD is likely to grow and make an acquisition even more expensive. I dunno, I don't see it. Although no one expected 3G to get BUD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 They might need to buy Yum first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The game plan is very clear here. 3G already created the template with Ambev. Choosing the name Restaurant Brands International and the symbol QSR clearly indicates that they plan to acquire additional Quick Service Restaurants. At least in North America, there are very few targets with sufficient scale: McDonalds Yum! Wendys Starbucks Dunkin Dominoes Chipolte ... McDonalds seems to be the most attractive target on that list. If you remember the LBO days, there are many creative ways to pull off that transaction (possibly with participation from WEB or Bill Ackman). Or MCD could "buy" QSR, with the QSR culture taking over. Not saying it will happen in the next 5 years but seems likely in the next 10 years. At the very least, I've decided to keep the shares I receive from Tim's but I am considering adding materially if QSR's stock price will slow down for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There is also the hurdle of this combined entity now being Canadian. Not sure McDonalds will buy QSR and be willing to move their headquarters to Canada. I could see a purchase of YUM. More digestible and some operational issues over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounder Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Has anyone calculated market cap and EV for QSR and can check the below for me please? 3G filed a 13D disclosing ownership of 243,858,915 shares at 54.69% which implies total shares of ~450 million, thus implying market cap of ~$17.5 billion. Add on $9b of debt and $3b of preferred giving EV of $29.5 billion and an EV/EBITDA of ~20x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Has anyone calculated market cap and EV for QSR and can check the below for me please? 3G filed a 13D disclosing ownership of 243,858,915 shares at 54.69% which implies total shares of ~450 million, thus implying market cap of ~$17.5 billion. Add on $9b of debt and $3b of preferred giving EV of $29.5 billion and an EV/EBITDA of ~20x. That's pretty close to right. Not cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounder Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Thank you very much. Some food for thought about my position in the name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JoelS Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Is 2014 EV/Ebitda of about 20x expensive? What is a more reasonable multiple for QSR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 The first question we need to answer is whether 2014 EBITDA represents the actual normalized earning power of the combined company. If it does, then 15x would be more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Surprised not to find an updated thread on QSR since it has such a strong 3G / Berkshire / Pershing Square connection. Rumor today is that they are interested in adding Popeyes to the group. If true, likely that Berkshire will get an offer to participate in some way - nevermind, I see it has a 1.5 Billion dollar market cap, doubt there is anything for BRK to do if that is correct http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/shares-of-popeyes-restaurant-brands-international-spike-on-acquisition-rumors.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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