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PlanMaestro

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I only own warrants. My margin loan interest rate would be 3.16% and after tax I would receive $0.95 per share after this dividend increase.

 

Given these metrics I give up about $0.37 per share per year. Ofc if your financing cost and your taxes are lower it could be significantly more attractive to lever up the common.

 

For me it's still ok and even though a higher dividend yield theoretically doesn't make a company more valuable, people like to chase yield and a steady dividend policy makes the stock more attractive to institutional investors.

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Story out this morning indicating that hedgies pushing for board seat and $8 bil. buyback.  Harry Wilson is going to be their nominee.  Seemingly excellent pick; I suspect harder for mgmt. to decline return of capital based on need for "fortress balance sheet" when the guy who brought the company out of bankruptcy is lobbying for it. 

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Yeah, sorry I took down the link to the story.  I thought people might want to get it from their preferred source.  I am excited to potentially have him as a board rep.  He's already adding value, from my perspective, if he makes management go through a more sophisticated analysis of allocating capital to buybacks versus dividends.

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Thanks CorpRaider.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102376522

 

Should be very interesting to have Wilson on the board.

 

a bit more details in this article.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-shareholder-seeks-spot-on-board-1423577927?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

 

....

 

GM said Mr. Wilson represents the Taconic Parties, Appaloosa Parties, HG Vora Parties and the Hayman Parties—together owning 34.4 million shares, or about 2.1% of GM’s stock. (thought these guys owned more but w/e)

 

 

....

 

 

Mr. Wilson’s proposal to repurchase $8 billion of stock in a year would put GM at the low end of its $20 billion to $25 billion liquidity target, the analyst said.

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Ackman had a brief comment on General Motors yesterdayy:

 

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/bill-ackman-harbor-conference/2/

 

RUHLE:  Before we go, do you have a view, Harry Wilson’s name has been in the news, Appaloosa and Kyle Bass trying to get Harry in the mix to push GM in terms of share buybacks.

 

Do you have a view on this, because there’s been a lot of grumbling?

 

ACKMAN:  So I think he is a — I’ve met him, Harry.  I think he’s very capable.  He clearly knows a lot about GM, because he was involved in the restructuring.

 

You know, the — the thing that’s — I’m not a big — I don’t like a thesis predicated on just capital return.  So my assumption is that Harry has more up his sleeve than just returning capital to shareholders.

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They would actually show up in the 13F. For example it has been known for a long time that Pabrai owns a lot og GM warrants.

 

Bass might have exited the position in Q4 2014 and then bought it back in 2015 when he talked with other fund managers?

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He still had some shares as of dec 31 so through those shares he became part of the investor group perhaps. I saw the total number of shares they represent but didn't see any breakdown. It would be quite unusual for a value investor to sell almost all of his position and then repurchase in a month or so... Anyways, very surprising. Tepper did not make any significant changes in his GM shares....

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  • 2 weeks later...

Buffett mentioned this morning that credit standards are starting to loosen in subprime auto. Wells Fargo has recently put a cap on the subprime % of total auto loans it is willing to underwrite - at 10%.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/02/business/dealbook/wells-fargo-puts-a-ceiling-on-subprime-auto-loans.html?ref=dealbook&_r=0

 

Although GM Financial is expanding into prime auto lending, a vast majority of its loans are made to subprime borrowers. I've been tracking its U.S. ABS trusts every month, and the number of delinquencies have been creeping up, for both 30-60 and 60+ days, although not quite as high as levels pre crash.

 

I haven't gone through GM Financial's '14 10-k yet, but I've been a bit concerned about this for some time. What does everyone think of this?

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Buffett mentioned this morning that credit standards are starting to loosen in subprime auto. Wells Fargo has recently put a cap on the subprime % of total auto loans it is willing to underwrite - at 10%.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/02/business/dealbook/wells-fargo-puts-a-ceiling-on-subprime-auto-loans.html?ref=dealbook&_r=0

 

Although GM Financial is expanding into prime auto lending, a vast majority of its loans are made to subprime borrowers. I've been tracking its U.S. ABS trusts every month, and the number of delinquencies have been creeping up, for both 30-60 and 60+ days, although not quite as high as levels pre crash.

 

I haven't gone through GM Financial's '14 10-k yet, but I've been a bit concerned about this for some time. What does everyone think of this?

 

It is concerning but GM financial isn't a large part of it's revenues. $4B compared to $150B of auto sales

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Buffett mentioned this morning that credit standards are starting to loosen in subprime auto. Wells Fargo has recently put a cap on the subprime % of total auto loans it is willing to underwrite - at 10%.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/02/business/dealbook/wells-fargo-puts-a-ceiling-on-subprime-auto-loans.html?ref=dealbook&_r=0

 

Although GM Financial is expanding into prime auto lending, a vast majority of its loans are made to subprime borrowers. I've been tracking its U.S. ABS trusts every month, and the number of delinquencies have been creeping up, for both 30-60 and 60+ days, although not quite as high as levels pre crash.

 

I haven't gone through GM Financial's '14 10-k yet, but I've been a bit concerned about this for some time. What does everyone think of this?

 

It is concerning but GM financial isn't a large part of it's revenues. $4B compared to $150B of auto sales

 

I haven't dug into it enough to speak with any conviction here, but I would say the concern shouldn't be with the size of the revenues generated from GM financial, but the size of their asset base and specifically the subprime auto assets.  I know that during the downturn when banks repossessed GM trucks and SUVs they took massive write-downs as loan amortizations had not yet caught up with the significant loss of value that occurred through depreciation (GM was hit the hardest due to their reliance on higher priced, low gas mileage vehicles).  You can bet that this would happen again if there was a significant downturn in the auto industry.  Adding supply of high-ticket SUVs and trucks onto the market will definitely hinder GM's ability to sell against used inventory.  Whether the subprime lending spree over the last few years, and/or the lower for longer lending environment  itself will wreak havoc on the auto industry is to be seen.  I believe there is definitely room for concern here.  Auto paper has traded at ridiculously low levels over the past few years despite the fact that auto loan terms have been extended without a down payment requirement.  This isn't to say I believe there is currently substantial risk to GM equity holders, but I do think a lot about whether the current lending conditions in the auto market are sustainable at higher interest rates.  The bank regulators are starting to warn about the subprime auto risks.  They have been warning about other risks that haven't come to pass yet (leveraged loans and SNCs for one) but, at least these days, when the regulators start to issue guidance, it usually means there is something going on in the market that should make us double check our assumptions.

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Buffett mentioned this morning that credit standards are starting to loosen in subprime auto. Wells Fargo has recently put a cap on the subprime % of total auto loans it is willing to underwrite - at 10%.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/02/business/dealbook/wells-fargo-puts-a-ceiling-on-subprime-auto-loans.html?ref=dealbook&_r=0

 

Although GM Financial is expanding into prime auto lending, a vast majority of its loans are made to subprime borrowers. I've been tracking its U.S. ABS trusts every month, and the number of delinquencies have been creeping up, for both 30-60 and 60+ days, although not quite as high as levels pre crash.

 

I haven't gone through GM Financial's '14 10-k yet, but I've been a bit concerned about this for some time. What does everyone think of this?

 

It is concerning but GM financial isn't a large part of it's revenues. $4B compared to $150B of auto sales

 

Yes but there are $25 billion of auto loans on the book, and $8 billion of dealership loans.

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