hyten1 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 BRK added 10 million shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Great post wbr. Capex was $8 billion in 2012 and $7.5 billion in 2013 according to the annual reports. They mentioned at their investor day that they expect capex to be ~5% of revenue in a run-rate basis according to someone (can't remember who I'm afraid) earlier in is thread, which would be in line with he last two years. So I'm differentiating from the run-rate and the maintenance cap-ex. The former almost certainly prices in growth cap-ex while the latter does not, and I think the run-rate you're referencing is probably inclusive of growth cap-ex. In any case, if you take the % of revenue as cap-ex over the last decade for Ford, you get 4% of revenues, and I suspect that you have a bit of growth cap-ex in that average as well. 2009 3.86% 2010 3.17% 2011 3.15% Those are the lowest % for cap-ex during the last decade for Ford. There's probably no growth-cap ex in those numbers. My guess is that maintenance cap-ex for GM is closer to $5 billion than $8 billion. Not to bring up old stuff but Iwanted to get everyone's perspective. I would argue that basically all Auto CAPEX is maintenance CAPEX. You need newer models to maintain your market share, period. If you were adding capacity maybe but even then it's such a crap shoot. The only time you can really consider it growth CAPEX is when you use you spend extra to speed up the cadence in my humble opinion. Thoughts? I don't disagree. They'll probably only eventually add capacity to grow in markets like China where the units are expected to grow faster than population growth due to the increasing adoption of vehicles over time as per capita affluence increases. That's something we don't directly see due to JV accounting, although I think they do disclose assets at the JV level. GM is otherwise a mature business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Great post wbr. Capex was $8 billion in 2012 and $7.5 billion in 2013 according to the annual reports. They mentioned at their investor day that they expect capex to be ~5% of revenue in a run-rate basis according to someone (can't remember who I'm afraid) earlier in is thread, which would be in line with he last two years. So I'm differentiating from the run-rate and the maintenance cap-ex. The former almost certainly prices in growth cap-ex while the latter does not, and I think the run-rate you're referencing is probably inclusive of growth cap-ex. In any case, if you take the % of revenue as cap-ex over the last decade for Ford, you get 4% of revenues, and I suspect that you have a bit of growth cap-ex in that average as well. 2009 3.86% 2010 3.17% 2011 3.15% Those are the lowest % for cap-ex during the last decade for Ford. There's probably no growth-cap ex in those numbers. My guess is that maintenance cap-ex for GM is closer to $5 billion than $8 billion. Not to bring up old stuff but Iwanted to get everyone's perspective. I would argue that basically all Auto CAPEX is maintenance CAPEX. You need newer models to maintain your market share, period. If you were adding capacity maybe but even then it's such a crap shoot. The only time you can really consider it growth CAPEX is when you use you spend extra to speed up the cadence in my humble opinion. Thoughts? Cadence as in speeding up a refresh cycle/refresh time between newer models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 In my opinion, you can't count it all as maintenance cap-ex considering that they are trying to expand internationally, etc. That means additional plants that they didn't have before. For instance, consider how Fiat is building plants in China to get around the import tax. That's certainly not maintenance cap ex because it's a new plant, and it will lower the price of Jeeps so that they can sell more of them to the Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven B Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Great post wbr. Capex was $8 billion in 2012 and $7.5 billion in 2013 according to the annual reports. They mentioned at their investor day that they expect capex to be ~5% of revenue in a run-rate basis according to someone (can't remember who I'm afraid) earlier in is thread, which would be in line with he last two years. So I'm differentiating from the run-rate and the maintenance cap-ex. The former almost certainly prices in growth cap-ex while the latter does not, and I think the run-rate you're referencing is probably inclusive of growth cap-ex. In any case, if you take the % of revenue as cap-ex over the last decade for Ford, you get 4% of revenues, and I suspect that you have a bit of growth cap-ex in that average as well. 2009 3.86% 2010 3.17% 2011 3.15% Those are the lowest % for cap-ex during the last decade for Ford. There's probably no growth-cap ex in those numbers. My guess is that maintenance cap-ex for GM is closer to $5 billion than $8 billion. Not to bring up old stuff but Iwanted to get everyone's perspective. I would argue that basically all Auto CAPEX is maintenance CAPEX. You need newer models to maintain your market share, period. If you were adding capacity maybe but even then it's such a crap shoot. The only time you can really consider it growth CAPEX is when you use you spend extra to speed up the cadence in my humble opinion. Thoughts? Cadence as in speeding up a refresh cycle/refresh time between newer models? Correct. I guess the point is well taken regarding growth in China, were it really is about expanding market share. That around $2B of Capex isn't even consolidated into GM financials (not Financial) so I'd still consider most of the reported CAPEX maintenance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 First GM China-made import to U.S. to go on sale in mid-2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-china-usa-idUSKBN0TN2GP20151204?feedType=nl&feedName=usdai This seems to be wonderful news for the company (US labour / union, not so). Short-term, the company can utilize lower cost oversea labour; this is especially beneficial to GM (compared to other OEMs) as it's among the biggest foreign carmaker in China. Long-term, the export/import strategy helps its global plants keep their utilization high, as opposed to having some plants in weak markets idle and others in strong markets running over-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcd Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Only stock retained from 2014 list is GM. Quote: "GM has slashed its debt through bankruptcy restructuring and cut its U.S. break-even point from 16 million yearly vehicles to fewer than 11 million. The recent pace of sales is over 18 million. During the next downturn, assuming a sales decline of ordinary size, earnings are likely to remain solidly positive, say $3 to $4 a share. " http://www.barrons.com/articles/barrons-top-10-stock-picks-for-2016-1449293654 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 GM @ 6 PE and yielding 4.3% !!! One upside of rising rates for GM is that it decreases today's cost of pension-related promises in the future. Glass half full! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Our analysis of GM has been posted on our website: http://www.dalalholdings.com/blog/gmjan16.html To summarize, New GM, with a focus on product quality and shareholder returns, is a distinct entity from its former self. The company's focus on product quality has earned it top honors among auto critics and top scores for reliability, making it the most reliable large American auto company. GM is the largest auto manufacturer in North America and dominates in large vehicles: GM stands to benefit from low oil prices more than any other automaker. GM is value in plain sight: management, with its focus on capital returns, should repurchase shares as swiftly as possible at current levels to maximize long term shareholder returns. I have owned several GM products over the years. Unfortunately, they (and their dealer network) have left me with an EXTREMELY unpleasant owner/customer experience. In fact, it is so silly/bad that I doubt I will ever buy another GM product. I (and my family) have owned and currently own corvettes. These are newer "modern" corvettes. We take good care of them and are not racing/abusing them. After a few years, they start to have mechanical problems that they absolutely should not be having. It has also been common across different models & years. I have had experiences in dealerships that are straight out of an "Onion" parody. I was once interested in buying a Cadillac CTS-V. I was very interested in the various paint options. Asked if they had a swatch of colors OR a brochure. As to the paint colors, was told to look on the interweb to see what was offered. As to the sales brochure, YES, the dealership had them. I was free to read one, but could not take it home with me. I would get one if I bought one of the cars.... Another story....was interested in the new corvettes a couple of years ago. I drive up to dealership in mine....they know I am a serious buyer. Asked some different questions and after a 1/2 hour of talking with the sales rep, asked if I could take one on a test drive. SURE! Was the response. How will you be paying for it? I have to pay for a test drive? NO, you have to buy the car first, THEN you can take it for a test drive! This was the policy for EVERYBODY, not just me. Sales reps are not allowed to drive them...as they don't want miles put on them.... Same thing with a CTS-V at a different dealership...but it first, then you can test drive it. I have other stories too...but the end result is I am done with GM stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You have to buy the car to test drive it? This is straight out of the Mad Men episode about the Jaguar dealer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Audi has the same policy with the S5, at least from the dealer I went to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are you guys being discriminated against in some way (minority, young, etc)? This policy baffles me completely, I've never once heard of anything like this... would be curious if others had the same experience... wow... Can't test drive without buying is probably the weirdest thing I've heard of in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnejad Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Didn't GM (Buick) just have a whole month of commercials advertising how you could test drive its cars for 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are you guys being discriminated against in some way (minority, young, etc)? This policy baffles me completely, I've never once heard of anything like this... would be curious if others had the same experience... wow... Can't test drive without buying is probably the weirdest thing I've heard of in a while... I don't think I am a minority or odd ball. I am a reasonably educated white man who was in his early 40's. I was also relatively clean cut on those days as I had to go into downtown Houston for CLE. They also knew OR strongly suspected that I was of financial means to buy the car. I knew a lot about it and had been studying it before hand, so clearly I am not some guy coming in off the street looking for a joy ride. AND THE CLINCHER IS THAT ONE OF THE VEHICLES I ALREADY OWN IS AN ALMOST NEW HIGH END CORVETTE. They saw me drive up in it...I wanted to see what the differences were between models. When I pressed them on the test drive. They explained that was dealer policy AIN'T NOBODY DRIVING ANY CORVETTE or CADILLAC CTS-V for any reason. That applies to everybody. As to sales brochures, every salesperson gets one. They also get another one for every car that they sell. They sell them on the interweb. In an interesting comparison, this is not the policy at the Porsche or Mercedes dealership.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Well, they sell to Buffett and he doesn't need a test drive, so who are you to request one? And get off their lawn. Or buy the damn dealership. ;D :P (Just kidding of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 GM Invests $500 Million in Lyft http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/gm-invests-500-million-in-lyft-to-bolster-alliance-against-uber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Didn't GM (Buick) just have a whole month of commercials advertising how you could test drive its cars for 24 hours? That very well could be the case....but I'm not interested in any vehicle other than the one I came to see... When I was there, they said they would be happy to let me drive a Malibu or some other vehicle. Somehow, I think a Malibu is a bit different than a Corvette though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikhil25 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 GM’s Mary Barra to Add Chairman Role http://www.wsj.com/articles/gms-mary-barra-to-add-chairman-role-1451934062 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsmehta Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Are there any anticipated one-time charges to expect in Q4? --------------------------------- Q3 earnings were $1.50 ex one-time charges Based on sales data from: 3 months in q4 from US 2 months in q4 from China 2 months in q4 from EU Q4 earnings have to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.70 ex any other one-time charges. What do people think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnejad Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There are UAW bonuses this quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsmehta Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There are UAW bonuses this quarter. You have any idea how much this will amount to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnejad Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Not exactly, but it's enough to meaningfully change your calculation. There are 53,000 UAW employees and I believe they get their typical annual profit share (~$9K) as well as this year's UAW signing bonus of ~ $8K in this year's Q4. So that would chop off about $0.40 from your estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishig Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Dec reported a peak in US car sales above the last peak last reported 15 years ago. GM has been firing on all cylinders. The stock has continued to be in $32 - $34 range for a long time ever since the recalls started. Now that the recalls are behind and US car sales as well as US EBIT margins are peak, you would think that Wall Street would no longer mis price the stock. What is Mr. Market wrong about? Why does GM continue to be undervalued and what needs to happen for Mr. Market to recognize the value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Autonation sees slowdown in high end luxury cars. http://www.wsj.com/articles/autonation-ceo-sees-slowdown-in-premium-luxury-cars-1452080663?mod=yahoo_hs GM has fairly diverse brands---wouldn't call them "high end luxury"? GM trading at 6 PE on 2016 earnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishig Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Autonation sees slowdown in high end luxury cars. http://www.wsj.com/articles/autonation-ceo-sees-slowdown-in-premium-luxury-cars-1452080663?mod=yahoo_hs GM has fairly diverse brands---wouldn't call them "high end luxury"? GM trading at 6 PE on 2016 earnings? Given that US sales and US EBIT margins are at peak, can they be considered peak earnings (after one takes out one time expenses)? What more does GM have to do at the business level for Mr. Market to give it a higher PE ratio? The question I have is why is Mr. Market delusional about valuing GM here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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