vince Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Anyone that was truly hopeful of 2019 commercialization is out of their minds. GM stock will outperform the market over next 5 years but its gonna make shareholders cry a few times on the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Big earnings release upcoming. I'd like to see some sort of confidence signal from these guys. They already declared the dividend this afternoon, so no change there. Would have liked to see a modest bump to maybe 40c a quarter and a nice big buyback announcement. There's no reason this shouldn't have been doable given the supposedly "conservative" approach they claim they've been taking the last few years. Hopefully there's also some more color on Cruise. That said, I'm fully expecting the share reaction to be poor. Mary Barra seems to have Dougie Parker syndrome. The uncanny ability to ruin nice operating results simply be opening her mouth. I wouldn't even say I'm cautiously optimistic here. As a GM shareholder I continue to be short term bearish, really long term bullish. Silly to be anything other at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/general-motors-earnings-q3-2018.html Smashed it. Now keep your mouth shut Mary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/auto-cycle-leaves-plenty-of-room-for-ford-and-gm-to-grow-analysts.html https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-stock-less-risky-investment-than-tesla-self-driving-cars-2018-10 Finally some bullish headlines trickling in with the solid earnings report! What I like about GM at these levels is that there are multiple ways to win. Improved capital allocation would send the stock higher. Positive surprises in auto sales would also send it a lot higher. Continued bullish sentiment around Cruise Automotive may also serve as a major catalyst. The present valuation clearly assumes worst case scenarios coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/general-motors-earnings-q3-2018.html Smashed it. Now keep your mouth shut Mary! "Today, our structural costs are not aligned with the market realities nor the transformational priorities ahead" http://www.autonews.com/article/20181101/OEM/181109961/gm-design-center-renovation-barra-letter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Highlighting Barra's incompetency with capital allocation... Has anyone noticed they've repurchased 0 shares the past two quarters... just as the stock started getting really cheap again? It seems their only commitment was to buy OVER 37.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 My guess is that they took a pause given the macro uncertainty, but I agree that at these price levels (low 30's), I'd like to see them being aggressive on share buybacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 My guess is that they took a pause given the macro uncertainty, but I agree that at these price levels (low 30's), I'd like to see them being aggressive on share buybacks. Macro uncertainty, lol, you are probably right and I am not laughing at you buy thats why they have 20 billion of cash, so they dont have to worry about macro uncertainty......so they can execute their operating and capital strategy even during a recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I think it was communicated they were going to weight it towards the end of the year. Expect them to really step it up q4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I think it was communicated they were going to weight it towards the end of the year. Expect them to really step it up q4. I do not recall this. Do you know where/when? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Q1 2018. There is also a capital allocation slide among 2/3 calls this year that underscores returning ALL FCF to shareholders: During the quarter, we returned $600 million to our shareholders through $500 million in dividends and $100 million in stock repurchases through our participation in the VEBA Trust sale. Our pace of buybacks for 2018 will be dependent on our free cash flow generation and any additional calls on cash throughout the year, such as the Korea restructuring payments. We would expect share buybacks to be weighted to the second half of the year. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166467-general-motors-gm-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Q1 2018. There is also a capital allocation slide among 2/3 calls this year that underscores returning ALL FCF to shareholders: During the quarter, we returned $600 million to our shareholders through $500 million in dividends and $100 million in stock repurchases through our participation in the VEBA Trust sale. Our pace of buybacks for 2018 will be dependent on our free cash flow generation and any additional calls on cash throughout the year, such as the Korea restructuring payments. We would expect share buybacks to be weighted to the second half of the year. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166467-general-motors-gm-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Thanks... Have to think they got lucky, and then hope they took advantage of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Q1 2018. There is also a capital allocation slide among 2/3 calls this year that underscores returning ALL FCF to shareholders: During the quarter, we returned $600 million to our shareholders through $500 million in dividends and $100 million in stock repurchases through our participation in the VEBA Trust sale. Our pace of buybacks for 2018 will be dependent on our free cash flow generation and any additional calls on cash throughout the year, such as the Korea restructuring payments. We would expect share buybacks to be weighted to the second half of the year. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166467-general-motors-gm-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Thanks... Have to think they got lucky, and then hope they took advantage of it. Don't get your hopes up Gregmal. But I will say this, it's possible she had a phone call or went to Omaha again for another visit and maybe it was hinted that she should resume aggressively....so there is a chance you will see some but I think it's pretty obvious that's not a priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 “But I will say this, it's possible she had a phone call or went to Omaha again for another visit and maybe it was hinted that she should resume aggressively....” Just curious are you suggesting that Berkshire has been advocating a buyback? I’m with you and like to see them step up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 “But I will say this, it's possible she had a phone call or went to Omaha again for another visit and maybe it was hinted that she should resume aggressively....” Just curious are you suggesting that Berkshire has been advocating a buyback? I’m with you and like to see them step up as well. Buffett doesn't generally like to get involved but he is known to get what he wants with a subtle nudge. I am positive in this case that he thinks it's value enhancing but the potential negatives of influencing mgmt, in his mind, probably isn't worth it. He has stated before that he thinks she is wonderful and his style of praising and leaving mgmt alone is the way he feels he gets the best performance. This also has the effect of contributing to good relationships with mgmt's which we all know he treasures. I know she has made her way to his office before so it's possible but not likely imo. He has the luxury of being extremely patient and quiet when he sees actions that are contrary to the interests of shareholders especially one that isn't that serious. A non-buyback is much different than actions that immediately harm shareholders.....plus she really has done a good job with the hand she was dealt, at least operationally and her perseverance in tackling the beurocracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Thanks for getting back. I wasnt sure if you’d seen something specific. This is actually not a Buffett position from my understanding but actually one of his lieutenants. But I agree with you philosophically that share buybacks would be value enhancing at these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 While this might not exactly be a "Buffett position", my understanding has always been that it is one that has his blessing, much more so than others. He has regularly applauded Mary Barra, publicly showcased his new Cadillac, and in general, has been quite aggressive at various points in terms of getting more exposure to autos. I don't expect him to make a move, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he does eventually try to acquire one of the big auto companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Thanks for getting back. I wasnt sure if you’d seen something specific. This is actually not a Buffett position from my understanding but actually one of his lieutenants. But I agree with you philosophically that share buybacks would be value enhancing at these levels. Well that's true, it is a Weschler position but based on a previous Buffett interview he is close enough to it where he commented that she visited him and he felt she was doing a wonderful job. You can judge for yourself whether she would be influenced by his nudging if he tried to or whether he would be inclined to at all. I personally think that there is a decent chance but probably not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 id bet my life he'd never acquire an auto manufacturer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just a hunch, but the price action of late IMO would seem to indicate that they are actively repurchasing stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 id bet my life he'd never acquire an auto manufacturer. And at various points people had said this about airlines, and technology companies too. I wouldn't bet on it, but it wouldn't catch me by surprise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 insofar the pressure on buybacks, it's probably been discussed before but Einhorn's Greenlight owns a ton of stock although he dialed back a little bit. Maybe due to redemptions as he's stringing bad years. Anyway they publicly called out GM on capital allocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2018/11/16/gm-drives-transformation-promising-risk-disruption/2014335002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 What happens when an unstoppable force meets an under performing object? Trump dishes out tariffs, tariffs hurt GM, GM cuts 15% of US workforce. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/general-motors-accelerates-transformation-300755112.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/26/gm-unallocating-several-plants-in-2019-to-take-3-billion-to-3point8-billion-charge-in-future-quarters.html General Motors will dramatically cut production at a number of plants in Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, and Ontario, Canada in 2019, the company said Monday. I'm sure the trade war is helping a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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