PlanMaestro Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Ron Jon is out And I don't get why the stock is up. This is the nightmare scenario: no plan forward, no easy way back, and liquidation value in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I think a lot of people were shorting this stock because Ron Johnson was running the company into the ground. At least I was. Judging from same store sales, he clearly made a mess out of JCP. 2- A lot of stock price movements in the short run are random. Or any stock with very high short interest can go up due to shorts being forced to cover (e.g. engineered buy-ins). Fundamentals really don't matter in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Ron Jon is out http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/08/jcpenney-johnson-idUSL2N0CV1UC20130408?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43 This is a terrible decision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Nice timing: I think they will achieve it, but I am worried about being stuck in a situation where lightning strikes (black swan stuff) and they wind up firing Ron Johnson out of nowhere, or who knows. next post: Ron Jon is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 This is a terrible decision... Yes, but now it might make it really possible the opportunity that lots of people on this board is waiting for: buying JCP for <$10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Yes, but now it might make it really possible the opportunity that lots of people on this board is waiting for: buying JCP for <$10. Thing is... JCP was only interesting w/ Ron Johnson and his ideas... otherwise, it's just another also-ran retailer. We will see what happens w/ Ullman... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Nice timing: I think they will achieve it, but I am worried about being stuck in a situation where lightning strikes (black swan stuff) and they wind up firing Ron Johnson out of nowhere, or who knows. next post: Ron Jon is out lol ^ This is really disappointing. Yes, he made some stupid mistakes; but his vision for the company was great and there is evidence it's working. They need to fix the financial situation there, but there was no need to fire Johnson. It's ultimately a loss for shareholders. I used to think that Ackman is not a typical shortsighted Wall St. guy and more like Buffett; but I can see that he is no Warren Buffett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Hm... Cook hasn't filled his previous position at Apple... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Thing is... JCP was only interesting w/ Ron Johnson and his ideas... otherwise, it's just another also-ran retailer. We will see what happens w/ Ullman... True, but I was just saying that the chance of this one going to <$10 is higher now. And no matter who is running the company, if the stock goes cheap enough, it still can be a good investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Thing is... JCP was only interesting w/ Ron Johnson and his ideas... otherwise, it's just another also-ran retailer. We will see what happens w/ Ullman... True, but I was just saying that the chance of this one going to <$10 is higher now. And no matter who is running the company, if the stock goes cheap enough, it still can be a good investment. Yes, that's true -- but I think it's more interesting as a long-term growth play than as a cigar butt -- which is likely what JCP would be sub-$10 and w/o true visionary leadership. The interesting thing would be if Sears picked up Ron Johnson now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 WOW don't accuse me of anything funny now!! I only last night said I couldn't invest in the stock because a black swan event could occur. Gasp, I just heard this news and have yet to read it, but wow I really called this one boys. Overall Worst decision I have seen in years. Maybe SHLD should get him, quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 what struck me as interesting was that at the joe fresh in the local jcp, i didn't see anyone the last four times i went - last time being yesterday. then i saw a few posts on the net saying the same thing - no one at joe fresh. at the same time, they're saying joe fresh needs to hit big. none of it adds up. i think the main issue beyond testing is that ron johnson tried to impose his own sensibility on the retail store and the customer base without really thinking about it. no one in the bay area that i know has even heard of joe fresh. by firing ron johnson, it seems to me that they are saying that preliminary numbers from the new jcp are not as good as they once they thought they were. otherwise, why wouldn't they play this out instead of being in no man's land as plan maestro indicated. right now, with interim numbers on new jcp probably questionable and with cap ex/installations midway, who knows what will happen to the price. i'm waiting for under $10 to consider this as shorts, etc. can get quite emotional. the positive here is that the cap ex burn should be reduced. not sure what will save the top and bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 The hype about joe fresh was hype. It was never about joe fresh. It was about attracting customers to the store because for the first time in decades the entrance to the store had a new brand with a flashy display and enticing colors and styling. Joe fresh wasn't about selling joe fresh from day 1 - it was about being a magnet for customers to give JCP a look because hell, who wants to walk into those stores without any allure? Joe fresh did bring something to the stores just fine, but that's where it ended. Once you get into JCP and past the little joe fresh spot... its back to the graveyard. I think Ron Johnson needs to be poached and given a lot more constraint by the leadership. Hes so brilliant and so ahead of his time that quite frankly he doesn't belong anywhere except at nascent Apple. Him going back there would be pointless. I think he needs to be at Sears where Lampert can give him that freedom with constraint. All in all, Ron Johnson was dealt a bad hand. He had the square footage and vision to do this right. I don't think Ullman will carry this forward at any rate close to what Ron wanted. JCP will just go back to being JCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otsog Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Kind of surprised Ackman didn't make the announcement. Shares dropping now in after hours. Real bummer overall, was an interesting story at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Questions: 1. Is Lampert the kind of billionaire CEO who wouldn't mind working with a "LOOK AT ME" kind of guy Johnson sometimes seems to be. 2. What, realistically, is the chance JCP trades below the multi-decade low of ~$9.25 from 10/06/2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Guys, who cares where it might trade? That's secondary to: what is it worth? Their sales are dropping and they are trying to figure out who their customer is. It would be interesting if the new guy continued to carry out he current vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 If you want to change a business model you should aim for evolutions, not revolutions! BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 lampert's an excellent capital allocator, but i don't know about department store retail management. yeah, i agree, johnson would be an improvement, especially after learning from all the mistakes at jcp. that said, there's probably somebody out there better than either ullman or johnson. as for ackman, not sure what to make of him at this point. after his involvement in borders and jcp so far, i think retail may not be his forte. he's done a fabulous job with hhc though. i have a 7% position in hhc and have been following it since the spinoff. making the right moves on the south street seaport, in hawaii, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Ackman is a dyed in the wool real estate guy. He went into all the retailers he wanted a prt of to convince them to spin their real estate into profit centers. He cannot be blamed for the jcp fallout but he can be blamed for drinking the turnaround cool aid. I think Roth left because he too wanted a real estate deal to come about. Johnson really went after the retail assets. Roth got sick of it and left. Ackman most likely wants to turn the retail back to the old decline but force the real estate into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I am convinced there were three oppositional voices inside the company and ackman may have begun with a real estate thesis and somehow got caught in the Ron Johnson glow. Ron says we can turn around the stores. Spins a tale of gold, ackman says fine lets do it. Roth wants real estate transactions but not at the expense of the existing company falling apart. Johnson only cares about the stores and new customers. Three voices two of which control the stock and hold board seats is bound to get heated when Johnson's talking about a revolution and these guys are playing along but really are after real estate. Is why to this day Eddie Lampert never succumbed to throwing money into store redesigns and turning the stores around until he could be certain they'll be profitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Just thinking out loud on this one. I have no idea whether this is a good thing or a disaster. But I wonder how hard it really is for them to make a big push here. They could run a "we missed you, we're back!" ad campaign and really shoot out a ton of coupons. I think people overestimate a bit whether old customers would refuse to come back. At the end of the day what does someone really care? It's a department store and this isn't 1948. If you can get your slacks and shoes for 15% off in a style you like what does it matter? They love Macy's so much now they won't return? So with the cost cuts and cutting all the capex it would seem that they could surprise (maybe). Make a big push and bang out a REIT or something and who knows. Wouldn't surprise me either if the rumors of PE interest isn't far off. Someone who thinks they can squeeze something out of all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 For me, the interest is gone unless Ullman can pull the shops within a shop concept. The real money was in driving sales per square foot way up or what Ackman described that could make this into a 15 bagger. Expanding the Sephora idea if you will. If they just go back to the old model and are successful, you may be looking at $40 a share. And that is a big maybe considering how bad of a shape they are in now with their customers and the balance sheet. I am thinking that they may also go private at this point or do the REIT thing, but it seems that the upside then becomes truly limited. It is a very different thesis anyhow unless they keep moving forward with the shops concept. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Even if this goes private who is running the company? You still need that talent running it. Jcrew went private and Millard Drexler still runs it. I cannot imagine Dell being run without Dell... to me, the new JCP is a company that comes with Ron Johnson. To have any other scenario is just fooling ourselves. JCP is screwed. They just dropped their CEO one year into a transformation he said would take four years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 How's the debt trading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 June 2011, he said his “lifetime dream has been to lead one of the large great retailers, to reimagine what it could be.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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