100% Chance of Global Recession

[JEast]

Marc Faber indicates his current thoughts is in late 2012 or 2013 as the high end consumer stocks are rolling over (i.e. Tiffany).  Also that the Euro and Aussie currencies are starting to rollover.  On the other hand, may have a rally as Greece is eventually resolved in the next few months.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47566735

 

Cheers

JEast

[WarrenWatsa]

Does Faber have a good track record? Does he have a published track record? What are his historical average annual returns like?

 

It seems like, and I haven't done the research to say this, but, it SEEMS like he makes a lot of predictions - a few of which work out and many of which don't.

 

I'm just not sure the guy is worth listening to. There are so many "gurus" out there who don't fare much better than the average investor and sometimes fare even worse. I'm not sure Faber is any different, and would like to see strong evidence to the contrary (such as a recorded history of market outperformance).

[Parsad]

I put Faber and Abbie Joseph Cohen in the same category.  Like a broken clock has the correct time twice a day, Faber and Cohen's predictions are correct twice every 25 years.  He's been a permabear for so long now, and briefly turned his opinion the other way in late 2010, once the markets had already moved up enormously.

 

There is a significant chance of a global recession, but not because Faber called it.  And there is significant chance of another bull market 2-3 years from now, not because Cohen called it either.  Cheers!

[JEast]

I would tend to agree with the clock analogy but would credit his comments a little more and move it up to four times a day :)  He was one of the earlier ones calling for a global housing bubble so I have always enjoyed Marc Fabers more global oriented comments similar to Jim Rogers.  Both love the commodity super cycle and China.  Recognize Faber is Swiss but lives in Thailand when he is home.  I believe the guy has more frequent flyer miles than a pilot as he probably travels the globe at least twice a year, maybe more.

 

Cheers

JEast

[ERICOPOLY]

This is one time when he is incorrect.  Nothing has a 100% chance.  But they love to hear that kind of stuff in the press.

[Uccmal]

Ya gotta love it.  How do you define a "Global Recession".  Please enlighten.

 

Does it occur when:

1- 51% of the worlds countries are in recession

2- 100% (99% for Eric) of the worlds countries are in recesssion.

3- The worlds GDP or equivalent drops.

 

And then, how do you define it according to duration:

1) 1 month

2) 1 Q, etc.

 

And since we never actually know the real GDP/GNP stats until months into a recession, maybe its already come, and gone. 

 

Alot of Bullshit, if you ask me.