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POE.V - Pan Orient Energy


sculpin

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It has been delayed... again. We should hear something by the end of October/early November or see one of the latest press releases.

 

In the meantime, we should get more results from Thailand drilling. I am hoping for continued good news there or de-risking further this story. It would be nice to have Thailand + remaining cash as the only necessary anchor of value to support share price at current level or paying zero for Indonesian potential.

 

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https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2810518&symbol=POE&region=C

 

Thesis keeps getting better while price not moving so much.

 

Production for June net to POE was 1,540 bls/d. As they keep growing this asset rapidly which will be the case with further discoveries, we could easily end up with 2,000 bls/d.

 

Current market cap assuming stock options dilution is $144 million. So ignoring cash on hand, huge potential in Indonesia and SAGD project, we end up with a per flowing valuation of $72,000. Considering that they are receiving Brent pricing and not subject to egress issues as in Canada this seems reasonable. Furthermore, I do believe that production could go higher than 2,000 bls/d if they keep obtaining such exploration success.

 

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  • 1 month later...

More good news from Thailand and more delays in Indonesia.

 

"L53-B1 appraisal well encountered a combined approximately 35 meters of net oil pay within five main sandstone intervals between the true vertical depths of 844 and 1,043 meters"

 

" Anggun-1X exploration well, which had originally been anticipated to commence drilling prior to the end of October, has been delayed to approximately November 12 due to forest fires in the immediate vicinity of the well access road."

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-orient-energy-corp-operations-123005251.html

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Almost ready to drill in Indonesia. And Thailand producing more than originally expected with more wells to drill next year.

 

Operations update: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/12/1945389/0/en/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-Operations-Update.html

 

"Thailand oil sales averaged 2,447 BOPD in October 2019 and was 2,697 BOPD on November 9 (this includes L53-DD5ST1 testing). This is substantially above the proven and probable reserves estimated production of approximately 1,432 BOPD in the December 31, 2018 reserves report for this time period."

 

 

"INDONESIA

East Jabung PSC (Pan Orient 49% & Non Operator)

Drilling rig acceptance procedures for the Anggun-1X exploration well are estimated to be completed on November 13th with drilling to commence immediately thereafter.  Shareholders will be informed when the well has commenced drilling."

 

 

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We are pleased to announce drilling of the Anggun-1X exploration well in Indonesia commenced November 14th and the well is expected to reach total depth in an estimated 20 to 30 days.  The fourth quarter will see preparations for an expanded Thailand exploration and appraisal drilling program that will commence in early January 2020."

The structural complex being targeted by the Anggun-1X well was estimated by Gaffney Cline & Associates (“GCA”) pre AYU-1X in 2015 to hold a Pmean potential of 122.9MMboe (recoverable) net to POE’s interest within the Batu Raja, Gumai and ABF formations.

 

http://www.panorient.ca/images/stories/file/Pan_Orient_Energy_Corp_Jul4-2019_Annual_Special_Meeting_Presentation.pdf

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There has been a lot of criticism of POE for past delays and nothing ever seems to come in on time.

 

So in the case of the Anggun-1X drill site you just have to ask yourself why would they take the time and go to the extra expense of building a PERMANENT road to access this drill site unless they were pretty damn sure of positive results. Or am I overlooking something?

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There has been a lot of criticism of POE for past delays and nothing ever seems to come in on time.

 

So in the case of the Anggun-1X drill site you just have to ask yourself why would they take the time and go to the extra expense of building a PERMANENT road to access this drill site unless they were pretty damn sure of positive results. Or am I overlooking something?

 

I've thought the same thing.  They've done temporary roads in the past to exploratory drill sites.  It appears that they are fairly confident about this one.  One thing that gives me pause is that they have a huge approved buyback plan, yet the volume has been very low.  Why haven't they been buying back their stock like crazy at these prices?    I hope they don't wait until they hit huge and the stock shoots up to start buying back stock.  Many companies do their buy backs in just that way.  Or is it that they aren't really as confident as they seem?    Fingers crossed.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Glad I resisted the temptation to buy more shares over the past month or so. But if it doesn't bounce this morning I might pick up a few more shares.

 

Disappointing news, but I think it has overshadowed the successes they have had in Thailand. This company is still healthy with money in the bank and revenue coming in. The price today is back where it was prior to the good news they have had out of Thailand.

 

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Glad I resisted the temptation to buy more shares over the past month or so. But if it doesn't bounce this morning I might pick up a few more shares.

 

Disappointing news, but I think it has overshadowed the successes they have had in Thailand. This company is still healthy with money in the bank and revenue coming in. The price today is back where it was prior to the good news they have had out of Thailand.

 

 

I picked some up yesterday.  I couldn't resist.

 

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  • 8 months later...

There are a lot of long-time followers on this thread. And the Company has certainly been through a lot of ups and downs over the last couple of years (and throughout its history really). I am wondering if any of you have strong impressions of management and/or the Company's strategy.

 

I have been pretty unsuccessful in communicating with management. I had a phone call with Bill Ostlund in early May and a couple of emails with Jeff Chisholm but received very little in the way of answers to basic questions and was not able to get a sense of the Company's strategic direction. With such limited interaction, I also wasn't able to get a good read on management's capability or shareholder friendliness. To be clear, I didn't come away with a negative impression; I simply don't have much to go on either way.

 

Jeff did say that the Company is still hoping to have an in-person AGM later this year if travel/quarantining rules allow for it which is why they have not yet scheduled the meeting. (Currently, Thailand requires quarantine on return so he would have quarantine periods on each end of travel to Canada.) If that does not look possible, they will do a zoom meeting.

 

If anyone has anything to add, I would greatly appreciate it.

 

Steve

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