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DJCO - Daily Journal Corporation


Guest hellsten

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Guest hellsten

Latest 10Q is out:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/783412/000143774912008166/djc_10q-063012.htm

 

In February 2009, the Company purchased shares of common stock of two Fortune 200 companies and certain bonds of a third, and during the second and the third quarters of fiscal 2011, the Company bought shares of common stock of two foreign manufacturing companies.  During the first quarter of fiscal 2012, the Company bought shares of common stock of another Fortune 200 company.  During the third quarter of fiscal 2012, the Company purchased additional shares of common stock of one of the foreign manufacturing companies in which it had previously invested.  The investments in marketable securities, which cost approximately $45,121,000 and had a market value of about $94,831,000 at June 30, 2012, generated approximately $1,451,000 in dividends and interest income during the nine months ended June 30, 2012, which lowers the effective income tax rate because of the dividends received deduction.  As of June 30, 2012, there were unrealized pretax gains of $49,710,000 as compared to $24,532,000 at September 30, 2011. Most of the unrealized gains were in the common stocks.

As noted above, however, the investments are concentrated in just six companies.

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Guest hellsten

Latest 10-K:

During fiscal 2012, the Company's cash and cash equivalents, U.S. Treasury Bills and marketable security positions increased by $31,667,000.  Cash and cash equivalents and U.S. Treasury Bills were used primarily for the purchase of marketable securities of $20,961,000 and capital assets of $372,000 (mostly computer software and office equipment).  In February 2009, the Company purchased shares of common stock of two Fortune 200 companies and certain bonds of a third, and during the second and the third quarters of fiscal 2011, the Company bought shares of common stock of two foreign manufacturing companies. 
During the first quarter of fiscal 2012, the Company bought shares of common stock of another Fortune 200 company.
 
During the third and the fourth quarters of fiscal 2012, the Company purchased additional shares of common stock of one of the foreign manufacturing companies in which it had previously invested.
  The investments in marketable securities, which cost approximately $49,692,000 and had a market value of about $102,156,000 at September 30, 2012, generated approximately $1,967,000 in dividends and interest income, which lowers the effective income tax rate because of the dividends received deduction.  As of September 30, 2012, there were unrealized pretax gains of $52,464,000 as compared to $24,532,000 at September 30, 2011.  Most of the unrealized gains were in the common stocks.  During the first quarter of fiscal 2013, the Company borrowed $14 million to purchase all of the outstanding stock of New Dawn and pledged its marketable securities to obtain favorable financing.

 

Did Munger buy BYD? My guess would be yes.

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Anyone else owning this? I bought this simply as an asset play, figured 100M+ portfolio plus 6M+ in cash flow year after year made it a good value at 115M....but Mr Market has not come around to agreeing with me. Might wait a few more mos to see what happens.

 

Let me ask you a question.

a. How much would you pay for a $100 bill plus $6 annual cash flows?

b. Based on your answer in a., what is your expected return on that investment?

 

 

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I would pay no more than 160M....I agree it is undervalued.....I don't want it to stay undervalued. :'(

 

^This buy and hold thing is painful.

 

What kind of returns do you expect to generate over a five year period if you pay $160?

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Roughly slightly less than 10%. That's the max I would pay btw, I paid actually 115M, so basically I was paying 10M (115Mcap-105M Portfolio) for 6M-ish in FCFE.

 

The way I would view it is slightly different. Capitalizing $6 at 10% assumes DJCO will earn $6 for 100 years, which is a high bar for a company with financials' which suggest it is going the other way. I would apply a much higher rate. Not lower than 15%. I would give the $100 a haircut too. That would mean I end up with an intrinsic value of $125 ($90 + $35) at the most. Then I still need to get a margin of safety of at least 10%, so let's say $110.

 

I don't dispute the value of $160, but I don't believe it has the required returns and margin of safety baked in, thereby implying that it is not a investment proposition at that price.

Price is what you pay and value is what you get with rate of return covering the ground in between.

 

Just a different view on what it is worth.

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I own a bit of DJCO.

 

I have watched for a while but haven't really owned up until recently because it's so small and is quite illiquid relative to everything else I own, and because of the cigar butt nature of the traditional biz. 

 

However, I like how Munger and Co are taking advantage of low interest rates to buy a case management system provider that is at worst a cigar butt and, at best, a growth platform.  Moreover, I think there is residual value in the publication brands that is unlikely to be destroyed completely. 

 

Finally, I'm hoping that Mr. Munger is in some of the names I would hope he is in: WFC, BAC, BYD, etc.

 

Really more of an homage to Munger in my own portfolio.  A reminder in some sense.

 

 

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I appreciate the response, if I understood correctly, you subtract out a MoS after you estimate the intrinsic value. I always thought of MoS as something you subtract out of NAV for asset plays, but for operating firms, do you need to subtract a MoS if you already estimate conservative cash flows? I hope I am making sense here.

 

You make a good point regarding its declining earnings. I'll instead capitalize 2M at 10% to get 20M, and add it to the 102M portfolio to get 122M. I suppose I am still under the target price....but it is much lower now. This is not counting portfolio appreciation thanks to Mr Munger.

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I appreciate the response, if I understood correctly, you subtract out a MoS after you estimate the intrinsic value. I always thought of MoS as something you subtract out of NAV for asset plays, but for operating firms, do you need to subtract a MoS if you already estimate conservative cash flows? I hope I am making sense here.

 

You make a good point regarding its declining earnings. I'll instead capitalize 2M at 10% to get 20M, and add it to the 102M portfolio to get 122M. I suppose I am still under the target price....but it is much lower now. This is not counting portfolio appreciation thanks to Mr Munger.

 

I don't think there is a right or a wrong way, but I think it is very important to separate the two concepts. Intrinsic value is discounted cash flows and margin of safety is "excess margin" on top of the intrinsic value. Having said that, is there a difference between investor a. discounting at 20% and another discounting at 10% and requiring a 10% MOS on top of that?

I think the danger is not properly thinking through how you discount, whether you are getting MOS at a certain price and whether the combination gets you to your required return.

 

Applying that to DJCO then when paying x expecting y returns might imply Mr Munger needs to compound the portfolio at 15% where he might only have compounded by 16% historically. However paying x-10% expecting y might imply he has to compound at only 5% versus a historical 16%. So your MOS/certainty of hitting y increases significantly.

 

Another example; discounting a $10 cash stream at 10% leaves you no MOS if you want a 10% return as would paying $91 for a $100 asset.

 

 

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I appreciate the response, definitely a lot to think about. I may exit this opportunity as it doesn't look nearly as attractive on second thought.

 

I am not suggesting you should to that...just that one must think it through properly.

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the investment portfolio of the DJCO continues to grow in the 4th qtr.,... currently at $114m AUM

 

the 10-Q is published...

 

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Daily+journal+&match=contains&action=getcompany

 

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I might add some interesting NAV table from GuruFocus.com, comparing DJCO vs BRK, FFH & Chou Funds

 

http://s18.postimage.org/dakysx561/image.jpg

 

Source: ---> http://www.gurufocus.com/news/158972/yesterday-is-history-tomorrow-a-mystery-now-djco-is-a-present

 

 

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Are you guys concerned with succession for this company at all?

 

We talk about Buffett's age and succession issues but he is 82. Munger is a lot older at 89.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if this gets absorbed into BRK when Munger is gone.  Buffett has been buying up small cheap newspapers... Why not grab this as well?  The holdings are all Buffett holdings anyhow, or at least Buffett approved. The investments could be spun off and distributed or thrown in the BRK pile.

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