Foreign Tuffett Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Net bookings (which I think is the most important single metric to look at here) came in at $6.39 billion for 2019. Management's outlook for bookings in 2020 is $6.725 billion. OK cool, so they are going to grow a bit. Actually not so cool: Net bookings were $6.6 billion way back in 2016, and were $7.16 billion in 2017. So, while the shift to digital has made this a materially better business on a per dollar of revenue basis, the business hasn't grown at all. https://investor.activision.com/static-files/bbb685f7-5ff8-4ea1-a47f-474a0a767a56 Even more, if you go all the way back to 2012, all the revenue growth has come from the acquisition of King Digital in 2015. The Activision and Blizzard segments are both doing less revenue now than they were way back then. https://investor.activision.com/static-files/b4ab4a14-6893-4e5d-bc78-42ffd4f9aa72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The lack of long term revenue growth is the reason I stopped looking at this. It might still be a good investment for others, it's just not attractive to me. FWIW. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just to follow up on my last post, take a look at slide 9 of the 2015 IR Day presentation. https://investor.activision.com/static-files/e8f06cb3-b6f7-4321-a5a3-11aa0ba08ee0 Destiny franchise - ATVI no longer publisher Skylanders - dead Guitar Hero - dead Heroes of the Storm - all but dead Not hard to see why there hasn't been revenue growth. I remember when Activision's "Tony Hawk" games were a big deal, but there hasn't been a new installment since 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 F2P model for the new COD battle royale is a smart move by ATVI. If they are really smart, then they will plan on supporting this ad infinitum, maybe giving special skins and other bonuses to players who buy the new COD game each year https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/9/21171314/call-of-duty-warzone-free-battle-royale-pc-ps4-xbox-one-features-download Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Coddy Johnson being pushed out yesterday is an important development. As well as occupying the second most important position in the company, he was basically Kotick's protege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 F2P model for the new COD battle royale is a smart move by ATVI. If they are really smart, then they will plan on supporting this ad infinitum, maybe giving special skins and other bonuses to players who buy the new COD game each year https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/9/21171314/call-of-duty-warzone-free-battle-royale-pc-ps4-xbox-one-features-download Having played the BR mode a bit now, there are some big incentives for players to own the full CoD game, namely access to fully customized loadouts. I could easily see them keeping the BR mode around perpetually and updating the map and weapons to correspond with whichever CoD title is current. Keeping the BR free to play but having it so that paying for the current CoD title gives those players in the BR a distinct advantage. On the whole I like what they've done with the BR. Crossplay between platforms is well done and allows you to play with anyone, and since I don't believe the BR takes skill into account when placing players into lobbies, crossplay is somewhat more viable than in the actual CoD game. I guess my only complaint is just how long the matches take from clicking start in the lobby to a finish in the top 10 you're looking at 35-40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 There's a growing realization that "social distancing" (aka, everyone is stuck at home) is ratcheting up the amount of time spent playing video games https://newsfilter.io/a/943b58e53b8708a8c32e1944323649d0 https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/16/21181272/steam-concurrent-user-record-set-cs-go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 There's a growing realization that "social distancing" (aka, everyone is stuck at home) is ratcheting up the amount of time spent playing video games https://newsfilter.io/a/943b58e53b8708a8c32e1944323649d0 https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/16/21181272/steam-concurrent-user-record-set-cs-go That is very likely right. I'm just not sure that I'd invest based on this. Nimble traders might profit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 I don't think that it will contribute much to profits here. Most gamers just play more of the games they already have, and all of this is very temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 I realized that I might benefit a bit from this via Tencent, YY, NTES positions. Still not planning to buy much more in this space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Chairman of the Board Brian Kelly just sold ~ $27 million in stock. This was a good play on the "no one can leave the house so people will play lots of video games" setup, but I think it's quite fully valued here. Looks like Kelly agrees with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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