thepupil Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 $170B MCAP, $160B EV. Tell me why I'm insane to consider starting to short this thing at 21X trailing sales. 8 years to present days Google financials at a 30 PE ( present day google multiple) gets me to a 9.8% return. Does that say "priced in" or am I lacking vision here? At what Price/Sales, Price/Earnings, % of Google (which itself does not appear exceedingly cheap), nominal market cap, $ of market cap / $ of global advertising spend, whatever preferred metric do you think about shorting this. If you shorted Cisco at 18 in November of 1998, you saw that thing go to $77 before collapsing and being dead money for sixteen years... Who is up for sitting on some lit rockets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 ^Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 $170B MCAP, $160B EV. Tell me why I'm insane to consider starting to short this thing at 21X trailing sales. 8 years to present days Google financials at a 30 PE ( present day google multiple) gets me to a 9.8% return. Does that say "priced in" or am I lacking vision here? At what Price/Sales, Price/Earnings, % of Google (which itself does not appear exceedingly cheap), nominal market cap, $ of market cap / $ of global advertising spend, whatever preferred metric do you think about shorting this. If you shorted Cisco at 18 in November of 1998, you saw that thing go to $77 before collapsing and being dead money for sixteen years... Who is up for sitting on some lit rockets? If your primary thesis is overvaluation, look at some of the SAAS names - WDAY (41x LTM rev), FEYE (62x), DATA (24x), SPLK (35x), for example. Simply being overvalued is a dangerous thesis upon which to short, however. One potential catalyst I could see working against FB is the growing suspicion that click farms and other illicit methods are creating false hype and woefully overestimating ROI from advertising dollars spent on FB's platform. No idea how/when this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 $170B MCAP, $160B EV. Tell me why I'm insane to consider starting to short this thing at 21X trailing sales. 8 years to present days Google financials at a 30 PE ( present day google multiple) gets me to a 9.8% return. Does that say "priced in" or am I lacking vision here? At what Price/Sales, Price/Earnings, % of Google (which itself does not appear exceedingly cheap), nominal market cap, $ of market cap / $ of global advertising spend, whatever preferred metric do you think about shorting this. If you shorted Cisco at 18 in November of 1998, you saw that thing go to $77 before collapsing and being dead money for sixteen years... Who is up for sitting on some lit rockets? What do you think Instagram's valuation is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 More info on the fake likes issue: http://pando.com/2014/02/17/quantifying-facebooks-problem-with-fake-brand-likes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Palantir, I've yet to join the fun. Jschemb's, I am all too aware of the dangers of valuation based shorts (see TSLA). I like that Facebook is huge and can't get taken out. For now I have no thesis, but am just starting to look at it. ValueInv: I assume the value of instagram is captured in Facebook's earnings???? I don't understand the question. As for Facebook, they just paid $16B for What's App, $12B is with stock. The company is clearly willing to use its stock as currency. The bear in me says that means it's expensive. The paranoid person in me says they can issue their way to growth and keep that game up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-19/facebook-to-buy-mobile-messaging-app-whatsapp-for-16-billion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Now the Message Is a Facebook Medium WhatsApp Shows That for Facebook, Size Really Matters http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393671576066400?mod=WSJ_HOS_LeadStory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I love using Whatsapp. But paying that kind of money for it is sheer lunacy. I think I'll continue to place my bet on Apple for the long run. They are excellent stewards of capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Don't know if you guys saw this: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/02/facebook-buys-whatsapp-for-19-billion.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Thanks for the link. Isn't zuckerberg's net worth over $40b now? In 50 years he could be a trilionaire by investing it wisely in the stock market. He could then spend close to $300M a day if he lived another 10 years. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Facebook to Acquire Virtual Reality Company for $2 Billion Facebook agreed to pay $400 million in cash and 23.1 million shares of the company's stock. At Tuesday's close of $64.89, the stock portion would be worth $1.5 billion. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303949704579461812019189626?mg=reno64-wsj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 John Carmack now works for Facebook. What a strange world we live in ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 John Carmack now works for Facebook. What a strange world we live in ??? Doom fan I see, Liberty? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 John Carmack now works for Facebook. What a strange world we live in ??? Doom fan I see, Liberty? ;) I still have the box of the original on the shelf next to my desk 8) http://i.imgur.com/GfM14st.jpg Spent countless nights in LANs with my friends, I even built my own DOOM and Quake maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 ^Nice. Another Doom fan here. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 haha. I played Doom 3 but I was more of a console guy growing up. Gotta love some Perfect Dark and Halo. By the way, thanks for showing your artistic abilities with the alien with...braces? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Facebook to Acquire Virtual Reality Company for $2 Billion Facebook agreed to pay $400 million in cash and 23.1 million shares of the company's stock. At Tuesday's close of $64.89, the stock portion would be worth $1.5 billion. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303949704579461812019189626?mg=reno64-wsj Hmm, so assuming $0.25 on the dollar of IV, FB really paid about $800 million of IV for Oculus Rift. Might not be such a bad deal, actually, compared to the WhatsApp purchase if FB starts going the AI/AR route a la GOOG. It's a little creepy, though, that they are looking to buy drones at the same time. Ender's Game, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 hmmm will Oculus Rift have similar fate as webtv or broadcast.com? sure VR will prob succeed in the future but will it be Oculus Rift? will it be now? is this the time or are we too early? hy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Facebook spends cash like they're using toy money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Seems like a bargain compared to the Whatsapp acquisition. I think they're trying to diversify as much as possible. And doing it quickly while the stock is at a ridiculous price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Well, the momentum game is f*cked if they can't please the market with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Anyone still holding this? Congrats, this idiot sold in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikenhe Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Anyone still holding this? Congrats, this idiot sold in the 20s. Sold in the 20s? I guess thats the price of experience!!! I didn't buy at all! It could be me who is the idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I bought a small stake in FB recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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