FB - Facebook

[johnny]

Agreed on all points. I just doubt it's going to buy them much quarter in the short term (while making the wormcan bigger in the long term). The tech-adjacent liberals I know haven't stopped blaming them for 2016, and their considerable efforts to Make It Right in 2020 don't seem to have been appreciated by their critics.

 

Still holding, just a very weird and unstable situation.

[Spekulatius]

Agreed on all points. I just doubt it's going to buy them much quarter in the short term (while making the wormcan bigger in the long term). The tech-adjacent liberals I know haven't stopped blaming them for 2016, and their considerable efforts to Make It Right in 2020 don't seem to have been appreciated by their critics.

 

Still holding, just a very weird and unstable situation.

 

There was no talk about interference or other issues in the latest election regarding Facebook.

 

The stuff that doesn’t happen is often more important than the stuff that does happen. People love firefighters but there are no monuments for folks who prevented fires. The absence of any news in my opinion means that Facebook must have done some thing right.

[ukvalueinvestment]

I totally agree.  Facebook seem to have managed the last 3 months well in terms of being the lightning rod for criticism.  And at some point the events of 2016 will fade from the memory...

[DooDiligence]

Agreed on all points. I just doubt it's going to buy them much quarter in the short term (while making the wormcan bigger in the long term). The tech-adjacent liberals I know haven't stopped blaming them for 2016, and their considerable efforts to Make It Right in 2020 don't seem to have been appreciated by their critics.

 

Still holding, just a very weird and unstable situation.

 

There was no talk about interference or other issues in the latest election regarding Facebook.

 

The stuff that doesn’t happen is often more important than the stuff that does happen. People love firefighters but there are no monuments for folks who prevented fires. The absence of any news in my opinion means that Facebook must have done some thing right.

 

Good point.

 

Smokey the Bear says, "only you can prevent forest fires"

 

Not to shift the blame from social media, but maybe a revamp of K-12 would be a good start? No immediate results for shareholders, but...

[chrispy]

Does anyone have experience with Shops or know anyone that has used it (facebook or instagram)?

[arcube]

+1

Like him or not, Zuck made a strategic move ensuring longevity of his business in it's current form.

 

I really couldn't disagree more. With no satisfying underlying principle guiding this decision, this is absolutely not ensuring the longevity of -anything- in its current form. We're still in a state of complete disequilibrium, and Facebook remains a big juicy target for Ambitious Regulators, Aspiring (or Degrading) Politicians, and Culture Warriors. All we've done is reaffirm that the social media empires are taking more seriously their holy role in deciding what thoughts are permissible, no longer worried about exercising any humility due to the social status of the Thinker.

 

That said, I don't think the decision makes any of this worse. It is probably a tactically clever thing--ban POTUS when there isn't enough time on the clock for the full legal issues to flesh themselves out, while everybody is too busy with A Crisis of Something Else to focus on litigating it in public, but giving yourself something to point to to show you weren't Complicit during the Age of Orange Hitler.

 

So, as far as what it means for the value of the business? Probably not huge, maybe a very slight positive? But considering how monumental this shit is at the layer of "society", I'd say the civilizational uncertainty makes me wanna dial the correct multiple for everything back a bit.

[johnny]

There was no talk about interference or other issues in the latest election regarding Facebook.

 

Sure there was, it was just celebratory and positive since it was The Good Kind of Interference And Other Issues:

 

Facebook's Effort to Suppress the Hunter Biden NY Post Story Gave it Half the Reach of Major Anti-Trump Scoops

https://www.newsweek.com/facebooks-effort-suppress-hunter-biden-ny-post-story-gave-it-half-reach-major-anti-trump-scoops-1539954

 

I'm not saying they didn't do the correct strategic thing here--I just think the underlying phenomenon here are so insanely complex that trying to game this stuff out 8 years is butterfly-effect territory. And like I said, I don't think they're getting that much credit from liberals for this very hard work.

 

Look at what's going on right now: Facebook and Twitter are banning the sitting President, who just two months ago got 74 million Americans to vote for him. And the polite society consensus is that they should have done this 10 years ago and any delay is inexcusable and impermissible. This is not a stable situation, and I don't think we should be too complacent about the precarious political position Facebook will remain in for the remainder of its existence.

[Spekulatius]

There was no talk about interference or other issues in the latest election regarding Facebook.

 

Sure there was, it was just celebratory and positive since it was The Good Kind of Interference And Other Issues:

 

Facebook's Effort to Suppress the Hunter Biden NY Post Story Gave it Half the Reach of Major Anti-Trump Scoops

https://www.newsweek.com/facebooks-effort-suppress-hunter-biden-ny-post-story-gave-it-half-reach-major-anti-trump-scoops-1539954

 

I'm not saying they didn't do the correct strategic thing here--I just think the underlying phenomenon here are so insanely complex that trying to game this stuff out 8 years is butterfly-effect territory. And like I said, I don't think they're getting that much credit from liberals for this very hard work.

 

Look at what's going on right now: Facebook and Twitter are banning the sitting President, who just two months ago got 74 million Americans to vote for him. And the polite society consensus is that they should have done this 10 years ago and any delay is inexcusable and impermissible. This is not a stable situation, and I don't think we should be too complacent about the precarious political position Facebook will remain in for the remainder of its existence.

 

Well, maybe Trump should open a TikTok account. That would be the ultimate irony

[MattR]

Does anyone have experience with Shops or know anyone that has used it (facebook or instagram)?

 

One of my best friends uses it on Facebook. He said it's not great, but it is getting quite a lot of updates to get better. Just like stories on Instagram pretty much deleted Snapchat from my circle of friends  -  I believe that Zuckerberg will rise to the ocation here as well. For me at current prices Facebook is a bit too expensive, but there is no doubt that Zuckerberg is one of -  if not the best CEO of all the big companies in America (even if I don't agree on a lot of points with him)

[Aurelius]

As i was out walking yesterday I happened to walk past (overtaking) two women talking about another girl who recently got back into dating.

 

Women 1: “…so she opened the dating option on facebook and was inundated with 3500 requests”!

Woman 2: That’s a lot!!! Is there a dating thing on facebook?

Woman 1: “yeah apparently… so a girlfriend came over and they selected 300 potential suitors.

Woman 2: “that’s still alot”!!!

 

Two immediate lessons:

-facebook dating can’t be a total disaster

-women have more choices than men (I) can even comprehend! lol ;D

[DooDiligence]

As i was out walking yesterday I happened to walk past (overtaking) two women talking about another girl who recently got back into dating.

 

Women 1: “…so she opened the dating option on facebook and was inundated with 3500 requests”!

Woman 2: That’s a lot!!! Is there a dating thing on facebook?

Woman 1: “yeah apparently… so a girlfriend came over and they selected 300 potential suitors.

Woman 2: “that’s still alot”!!!

 

Two immediate lessons:

-facebook dating can’t be a total disaster

-women have more choices than men (I) can even comprehend! lol ;D

 

The odds are good but the goods are odd...

[DooDiligence]

Does anyone have experience with Shops or know anyone that has used it (facebook or instagram)?

 

I have a neighbor who uses Facebook to do weekly vacation rentals of their place. They've been doing this for years now, and the property has stayed booked constantly.

 

When someone makes a rental request, they look at their feed and if they like it, they rent. If they see a bunch of craziness, no rental for you.

 

They live in Atlanta and have family members do the cleaning & a lawn service for the yard.

 

They have been refusing renters since hurricane Sally, which damaged the roof & resulted in water intrusion. They were here a week ago to oversee repairs, and told me the place is booked starting this Spring and through the end of the year. I see many of the same renters from year to year.

 

It's very high touch property management / marketing, but they save the commissions and more importantly, they never have damages from fools renting from them.

[Spekulatius]

Does anyone have experience with Shops or know anyone that has used it (facebook or instagram)?

 

I have a neighbor who uses Facebook to do weekly vacation rentals of their place. They've been doing this for years now, and the property has stayed booked constantly.

 

When someone makes a rental request, they look at their feed and if they like it, they rent. If they see a bunch of craziness, no rental for you.

 

They live in Atlanta and have family members do the cleaning & a lawn service for the yard.

 

They have been refusing renters since hurricane Sally, which damaged the roof & resulted in water intrusion. They were here a week ago to oversee repairs, and told me the place is booked starting this Spring and through the end of the year. I see many of the same renters from year to year.

 

It's very high touch property management / marketing, but they save the commissions and more importantly, they never have damages from fools renting from them.

 

The social feed tells anyone who looks at it a lot about who you are and it’s hard to fake. I have used the FB Market Place and found it to be much better than the anonymity of Craigslist for that very reason.

 

I thought the dating part of FB is not widely realized - did thet change? I don’t see a dating tab on my Facebook app and there doesn’t seem to be an app either. I am not looking at odd goods right now but they spurred my curiosity.

 

@Johnny - yes Trump getting the ban hammer in Twitter and Facebook is a watershed moment. I am not sure what to make of it. There is the argument that both platforms are still private property and there is a viewpoint there they are public utilities. Right now, the status is not well defined, Imo but that needs to change.

 

Google’s threatening to ban Parler for lack of moderation is even more far reaching.

[DooDiligence]

Does anyone have experience with Shops or know anyone that has used it (facebook or instagram)?

 

I have a neighbor who uses Facebook to do weekly vacation rentals of their place. They've been doing this for years now, and the property has stayed booked constantly.

 

When someone makes a rental request, they look at their feed and if they like it, they rent. If they see a bunch of craziness, no rental for you.

 

They live in Atlanta and have family members do the cleaning & a lawn service for the yard.

 

They have been refusing renters since hurricane Sally, which damaged the roof & resulted in water intrusion. They were here a week ago to oversee repairs, and told me the place is booked starting this Spring and through the end of the year. I see many of the same renters from year to year.

 

It's very high touch property management / marketing, but they save the commissions and more importantly, they never have damages from fools renting from them.

 

The social feed tells anyone who looks at it a lot about who you are and it’s hard to fake. I have used the FB Market Place and found it to be much better than the anonymity of Craigslist for that very reason.

 

I thought the dating part of FB is not widely realized - did thet change? I don’t see a dating tab on my Facebook app and there doesn’t seem to be an app either. I am not looking at odd goods right now but they spurred my curiosity.

 

@Johnny - yes Trump getting the ban hammer in Twitter and Facebook is a watershed moment. I am not sure what to make of it. There is the argument that both platforms are still private property and there is a viewpoint there they are public utilities. Right now, the status is not well defined, Imo but that needs to change.

 

Google’s threatening to ban Parler for lack of moderation is even more far reaching.

 

Some form of regulation needs to evolve, and that's an extremely difficult landscape to navigate. Whatever gets enacted will need to be able to morph in an intelligent fashion as mistakes get made and better methods are discovered. Attempts by extremists on the far sides to politicize legislation are, and will remain, huge.

 

https://stratechery.com/2020/twitter-responsibility-and-accountability/

 

IDK about calling search or social media "utilities". Maybe I'm just having trouble with a label that I've been accustomed to seeing define a specific set of businesses? Kind of like how some people think when they hear the words "liberal" or "socialism", but without the radicalized, dog whistle response. Take away FB & Google and you can still hydrate and then poop & pee in a nice warm bathroom. Now that's utility  ;D  (why is there no grunt & groan emoji?)

[bizaro86]

If you define utility as, "a natural monopoly that essentially everyone uses" then it's not such a reach. Those characteristics are why utilities have attracted regulation in the past.

[DooDiligence]

If you define utility as, "a natural monopoly that essentially everyone uses" then it's not such a reach. Those characteristics are why utilities have attracted regulation in the past.

 

Point well taken. I apologize for being obtuse and for the weak attempt at humor.

[bizaro86]

If you define utility as, "a natural monopoly that essentially everyone uses" then it's not such a reach. Those characteristics are why utilities have attracted regulation in the past.

 

Point well taken. I apologize for being obtuse and for the weak attempt at humor.

 

No apology necessary. I think utility style regulation is a potential risk here.

 

But I also think regulating speech is a potentially dangerous path. The two top contenders for the role (the government and big silicon Valley corporations) both seem like the potential start of a dystopian movie to me.

 

And yet, if you let a platform become lowest common denominator, then everyone but the lunatic fringe will leave. I don't know what the business solution is here - maybe algorithm changes such that you can say what you want with minimal limits, but the reach of comments that are tasteless is limited?

 

I dont know what the solution is, but it seems like an important question for FB.

 

I'd also be interested if anyone is seeing pushback on the whatsapp move to share data with FB. That wasn't previously required to use the service and now it is.

[patience_and_focus]

This is interesting and ironic

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/technology/whatsapp-privacy-changes-delayed.html

 

Also, I can confirm that move away from WhatsApp is real. Multiple of my colleagues with families in India (WhatsApp's biggest user base) were surprised that their parents and relatives (all over 60 years) were suddenly on "Signal" sending invites to them. Younger generation is switching faster. Now will they dump WhatApp completely remains to be seen.

 

Disclosure: Was invested in Facebook but sold all of the position end of July last year.

[Spekulatius]

This is interesting and ironic

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/technology/whatsapp-privacy-changes-delayed.html

 

Also, I can confirm that move away from WhatsApp is real. Multiple of my colleagues with families in India (WhatsApp's biggest user base) were surprised that their parents and relatives (all over 60 years) were suddenly on "Signal" sending invites to them. Younger generation is switching faster. Now will they dump WhatApp completely remains to be seen.

 

Disclosure: Was invested in Facebook but sold all of the position end of July last year.

 

I bought back in FB as I think this will blow over. The move from FB regarding privacy changes actually sense and doesn’t really affect the user privacy, but they have some PR work to do.

The backslash become viral and is real and needs to be dealt with, which is what thy are doing.

[ourkid8]

This is starting to get interesting at the current price.  My only concern is the upcoming iOS14 changes but overall its really cheap for it's growth. 

[KCLarkin]

This is starting to get interesting at the current price.  My only concern is the upcoming iOS14 changes but overall its really cheap for it's growth.

 

Uggh. I might be forced to make this a full position.

[kab60]

Lots of ways to win here, Zuckerberg seems like a great CEO, I just always struggle with the durability of their platforms, and M&A is obviously a no-go. How do you get comfortable with FB being as dominant ten year down the line?

[Castanza]

Lots of ways to win here, Zuckerberg seems like a great CEO, I just always struggle with the durability of their platforms, and M&A is obviously a no-go. How do you get comfortable with FB being as dominant ten year down the line?

 

Agreed,

 

The social media market is anything but solidified. It's been around slightly more than a decade and I cannot say I feel confident in staying power for any of the large companies. Look at the past 4 years and how many new names have entered the market and garnered meaningful user bases.

 

Facebook and Instagram feel "tired" which is an anecdotal observation. On the flip side, the business is running like a top currently.

[LC]

Isn't facebook creating "Facebook Campus" which is just for students only?

 

In other words, the current Facebook is creating the previous Facebook. Presumably because the current Facebook is no longer appealing to this segment (which is a highly valued segment, unlike say the 50+year olds sharing pinterest posts about braising vegetables)

[Arski]

My opinion about Facebook is that they have great management and very creative people. Mark is definitely aware of the bear case for FB.

 

They are likely to search for more diversified instruments within their network (for example the marketplace within the Facebook app and going deep in IG shopping, payments etc.).

 

Their network is, right now, is just so incredible and I don't know exactly what kind of opportunities, but there are a lot of opportunities with billions of people on your social media apps.