Guest valueInv Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here ya go: http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/23/wall-streets-happy-facebook-climbs-nearly-10-in-after-hours-trading/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BTW, ROI is measured on FB: "Return on investment for advertisers buying through FBX is so good, that if all of Facebook’s ad inventory were sold with re-targeting, instead of user data targeting, Facebook would be able to charge 3X the price it charges for ads right now.” CPA on FBX is 3x – 6.5x lower compared to other exchanges (Triggit – FBX ad agency)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Of course you can measure ROI on any online advertising platform. You've clearly never advertised online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, whaddayya know, ad prices increased 7%: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/facebook-shares-soar-after-beating-estimates-on-mobile-gains.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 http://observer.com/2012/09/broken-on-purpose/ Author claims that social media deliberately create "broken user experiences" to extract more revenue. In the case of Facebook, it's forcing people with fan pages to pay to reach their fans using "sponsored posts". Some people are okay with it Some people are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think this deserves a re-look. It seems that they've changed their business model to focus more on retail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Different CPC trend than Google, huh? http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/28/new-facebook-mobile-ads/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmattporter Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... COBAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... COBAF? corner of berkshire and fairfax. -I think there could be some great long-term value of FB. Don't understand what's wrong with discussing it here. If you think it's overvalued, you can discus it here as a short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I am looking at this....I have looked at the space as I posted a short arguement against Groupon at $20. For all that are bashing and running...I will give you a real life lesson for me with regards to Google. I am a value investor and immediately dismissed the Google ipo and everything about the company. I had computer genius friends plead with me on the value of the company and it's growth. The numbers were mind boggling. No one could grow that fast! They would be a fad...deflationary etc. Since then they have out $50 billion in cash in the company! I bought Google at $270 during the crash and sold it too early of course...ipo price was $80... now at $670 or somewhere around there. I used it I knew it and I dismissed because I was too lazy to see if it was a value investment...guess what it was. Munger has said that it has one of the biggest moats around.... Keep in mind I bought Fairfax at $80 and sold at $400... That was value! But it was a gut wrenching hell of a ride! Why did I not buy the best company in the world and watch it grow? Buffett does this and has for 35 years.... He was buying tv stations and abc etc...when radio was moving to tv...he was paying 4 times revenues...that is what Google trades at now... Face book's numbers are staggering... I will post on that soon... The question is...Does Facebook have a lasting moat? Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... Things that aren't traditional "value" plays can also be good investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... COBAF? corner of berkshire and fairfax. -I think there could be some great long-term value of FB. Don't understand what's wrong with discussing it here. If you think it's overvalued, you can discus it here as a short. It seemed undervalued when it was sub $20/sh, but I (along with presumably many other investors) thought it was too much of a crapshoot. Lesson learned: when everyone has a preconceived notion of a certain business but isn't spilling out facts to back it up, it can be a profitable endeavor to re-evaluate that notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Why is Facebook on COBAF? Isn't this a value forum? bush-league... COBAF? I think it is way too early to make that call. Let's see where it is in a few years to see if 20 was a good deal. corner of berkshire and fairfax. -I think there could be some great long-term value of FB. Don't understand what's wrong with discussing it here. If you think it's overvalued, you can discus it here as a short. It seemed undervalued when it was sub $20/sh, but I (along with presumably many other investors) thought it was too much of a crapshoot. Lesson learned: when everyone has a preconceived notion of a certain business but isn't spilling out facts to back it up, it can be a profitable endeavor to re-evaluate that notion. I think it is way too early to make that call. Let's see if $20/share was a good deal in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Lesson learned: when everyone has a preconceived notion of a certain business but isn't spilling out facts to back it up, it can be a profitable endeavor to re-evaluate that notion. +1000!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How much does it cost to get a billion people to put their personal information on your website and have 40% chance to go on the website today on their desktop...a 70% chance of going on it if they are mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How much does it cost to get a billion people to put their personal information on your website and have 40% chance to go on the website today on their desktop...a 70% chance of going on it if they are mobile. It isn't about creating a website or spending money. Facebook has a moat in the same way Coke does. After all anyone can create a sugary carbonated beverage, with KO it is about the brand, not the product. How much money would it take to unseat Coke and build your own soda brand to replace it. It is almost incalculable. Facebook's moat is based somewhat on its brand, but more on its user base. Google created a social network in Google+, which in my opinion is more functional, easier to use and is better in almost every way. Why then do I still use Facebook and my g+ account sits there unused for months on end? Because all of my friends and family are on Facebook and can't be bothered to change. As long as "everyone" is there, the moat remains and the more users they accumulate the moat deepens. You will not lure people away with a website that is a little better. They would need an overwhelming reason to change. This gives Facebook some room for trying different ways to monetize its users without fear that it will tick them off so much they will leave...within limits, of course. I haven't looked into FB too much as an investment idea. Maybe I should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think the same thing....family and friends...are you really going to take the effort to move all Your information? For what? I like the coke analogy...but I think the more prominent comparisons is Microsoft. We heard for ever that their products sucked...yet they dominated for decades...they would be gone etc...Google would then lose to Microsoft.. Google is trying to on seed Facebook as is myspace etc...my question again is can Facebook be unseeded. If you are buying now...it is the intrinsic value of the brand you are buying... I would never have imagined Google being a $225 b market cap....I can imagine Facebook being there...because their size and reach is unmatched by anything I have seen. They have $10b in cash in the bank as well...that helps. Our culture is now used to being monetized...it is not like it used to be...if the moat remains a 10 year old could monetize it. The moat is the key. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I like the coke analogy...but I think the more prominent comparisons is Microsoft. Yes Microsoft is a good analogy. They dominated PC operating systems (because everyone used it, not because the product was all that great) and that continues to this day. They haven't been able (yet?) to dominate what came next however (tablets, smart phones, etc) and may end up only a minor player in that space. I think FB will dominate social media, maybe for decades. They will be a powerhouse until social media is replaced by whatever comes next. The moat is the key. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Dazel, hmmm, monetization is no a trivial thing. i think its harder and harder to monetize. hy I think the same thing....family and friends...are you really going to take the effort to move all Your information? For what? I like the coke analogy...but I think the more prominent comparisons is Microsoft. We heard for ever that their products sucked...yet they dominated for decades...they would be gone etc...Google would then lose to Microsoft.. Google is trying to on seed Facebook as is myspace etc...my question again is can Facebook be unseeded. If you are buying now...it is the intrinsic value of the brand you are buying... I would never have imagined Google being a $225 b market cap....I can imagine Facebook being there...because their size and reach is unmatched by anything I have seen. They have $10b in cash in the bank as well...that helps. Our culture is now used to being monetized...it is not like it used to be...if the moat remains a 10 year old could monetize it. The moat is the key. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I like the coke analogy...but I think the more prominent comparisons is Microsoft. Yes Microsoft is a good analogy. They dominated PC operating systems (because everyone used it, not because the product was all that great) and that continues to this day. They haven't been able (yet?) to dominate what came next however (tablets, smart phones, etc) and may end up only a minor player in that space. I think FB will dominate social media, maybe for decades. They will be a powerhouse until social media is replaced by whatever comes next. The moat is the key. Agreed. FB is a network effects business - the value of the network increases with the square of its size. It would be incredibly difficult to create another social network to displace FB. Take a look at G+'s performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Facebook has very strong moat. No doubt about that. But what do you guys think about the new threats ? The social platform in mobile phone such as Tencent's WeChat (~200 million users) , NHN's LINE (~80 million users) . They might looks like just a mobile chat application at a first glance .But there are a lot more functions resemble to social networking (games , timeline ,etc. ) I noticed that I spend more time using LINE than Facebook a few month back. And almost 95% of my friends using it now. And unlike Facebook, mobile platform is easier to monetize . "Our first goal is to exceed Facebook,” said NHN Japan CEO Akira Morikawa. In April, " http://emisare.visibli.com/share/f5B8al http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/nhn-line/ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/technology/chinese-messaging-app-gains-ground-elsewhere.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I find twitter infinitely more valuable, even LinkedIn. But I'm just one datapoint. And it is not clear to me that these services would or could supplant Facebook for most users. Monetization is what matters. To make an investment decision here involves 1) estimating growth/atrophy of the user base and then 2) estimating the relative likelihood of several monetization scenarios and seeing what that means to the bottom line. Number 2 - monetization - is the main driver, the key unknown, and therefore the place to expend the most effort. Anyone care to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Search. They have 1 billion search's a day on their own website...Without a search engine set up. Zuckerberg has pointed this out...I would expect one soon. Disclosure: we have bought some recently....speculative. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm long a small position in Facebook. A little less than 5%, with a stop 10% below today's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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