Liberty Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 https://medium.com/a-programmers-tale/f7b8c66109ea https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5811564 Posting this because it's good food for thought, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Liberty, If I scrolled down I can find 4 stories I actually care about, from a list of about 30. That is pretty good signal to noise in my opinion. :) More importantly, I think that most of his arguments were just as relevant 5 years ago so why now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HJ Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Liberty, If I scrolled down I can find 4 stories I actually care about, from a list of about 30. That is pretty good signal to noise in my opinion. :) More importantly, I think that most of his arguments were just as relevant 5 years ago so why now? I don't have a strong view on this thing one way or another, but I think one thing different today from 5 years ago is that everybody's pretty much all experienced it today vs. 5 years ago, when there are plenty of people who have yet to enjoy the thrill of reconnecting with long lost friends, and communicating with them in a new way. The movie did wonders to drive activities, I think. Now we find out how "faddish" this activity really is, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 big story today on BGR: facebook is for old people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 big story today on BGR: facebook is for old people. You mean, the kind that have money to spend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 big story today on BGR: facebook is for old people. You mean, the kind that have money to spend? they will simply move on the next cool thing, after their kids find it. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 big story today on BGR: facebook is for old people. You mean, the kind that have money to spend? they will simply move on the next cool thing, after their kids find it. :) Yeah, I heard a lot of them are using Bang With Friends now. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 this is not exactly the best capital allocation. http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/04/zynga-shuts-down-omgpop-one-year-after-acquiring-it-for-200m/ to put this in perspective, Buffett for years bought companies in this price range that spit off $15m of fcf in year 1 that tended to grow at least as fast as inflation over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 oops. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/22/business/facebook-says-technical-flaw-exposed-6-million-users.html?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Hellooooo Youtube: http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/02/instagram-video-shows-the-right-way-to-make-a-big-product-shift/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 http://techcrunch.com/2013/07/24/facebook-q2-earnings-beats-with-1-81b-in-revenue-up-53-mobile-hits-41-of-ad-revenue/ Up 14% afterhours. Doesn't seem to be a problem monetizing mobile here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I. Sold. Too. early. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Still hold mine. Hope to hold for a loooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 big story today on BGR: facebook is for old people. Big story today: Facebook is also for advertisers: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323971204578628252225861688.html Stock up almost 30% yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Now at 748x earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 They actually make a lot more money than that. You need to get past the funky accounting. If they make $1.4B in profit/year, then the P/E is 59. It's high but not that high. There are dubious Web 2.0 companies out there... I don't think that Facebook is one of them. Facebook is a very serious advertising platform and the company generates a lot of value for its advertisers. The ads work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 There are dubious Web 2.0 companies out there... I don't think that Facebook is one of them. Facebook is a very serious advertising platform and the company generates a lot of value for its advertisers. The ads work. My girlfriend (digital ad analyst) says otherwise...and that FB does not treat their clients (i.e. advertisers) well. Regardless, I have no idea if FB is here to stay or if it will eventually go the way of myspace. Not my cup of tea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Regardless, I have no idea if FB is here to stay or if it will eventually go the way of myspace. Not my cup of tea! congrats. you get an A from Buffett in his valuation classroom. Anybody trying to value this flunks. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 My girlfriend (digital ad analyst) says otherwise...and that FB does not treat their clients (i.e. advertisers) well. When I look on Facebook, I see a lot of people tracking their results. These guys presumably measure their ROI and are making a profit from Facebook advertising. It's not like the early days of Internet advertising and banner ads where it took a while for advertisers to figure out their ROI was negative. Regardless, I have no idea if FB is here to stay or if it will eventually go the way of myspace. Yeah I don't know either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
collegeinvestor Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The earnings yield on this stock does not compensate for the risk taken by owning this company at current prices. Where is the book value? How much could they sell Facebook to another large tech company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The earnings yield on this stock does not compensate for the risk taken by owning this company at current prices. Where is the book value? How much could they sell Facebook to another large tech company? How do you know the EY does not compensate for the risk? How do you quantify the risk? Why is book value relevant? I think it's here to stay. Myspace and FB are apples and oranges. Then again, it's hard for me to remember what the internet was like before Facebook. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I think it's here to stay. Myspace and FB are apples and oranges. Then again, it's hard for me to remember what the internet was like before Facebook. :) ruppert murdoch bet hundreds of millions of $$ that myspace was "here to stay". Unfortunately he got involved in a business that changes rapidly and is impossible to predict more than 24mo out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I think it's here to stay. Myspace and FB are apples and oranges. Then again, it's hard for me to remember what the internet was like before Facebook. :) ruppert murdoch bet hundreds of millions of $$ that myspace was "here to stay". Unfortunately he got involved in a business that changes rapidly and is impossible to predict more than 24mo out. Or maybe News Corp mismanagement ran MySpace to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The earnings yield on this stock does not compensate for the risk taken by owning this company at current prices. Where is the book value? How much could they sell Facebook to another large tech company? How do you know the EY does not compensate for the risk? How do you quantify the risk? Why is book value relevant? I think it's here to stay. Myspace and FB are apples and oranges. Then again, it's hard for me to remember what the internet was like before Facebook. :) Why do you think it's here to stay? I honestly would love to be convinced. I think Facebook, as the hub for online social interaction, would be a great investment if it could be monetized without degrading quality. As long as it is the "hub", it has value. Determining whether it will remain the hub in 20 years is a very difficult question to answer, so if you have some compelling reasons I would love to hear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Primarily because: [*]It is a good product that people like using, the interface is clean, smooth, and functional. [*]The content on there is interesting - staying in contact with your friends, stalking photos of gir.... [*]It is useful, and a substantial upgrade in doing things, useful for everyday life, useful for advertising, etc. [*]There are strong network effects, one cannot simply start up a rival social network and expect it to work. [*]More subtly, it is a platform rather than a product, if a new, interesting product emerges, they can absorb it by plugging into the platform. [*]It is addictive. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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