Jurgis Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Way OT. Removal from index will not happen for megacaps except possibly removal from DJIA, but I doubt there is much money in DJIA funds. Removal from SP500 happens on the lower fringes. So we are not talking Exxon, but rather CHK, ENDO, DISCA, URBN ( see http://slickcharts.com/sp500 or similar ). So, yeah, if CHK gets kicked out, it may go down more, but then companies are usually kicked out because they went way low already, so I am not sure the effect will be very big. I guess the spinoff effect should strengthen if the spinning company is in index, but spinoff isn't. Even more so if company before spinoff is in index but afterwards neither part is. So wait for spinoff price drop before buying. Anyway, these are just potential icing on the cake for people picking the spinoffs or companies dropping out. Nimble traders could try to sell (or short?) spinoffs as they occur and pick them back later once the index funds dump. That might be complicated by funds preselling and doing other things to lower the impact of the selloff due to removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Looking at http://www.horizonkinetics.com/articles.asp?pageID=5 , I am not very happy about the continuous index/ETF dissing. OK, I understand these guys are not happy about indexes/ETFs, index/ETF performance and overvaluation. Personally, I think their time would be better spent on figuring out what to do in current environment instead of writing missives to the misguided (?maybe?) index/ETF/dividend investors. Maybe they feel this is their civic duty, but IMO it's not and IMO it's not very productive. BTW, I don't think this applies to just FRMO. I think the same about Pabrai's recent talk and I think Watsa had some complains about overvaluation of FANG/unicorns too. At least Watsa spends way more time on Fairfax's businesses and investments. We'll see how things look when FRMO reports annual results. Agree with you Jurgis - it comes off a bit obsessed... They aren't simply lamenting general over-valuation and complaining that they can't find underpriced securities. They are explaining the mechanics ofmoney flow in the ETF world, and how it impacts everything from spin offs, to volatility, to owner-operators and that these are the places that they feel have a decent shot at of finding undervalued securities. They talk a good talk like most investment managers. Unfortunately their results aren't a lot better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 annual report is out: http://www.otcmarkets.com/financialReportViewer?symbol=FRMO&id=158396 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Looks pretty bleh from the first glance, although I guess the question is how the underlying values of investments listed at cost have changed. I guess people will say that FRMO is all about optionality, but some of these nickel-and-dime investments look too small to matter. Perhaps they are waiting for crash and good opportunities. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Looks pretty bleh from the first glance, although I guess the question is how the underlying values of investments listed at cost have changed. I guess people will say that FRMO is all about optionality, but some of these nickel-and-dime investments look too small to matter. Perhaps they are waiting for crash and good opportunities. :-\ Probably waiting for Sears to finally work out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 I guess people will say that FRMO is all about optionality, but some of these nickel-and-dime investments look too small to matter. Perhaps they are waiting for crash and good opportunities. :-\ This is what I think is happening as well. It's a very large position of mine and I'm starting to get frustrated. Investing $75k in some option exchange is not going to make a difference. The other thing that bothers me is that they are claiming they could not buy more for FRMO because only a small amount was being offered, but they bought personal stakes in the hard asset fund and the bitcoin company (possible some of the others). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 I feel like this is going to be a stupid question, but does anyone know why Winland Electronics (WELX) is down 30% today? No filings or news releases, a few Google searches didn't pull up anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Might be a dump by someone. Looks like 6K shares into illiquid market, then 1.5+1.2K. Whether the seller knows something... who knows. That's always the risk with illiquid microcaps. These dumps might be buying opportunity - or time to sell... ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Ah the fun of illiquid nanocap investing. You coulda grabbed the WELX shares yesterday and made 20% in one day... ;) 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 I did :) Unfortunately couldn't get many shares though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Good for you. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 http://www.ticker.com/index.php?page=mutual_funds&id=1045&next=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Transcript from annual meeting: http://frmocorp.com/_content/letters/2016_FRMO_Transcript.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Some of their arguments are pretty nice summary for nanocap investing that people like oddballstocks are doing. But I really don't see any of this translating into good results for FRMO. There's good talk, but I don't see good walk. Maybe it's all hidden behind Horizon Kinetics though: i.e. maybe HK is doing well, but that doesn't transfer to FRMO visibly. If they really like some nanocap stocks, why don't they buy them for FRMO directly? Is it because they want separation from HK and so they don't want to invest in public equities on FRMO side? Though it seems they do: there's WELX, for example... So then why not buy the really cheap "off-index" securities if they really believe they are cheap and mispriced? Bitcoin stuff - well, I know there are people here who love this, but I don't. IMO this is a waste of their time and not gonna contribute to their results. Yeah, I know "optionality" and all that. Same as grain exchange, options exchange, etc. None of these have been contributing much if anything to FRMO recently. And then a bunch of whining about indexes and zero interest rates. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fowci Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Something I find frustrating about these guys is that they seem to have been ahead of the curve on cryptocurrencies, but they only put $76k into "Digital Currency Group". From 2016 letter: Among the Digital Currency Group’s (“DCG”) assets, it owns Grayscale, which operates the Bitcoin Investment Trust (symbol: GBTC). DCG operates Genesis, which is a cryptocurrency trading firm. It also operates CoinDesk, which is a cryptocurrency news and research company. DCG also takes minority positions in a variety of cryptocurrency-related companies. One of these is Bitpay, which is a bitcoin payment service provider. Another is Elliptic, which identifies illegal activity on the bitcoin blockchain. Another investment is in Coinbase which, among other offerings, provides insured electronic wallet services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 There's also Bitcoin investment within HK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Some of their arguments are pretty nice summary for nanocap investing that people like oddballstocks are doing. But I really don't see any of this translating into good results for FRMO. There's good talk, but I don't see good walk. Maybe it's all hidden behind Horizon Kinetics though: i.e. maybe HK is doing well, but that doesn't transfer to FRMO visibly. If they really like some nanocap stocks, why don't they buy them for FRMO directly? Is it because they want separation from HK and so they don't want to invest in public equities on FRMO side? Though it seems they do: there's WELX, for example... So then why not buy the really cheap "off-index" securities if they really believe they are cheap and mispriced? Bitcoin stuff - well, I know there are people here who love this, but I don't. IMO this is a waste of their time and not gonna contribute to their results. Yeah, I know "optionality" and all that. Same as grain exchange, options exchange, etc. None of these have been contributing much if anything to FRMO recently. And then a bunch of whining about indexes and zero interest rates. ::) +1 PS. What's also quite funny is that Lawrence J. Goldstein who is a director of FRMO is quite active on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/user/358136/comments When I wrote my (somewhat skeptical) article about FRMO on SA he wrote this gem (and some others) in the comments: Putting your grey matter to work is of course difficult for you one can readily observe and understand. Contrast that with being Stahl and Bregman with over $52 million putting their grey matter to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nebraska Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Latest annual report and shareholder letter are out. http://www.frmocorp.com/_content/letters/2017.pdf http://www.frmocorp.com/_content/10k/FRMO_Annual_Report_2017.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 This should be posted here (and might explain recent FRMO runup): https://www.barrons.com/articles/q-a-why-a-value-investor-decided-to-buy-bitcoin-1511810246 (thanks mcliu for posting the link in http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/do-you-think-bitcoin-is-a-safe-store-of-value/380/ ). Disclosure: I sold FRMO near this year's bottom. No plans to buy back. No plans to participate in this thread, so the above is just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fowci Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 FRMO on an absolute tear lately. I guess it's all the crypto hype. I've had a big position since 2014 and overall it had done pretty poorly until about 2 months ago. I sold about half my position about 6 months ago, but the piece of kept is now a top performer. Thinking I'll sell soon, and count myself lucky I captured some of the bitcoin gains. But then again, maybe that's dumb? Seriously, what Stahl and Bregman have pulled off with FRMO is nothing short of genius. Two hardcore value guys have an incredible first few years, then stagnate a little, then somehow pick the least value-like asset (at least superficially - I'm sure they'd disagree) with the greatest historical gains in the history of financial markets. Sure they weren't that early, but they were early enough. That's pretty damn impressive - maybe I'm selling BRK in 1980... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I am in the exact same boat. Essentially the thesis I bought for hasnt been the catalyst and appears unlikely to play out. I held it for the optionalility but didnt expect this bitcoin like response for such a small allocation. Im going to take the 100% gain money off the table and then allow the house money to ride long term. You can bank on the holding being quite shareholder friendly long term and the optionality should remain. FRMO on an absolute tear lately. I guess it's all the crypto hype. I've had a big position since 2014 and overall it had done pretty poorly until about 2 months ago. I sold about half my position about 6 months ago, but the piece of kept is now a top performer. Thinking I'll sell soon, and count myself lucky I captured some of the bitcoin gains. But then again, maybe that's dumb? Seriously, what Stahl and Bregman have pulled off with FRMO is nothing short of genius. Two hardcore value guys have an incredible first few years, then stagnate a little, then somehow pick the least value-like asset (at least superficially - I'm sure they'd disagree) with the greatest historical gains in the history of financial markets. Sure they weren't that early, but they were early enough. That's pretty damn impressive - maybe I'm selling BRK in 1980... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Revenue share for FRMO should be pretty good this year: Kinetics Internet Was No. 1, Up 56.9%, Boosted by Bitcoin https://www.wsj.com/articles/kinetics-internet-was-no-1-up-56-9-boosted-by-bitcoin-1515381121 The fund’s 56.9% return over 12 months beat its nearest rival, Morgan Stanley Multi Cap Growth (CPOBX), by more than 11 percentage points, one of the widest such gaps in recent Winners’ Circle history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fowci Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 FRMO on an absolute tear lately. I guess it's all the crypto hype. I've had a big position since 2014 and overall it had done pretty poorly until about 2 months ago. I sold about half my position about 6 months ago, but the piece of kept is now a top performer. Thinking I'll sell soon, and count myself lucky I captured some of the bitcoin gains. But then again, maybe that's dumb? Seriously, what Stahl and Bregman have pulled off with FRMO is nothing short of genius. Two hardcore value guys have an incredible first few years, then stagnate a little, then somehow pick the least value-like asset (at least superficially - I'm sure they'd disagree) with the greatest historical gains in the history of financial markets. Sure they weren't that early, but they were early enough. That's pretty damn impressive - maybe I'm selling BRK in 1980... Sold half my position at 12.25 today. Will watch the rest with interest, but probably won't sell near-term. I'm counting this as me getting lucky on the btc bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'm thinking of doing the same. Maybe sell off a bit this and OSTK because of the rapid run up. However, just as I've held BRK since the early 1990s, I've had similar 'confidence' that this too could be a long-term holding. Moreover, I've often sold just to take profits and then regretted the action. Bought things like Intuitive Surgical at $40 and sold everything on a quick double, only to miss what has turned into a 10-bagger. (I've done this far too often with small holdings that I don't get a thorough and deep enough knowledge of there businesses' to just stick with the company.) That said, would love to gain a deeper understanding of FMRO so thank you to all who post to this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HJ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Looking at this whole VIX fund products blowing up reminded me that these guys have been shorting these path dependent ETF's. Not that I know what position they have in this space at the moment, but say they are shorting the VIX ETF and the inverse VIX ETF in some ratio, and now one of them (the inverse one) just went to zero, and you can't get enough borrow to rebalance the other leg of the trade. So now you have to go buy the other one back, which then triggers put buying. Pure baseless speculation on my part, but figure to think out loud here and maybe get a chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now