fwallstreet Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I have been since the analyst day. Timing isn't my forte, but I don't really care at these prices! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbr Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I'm still waiting. I have established a rule for myself when additional buying is an option: As soon as I think it's a good time to add I wait a couple of weeks, because I tend to underestimate the negativity of market participants. Especially when my cash levels are low I think I can afford to wait and potentially get a better price at the cost of missing an opportunity from time to time. Also I think "great companies" can be bought sooner when their stock price declines, because they probably wont go down that much when they are already reasonably priced or cheap. On the other hand turnaround companies are - from my experience - met with great skepticism and the stock price seems to lag the progress (because of recency bias). So just because things are looking good from your "value perspective" doesnt mean that the stock cannot go down even further or do nothing for months. So a bit of doing nothing seems like the right initial move when the stock goes into decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 I'm still waiting. I have established a rule for myself when additional buying is an option: As soon as I think it's a good time to add I wait a couple of weeks, because I tend to underestimate the negativity of market participants. Especially when my cash levels are low I think I can afford to wait and potentially get a better price at the cost of missing an opportunity from time to time. Also I think "great companies" can be bought sooner when their stock price declines, because they probably wont go down that much when they are already reasonably priced or cheap. On the other hand turnaround companies are - from my experience - met with great skepticism and the stock price seems to lag the progress (because of recency bias). So just because things are looking good from your "value perspective" doesnt mean that the stock cannot go down even further or do nothing for months. So a bit of doing nothing seems like the right initial move when the stock goes into decline. I agree and have some general rules of thumbs...if a company is trading at a substantial discount to my judgement of IV, say greater than the majority of my current holdings, then it obviously has merit to become a big portion of my portfolio. Let's say it has the potential to become 20-30% or so of the portfolio. But I don't buy it all at once...I leave room to average down. So I'll buy a 2.5% position, think, ponder, relax about it because I own some so even if I "miss out" on a chance to buy at lower prices I can still participate on the way up. But it leaves me a lot of room to average down. I did this with Fiat when it was in the $6-7 range. Bought an initial position around $6, the price would increase to $6.75, I'd buy a little bit, it would fall back to $6, I'd buy more, etc. as it bounced around...buying tiny amounts when it increased to ~$7 and larger amounts when it would fall closer to $6. I got the idea from someone here who mentioned placing three orders in a position: your initial purchase (33%), a portion to trade (33%), and a portion to double down if/when the stock tanks on its road to IV (33%). So let's say we're a real diehard value investor and our timeframe is 5+ years. And the stock trades at a 50%+ discount to IV. That is quite a bit of time to both average down and buy on the way up to when it trades at 80-90% of IV. I learned the lucky way not to fill a huge position all at once. Lucky in that the price went up after I purchased and didn't offer an opportunity to average down, but it made me feel stupid realizing I needed to improve that skill because I gave up all my optionality at once, right off the bat. I learned to be more thoughtful about it. Buffett as well "buys on dips" or so I've heard, slowly accumulating a position. No need to fire off all the bullets in the elephant gun (potato launcher in my case) at once. So as for now, I'll take a tiny tiny bite again and see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Ferrari’s $288,000 458 Speciale Defies Physics http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/ferrari-s-288-000-physics-defying-458-speciale-zips-past-excess.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Fiat Chrysler CEO: Please Don't Buy Fiat 500e Electric Car http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/05/21/business/21reuters-chrsyelr-ceo-evs.html?src=busln "I hope you don't buy it because every time I sell one it costs me $14,000," he said to the audience at the Brookings Institution about the 500e. "I'm honest enough to tell you that." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compounding Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Fiat Chrysler CEO: Please Don't Buy Fiat 500e Electric Car http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/05/21/business/21reuters-chrsyelr-ceo-evs.html?src=busln "I hope you don't buy it because every time I sell one it costs me $14,000," he said to the audience at the Brookings Institution about the 500e. "I'm honest enough to tell you that." This appears to be some of the video from that interview: http://search.autonews.com/v/92273696/marchionne-gm-had-edge-5-21-14.htm Interesting quote: "We wouldn't have saved Chrysler without Sergio" Nice to know that Sergio had some "skin" in the game with the bailout as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Here's the full video: Haven't watched it (really long), but it looks like Marchionne might come onto the panel a bit later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Here's the full video: Haven't watched it (really long), but it looks like Marchionne might come onto the panel a bit later on. thanks txlaw very much for the Video :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Here's the full video: Haven't watched it (really long), but it looks like Marchionne might come onto the panel a bit later on. thanks txlaw very much for the Video :) No prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Here's the full video: Haven't watched it (really long), but it looks like Marchionne might come onto the panel a bit later on. Thanks! For those who want to read a transcript http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2014/5/21-auto-bailout/20140521_auto_bailout_transcript.pdf Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwallstreet Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Ira Sohn presentation http://www.scribd.com/doc/225812634/Michael-Guichon-Sohn-Conference-Presentation-Fiat-Chrysler-Automobiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Ira Sohn presentation http://www.scribd.com/doc/225812634/Michael-Guichon-Sohn-Conference-Presentation-Fiat-Chrysler-Automobiles thanks fwallstreet :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karthikpm Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 It is old- from 2012 ( I think they just reposted it). There are newer versions of this on the Greenwood website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 CEO on CNBC http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000276554 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 It is old- from 2012 ( I think they just reposted it). There are newer versions of this on the Greenwood website Michael Guichon's Ira Sohn presentation seems to be current as they refer to Consensus as of 5/2/14 in a footnote on page 2. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Fiat Chrysler says performance of US operations crucial http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiat-chrysler-says-performance-us-160537410.html Turnaround Maestro Marchionne Must Now Focus on New Cars http://finance.yahoo.com/news/turnaround-maestro-marchionne-must-now-220001154.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 CEO on CNBC http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000276554 Fiat Chrysler says performance of US operations crucial http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiat-chrysler-says-performance-us-160537410.html Turnaround Maestro Marchionne Must Now Focus on New Cars http://finance.yahoo.com/news/turnaround-maestro-marchionne-must-now-220001154.html thanks for posting :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karthikpm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chrysler-may-us-vehicle-sales-up-17-to-194421-units-2014-06-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Pretty cool Chrysler 200 commercial: http://www.autonews.com/article/20140606/RETAIL03/140609871/chrysler-spot-pitches-the-200-and-the-workers-who-make-it?cciid=email-autonews-daily&r=2994C8377578D8V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/maserati-said-to-lift-car-production-20-on-ghibli-demand.html :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/maserati-said-to-lift-car-production-20-on-ghibli-demand.html :) Awesome. I've been noticing a lot of Maseratis in different television shows. It looks like their marketing team is doing a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Fiat Chrysler Names First 86 Alfa Romeo Dealers in North America http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/06/10/business/10reuters-fiat-alfa-america.html?src=busln&_r=0 The first 86 dealerships to relaunch the sporty Alfa Romeo brand in North America, most of them now selling Fiat cars, were announced on Tuesday by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. The 83 Fiat dealerships and three Maserati dealerships will be the first to sell the limited-edition Alfa Romeo 4C sports car later this year. It is the first time new Alfa models will be sold in North America since 1996. Last month, Fiat Chrysler said it would increase its sales in the United States and Canada from zero to 150,000 in just four years. Analysts scoffed at that projection, saying that the company's plans to bring eight new models to market by the end of 2018 was too ambitious to be realistic. Fiat Chrysler Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne said that the company will be successful and much stronger than it is today even if it misses the target for Alfa Romeo sales, part of a plan to increase overall sales to 7 million by 2018 from 4.4 million last year. “This group of dealers represents the first phase in the Alfa Romeo dealer network selection process,” Peter Grady, head of network development for Chrysler Group LLC, which is based in Michigan, said in a company statement issued on Tuesday. Grady said that eventually there will be more than 300 Alfa Romeo franchises in North America. The number of dealerships selling Alfa Romeo will grow later this year, Grady said. In the next several years, Alfa is expected to introduce more affordable models to its North American lineup. A limited-edition 4C is expected to cost $70,000 or more, and the more traditional version of the 2015 Alfa Romeo 4C $65,000 or more. States with the most Alfa Romeo stores in the first wave will be California with 12, Texas with 10 and Florida with nine. Four will be in Canada. In May, there were 344 Fiat dealers in North America and 91 Maserati dealerships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Nice pictures www.alfaromeo.com.au/giulietta/gallery :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Pretty amazing to see workers striking at the Maserati plant in Italy. One of the few bright spots in the car industry in Europe. Maybe, I'm drinking the management kool-aid…. http://www.fiatspa.com/en-US/media_center/FiatDocuments/2014/Giugno/Spokesperson_declares_union_strike_at_Maserati_incomprehensible.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Maybe it was a nice day and they did not feel like working... Now 11 foreign buyers have to wait 1 day longer for their Maserati. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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