cmlber Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 IIRC shareholder structure would prevent this. State of lower saxony owns a golden share and majority votes controlled by Porsche and Piech families. I was debating if Sergio should go after VW. It's kinda in a tailspin with it's desiel issue and Sergio would fix it like what he has done in Fiat, Chrysler, etc.... and he get the global platform that he needs. I personally think it's a win-win... and he wouldn't have to keep pestering GM. Not unfathomable that he could get VW interested in purchasing Fiat. Fiat is ridiculously cheap and VW has terrible NAFTA and SUV exposure, two big holes Fiat would fill. It would give VW the best CEO in the business and change the VW story from diesel scandal to industry consolidator with massive scale advantage and best in class management. For those saying the unions would be opposed to a merger, if GM and FCAU merged, the combined entity would have significantly more profit to capture in labor negotiations. Does it really alter the negotiating power of the union that much to have 2 companies instead of 3? Where does that provide leverage to the automakers? It's not like FCAU employees can all decide to leave and go work for GM if FCAU doesn't give them a fair deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Forgive me if this has been covered before. I'm starting to get very interested in FCAU, but am not sure about the valuation on Ferrari. Still need to do a lot of work on this but it seems like FCAU is trading ex Ferrari/DTAs around 3x - 4x earnings (rough calc's, please don't berate me if I'm wrong, even though I would deserve it for being lazy). Would it make sense to short 1 share of RACE for every 10 long FCAU if you wanted to hedge out the Ferrari exposure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Earnings will be good...Ferrari's as well...market has not looked at RACE's pre announcement of growth because no one actually counts these days. I am more interested in what Sergie says on the call as now that Race is done he has many good opitons. GM is a stalking horse...Fiat will remain in a European companies hands...so split up is likely inevitable. If there is no merger takers at a reasonable price you will see Chrysler get spun off as "Jeep" as the new symbol. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Market did not like the recall charge!!! Cheaper now...:) conference call highlight for me was Sergio's explanation to Bloomberg when asked on GM and industry consolidation and the comment that he must be happy that he was gaining traction because he had made contact with others in the industry on consolidation: "Our board has been in discussions about this for a long time.... look you guys are asking the wrong question on the who or the when on industry consolidation....I can tell you that I have spoken with others who share my view on this... whether they are the right partner for us I do not know yet...is it this quarter or is it in the next 3 quarters I do not know...but I have told you I am positive it will happen. The industry does not make sense without sharing capital expenditures.( I agree) .Ferrari is likely to be spun out the first business day of 2016..Jan 4....his view on regulation was the reason for the large charge a cost that he said would have to be passed on...in my view FCA is for sale in whole and or part....it makes sense Speculation: He spent a lot of time talking about Volkswagen and how much he has respected them over his career in the industry...and the confidence he had in their ability to rebound-I found that odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Hi Dazel Do you have link for conference call or a transcript. FCA had a link for analyst call on Nov 5.Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Hi Dazel Do you have link for conference call or a transcript. FCA had a link for analyst call on Nov 5.Thanks in advance I was as puzzled as you. I eventually found it by going through Ferrari. http://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/investor_relations/events_presentations/Pages/quarterly_results_presentations.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Thanks for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Anyone know where I can get an audio file of the Investor day from 2014? Unfortunately i can't find it. Is there a good source to get these generally? I used to have access through FactSet but alas no longer. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_triece Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Anyone know where I can get an audio file of the Investor day from 2014? Unfortunately i can't find it. Is there a good source to get these generally? I used to have access through FactSet but alas no longer. Thank you. Here you go.Fiat_Chrysler_Automobiles_N.V._BIT-FCA_May-06-2014_-_Audio.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurpaul88 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Anyone know where I can get an audio file of the Investor day from 2014? Unfortunately i can't find it. Is there a good source to get these generally? I used to have access through FactSet but alas no longer. Thank you. Here you go. Thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Anyone know where I can get an audio file of the Investor day from 2014? Unfortunately i can't find it. Is there a good source to get these generally? I used to have access through FactSet but alas no longer. Thank you. Here you go. Hi big_triece, I just started to listen to this and realized this audiofile starts at the end of the investor day with the 1Q15 results, the 4 year plan and Q&A. Any chance you have the remainder of the presentation in audio? Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_triece Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Anyone know where I can get an audio file of the Investor day from 2014? Unfortunately i can't find it. Is there a good source to get these generally? I used to have access through FactSet but alas no longer. Thank you. Here you go. Hi big_triece, I just started to listen to this and realized this audiofile starts at the end of the investor day with the 1Q15 results, the 4 year plan and Q&A. Any chance you have the remainder of the presentation in audio? Thank you very much. I'm sorry, I should have listened to it before posting. I downloaded it from CapIQ, and this was the only audio file it had for the investor day. If I can track down the rest of the file, I will post it. Apologies again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I listened to the conference call on FCA's website...not sure if it is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Dazel, are you a new FCAU shareholder? I'm curious how long you've been an owner. I've followed your comments in other threads (Pico, Altius, etc.). What got you interested in Fiat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I definitely wasn't able to find the audio on thomson streetevents or their website or anywhere else. They do have the slides on the website still though. I did find a video of the press Q&A they did after the investor day posted on LiveStream. I would love to hear the investor day from 2014, but unfortunately I can't find it anywhere. Not sure if the whole thing on FactSet or not. Just generally, does anyone know besides Thomson/CapIQ/FactSet, is there a good place that retail investors can get this stuff (whether on a free or paid basis)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/jeep-sales-keep-soaring-as-shoppers-dismiss-poor-quality-ratings?cmpid=yhoo.headline LC, Yes I am...Ferrari backed out of FCA makes it one of the cheapest stocks in the market place....even if you discount the value of Race on its own...but as Mario Gabelli said on Friday...I see Race rising on the royalty of using the Ferrai brand name in other products which does not take away from the value of the brand it will increase it.... all eyes are on Ferrari and Jeep is klling it and no one is really noticing it...like the headline above...its the fastest selling suv in the best auto market in the world right now...but it is poor quality? How about it is the highest margin auto product and the brand is iconic. I see Sergio getting very busy....auto parts spin out is likely for around $3b....reduced capex on alpha Romeo...which will lead to buy backs or a sale of the company in whole or in part. Without it, the company will become very profitable in 2016....but I see catalysts for sure. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philly value Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Has anyone seen or made estimates regarding a breakdown of the financials by brand? Trying to do a SOTP particularly for a downside case in which a lot is zeroed out besides Jeep, Ferrari, RAM, and the parts business. My understanding is only a regional breakdown is available but wanted to ask. From rough math, there are clearly ways to lose money here, up to let's say 30-40% downside from current prices, but that requires a series of pessimistic valuations and a lot of zeros for different units. I think in a true downside case there is also a possibility that certain units may have negative value, i.e. investments being made in a turnaround or brand revitalization that could fail. With Alfa Romeo as precedent at this point as a significant investment has been made and the payoff unclear. But it seems appropriate to ignore the possiblity of negative value from a given segment if zeroing out many different ones; presumably some of those segments will in reality have positive value to offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 No sign of Maserati seems suspect in your valuation exercise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philly value Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 No sign of Maserati seems suspect in your valuation exercise Think it's fair to say that there is a lot of uncertainty in Maserati's value and the recent performance isn't inspiring. In a base or upside case there is significant value particularly if the Levante takes off - but in crafting a serious downside case for the company it seems to me that Maserati is a place to cut the assumptions a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 http://www.oakmark.com/Commentary/Oakmark/Oakmark-Fund-Second-Quarter-2015.htm I agree with Bill Nygren...who has $4 euros a share earnings in 2018...with Ferrrai stripped out you are looking less than 2 times earnings...anywhere close to that makes it the cheapest stock that I see around...with a brand like Jeep and the global growth target for 2018 confirmed by Sergio on the conference...when he said " the 1.9m annual units of jeep shipments by 2018 looks a little light"..... the fact is that I think we will be sold in whole or in part by then...which will makes s less money but it will be an excellent return with very little downside risk.... Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 No sign of Maserati seems suspect in your valuation exercise Think it's fair to say that there is a lot of uncertainty in Maserati's value and the recent performance isn't inspiring. In a base or upside case there is significant value particularly if the Levante takes off - but in crafting a serious downside case for the company it seems to me that Maserati is a place to cut the assumptions a lot. As far as I know management was expecting weakness in the numbers after the recent incredible growth they had in the last few years. I think their strategy going forward is pretty clear however to capture all segments of their respective markets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philly value Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 No sign of Maserati seems suspect in your valuation exercise Think it's fair to say that there is a lot of uncertainty in Maserati's value and the recent performance isn't inspiring. In a base or upside case there is significant value particularly if the Levante takes off - but in crafting a serious downside case for the company it seems to me that Maserati is a place to cut the assumptions a lot. As far as I know management was expecting weakness in the numbers after the recent incredible growth they had in the last few years. I think their strategy going forward is pretty clear however to capture all segments of their respective markets... It was a pretty serious decline going from 90mm EBIT last year to 12mm in Q3, and down from 210 to 90 over the first 9 mos of the year. From the CC comments Sergio seems to admit things were taken a bit too fast in ramping up. Qualitatively the story appears to make sense for there to be several billion in value at Maserati within the next several years, but again I just think in crafting a SHTF scenario it is one of the levers to flex downward a lot versus a brand like Ferrari, for sure. The point being of course if you can zero out so many different "stories" where there is expected to be a lot of value, and yet the result would not be a disaster, then that's reassuring. Based on the work I've done so far I think a ~$10 downside, $25-30 base case are reasonable numbers and if you really believe in a flawless execution of the plan, the upside is on the order of what greenwood has put out, at ~$50. Which put it all together makes a $14-15 price look quite attractive. On the other hand, maybe one of the difficulties I see is that timing will matter here, because while the stock will surely go up if earnings surge as expected under the plan, it's harder to build in a near-term target for the market multiple going up substantially. While there is nothing wrong with holding an undervalued business for a long period of time, given the mediocre returns on capital associated with this industry (although if you had to pick a capital allocator in the industry Sergio would be the guy) , it is not clearly as attractive as a long-term buy and hold versus a play on the market getting the valuation wrong / company taking moves to realize the SOTP value. Ferrari was of course one lever, the parts side is probably the next, not clear after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Does anyone still need a call transcript? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Philly Value, I agree with a lot of what you have said....the third quarter report was obvious in pointing out that 2/3's of the revenue from the parts division was outside of the FCA group. This signals to me that they are preparing for the sale of the unit for around $3b as rumoured in the summer...this along with the Ferrari lever will allow FCA the ability to buy back cheap stock and or look more attractive to an acquirer on the balance sheet side. With Ferrari gone and capex being cut for Maserati and Alpha...Jeep will be in focus and rightly so as it is the cash cow....earnings will rise significantly but I do not see us hitting the $50 target...I think we will be acquired before that. Now that the Ferrari spin off is done..stock to be distributed the first business day of 2016 according to Sergio on the CC..."all" options are open. An aside...I followed Ackman into GGP many moons ago...when GGP spun out HHC it looked like it had a rich valuation as it owned high end development property in Hawaii and New York...it went up more than 5 times after the spin out...while I do not see Race doing that I think it will do well on its own which is not a shared view in the market place. The key to spin outs and value using levers you need an operator like Ackman...I think Sergio is solidifying his name as an incredible jockey and one of the best deal makers in the world he is the greatest lever to me as his retirement is pending in 2018...I expect fire works on his way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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