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Great NPR interview

 

At the end of the interview,  Sergio talks about IPO. I had not thought of the possibility of a joint IPO/Fiat listing in US with some of the cash going to Veba trust and Fiat owing 100% of Chrysler.

It could be a win/win situation with Veba getting some cash and equity and Fiat would have less cash outlay.

However equity valuations are poor.

 

Sergio has a history of good capital allocation skill. We will see his financial engineering skill also.

 

Any thoughts ?

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Great NPR interview

 

At the end of the interview,  Sergio talks about IPO. I had not thought of the possibility of a joint IPO/Fiat listing in US with some of the cash going to Veba trust and Fiat owing 100% of Chrysler.

It could be a win/win situation with Veba getting some cash and equity and Fiat would have less cash outlay.

However equity valuations are poor.

 

Sergio has a history of good capital allocation skill. We will see his financial engineering skill also.

 

Any thoughts ?

 

I interpreted that exchange differently:

 

MONTAGNE: There is talk, now, of Chrysler going public, selling shares so that you might say any American can invest in Chrysler's success. Is that something you would look forward to?

 

MARCHIONNE: What I really would like to do is to give an opportunity to America investors to buy shares in the combined Fiat/Chrysler. How that happens, I don't know, so give me some time. I need to figure it out.

 

I thought he was implying that he doesn't want the IPO to go forward and, instead, wants Fiat to wholly own Chrysler and trade on the American exchanges. 

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Great NPR interview

 

At the end of the interview,  Sergio talks about IPO. I had not thought of the possibility of a joint IPO/Fiat listing in US with some of the cash going to Veba trust and Fiat owing 100% of Chrysler.

It could be a win/win situation with Veba getting some cash and equity and Fiat would have less cash outlay.

However equity valuations are poor.

 

Sergio has a history of good capital allocation skill. We will see his financial engineering skill also.

 

Any thoughts ?

 

I interpreted that exchange differently:

 

MONTAGNE: There is talk, now, of Chrysler going public, selling shares so that you might say any American can invest in Chrysler's success. Is that something you would look forward to?

 

MARCHIONNE: What I really would like to do is to give an opportunity to America investors to buy shares in the combined Fiat/Chrysler. How that happens, I don't know, so give me some time. I need to figure it out.

 

I thought he was implying that he doesn't want the IPO to go forward and, instead, wants Fiat to wholly own Chrysler and trade on the American exchanges.

 

I share your perspective. That said, Fiat got a great deal in Chrysler. He obviously doesn't want to dilute or sell Fiat's stake, and how can I blame him?

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Alfa Romeo brand to re-enter U.S. market in late 2013

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130119/RETAIL01/130119802#ixzz2IU5TADeB

 

The Alfa Romeo brand will re-enter the U.S. market late this year with its 4C sports car, Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne said Friday.

 

Increasing Alfa's sales is a cornerstone of Marchionne's plan to cut losses at Fiat in Europe by 2015.

 

"For sure it's coming back this year with the 4C. With the Alfa Romeo 4C," Marchionne said after a speech to a Detroit businesswomen's group. "We are finalizing the car now, so it should be here this year."

 

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Jeep is a monster brand, and now with global distribution.

 

"On the key products, I'm maxed out," Marchionne said in an interview. "We're investing now in de-bottlenecking all this. Anybody that supplies components to the Grand Cherokee is being pushed to increase capacity. Same thing with people that make Wrangler components."

 

Jeep set a global sales record last year of 701,626 units, besting the previous record of 675,494 set in 1999. But Marchionne said supplier constraints cost the company as many as 70,000 additional sales.

 

"I didn't sell all the Grand Cherokees I could have sold. I didn't sell all of the Wranglers that I could have sold because I couldn't make them. There was a natural limitation to my ability to compete," Marchionne said.

 

That will change in 2013, the CEO promised. Chrysler previously projected to deliver 2.6 million vehicles in 2013, up from 2.4 million in 2012. But Marchionne said adding another 200,000 units for the coming year is not enough. "We're going to try and push beyond 2.6 million in 2013. We've got a lot of work to do here, but the machine needs to be pushed," he said. "No vacations. No breaks."

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Top Chrysler Group executives took responsibility for the 2013 Dodge Dart's sluggish sales start but said they have "a lot of levers" available to boost sales. The Dart compact sedan, developed jointly by Chrysler and Fiat, finished the year with 25,303 U.S. sales over seven months. Dealers complained last year that the first Darts had only manual transmissions, reducing the number of early shoppers they could take on test drives. Though a six-speed automatic transmission was available at dealerships weeks later, the optional European dual-dry clutch automatic gearbox in some Dart models did not meet American driving tastes.

 

Chrysler-Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne, in an interview last week, took responsibility for the Dart's launch, saying the powertrain decisions were his. A new nine-speed automatic will be unavailable in the Dart until later this year at the earliest, he said. "I decided I was going to put a European transmission into the car because I was going to try to teach Americans how to get [better] fuel mileage," Marchionne said.

 

Dodge brand chief Reid Bigland said Dart sales could be better, but he's not worried. "I'm OK where I'm at because there are a lot of levers that are available to me to jolt that volume," Bigland said. He said Dart average transaction prices are "just shy of $22,000," and that incentives have been "very conservative."

 

Bigland urged patience, especially as the newly announced Dart GT, with a more powerful 2.4-liter engine and more standard features, begins production in April. Said Bigland: "This thing's headed in the right direction, but there are certainly some opportunities to continue that growth and a number of levers that have yet to be pulled."

 

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Chrysler near a deal for preferred lender http://www.autonews.com/article/20130121/RETAIL07/301219989#ixzz2IcvshShS

 

Marchionne said at the Detroit auto show last week that the agreement would allow Chrysler dealers to increase shoppers' leasing options, which in turn can boost vehicle sales by qualifying more consumers for financing.

 

"We understand that there's a piece of the market that we're not currently accessing," Marchionne said. "Whether we do it directly or 100 percent through a provider or in a combination with other sources, it really doesn't matter. But we'll be there."

 

Reid Bigland, head of U.S. sales, said Chrysler has some leasing programs in place but they account for only 10 to 13 percent of U.S. sales while the industry average is about 20 percent. "I think in any arrangement that we put forward, it will have a leasing element," he said. "How much leasing is just going to kind of depend on the dealers and the market."

 

The arrangement would only cover sales in the United States, not in Canada.

 

Under previous owner Cerberus Capital Management, Chrysler abruptly ended leasing in July 2008 when financing through Chrysler Financial, Chrysler's former captive finance arm, evaporated. Without leasing options, sales of Chrysler vehicles fell sharply.

 

 

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MILAN -- Chrysler Group expects to make at least 100,000 Jeeps in China soon after production starts in 2014, Reuters reported. Output could double quickly, Chrysler-Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne said, without giving a precise time frame.

 

Chrysler, in which Fiat has a 59 percent stake, has agreed to make Jeeps in China with Guangzhou Automobile Group. "We expect production of around 100,000 Jeeps per year, which is expandable to 200,000," Marchionne said here at an industry conference, adding that production could start in 18 months.

 

In 2012, General Motors and Volks-wagen AG each sold more than 2.8 million cars in China, the world's largest vehicle market, together accounting for more than 29 percent of China's total vehicle sales of 19.3 million, according to consulting firm IHS Global Insight. Jeep, Chrysler and Fiat sold just over 60,000 cars in China last year

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Good long article by the Financial Times on Fiat's plans. I would not have said "salvation" though.

 

Fiat looks to luxury for salvation

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b88c25e2-5b3c-11e2-8d06-00144feab49a.html#slide0

 

On its side, Fiat, with its expertise in small cars Punto and Panda, is seen as being in a position to benefit as the premium car market has moved down into smaller cars.

 

Maserati, which like Alfa Romeo has a strong but small fan base, stands a chance of enticing consumers with its promise of a price of $130,000 and engines made under the auspices of Ferrari – Fiat’s most exclusive marque – compared with a starting price of around $270,000 for a Ferrari 458 Italia

 

Fiat’s platform-sharing with Chrysler and the US group’s experience in making bigger cars is also considered an advantage, especially for the development of Alfa Romeo, which has consistently failed to live up to its promise in past relaunches. Chrysler’s success with Jeep is leading the way. It sold 700,000 cars in 2012, it was announced earlier this month, nearly doubling its sales in Asia.

 

Nonetheless, analysts say Mr Marchionne and his team are playing a high-stakes game in trying to develop a cadre of luxury car brands against the might of German carmakers in just a handful of years, a short timeframe for the premium segment.

 

Fiat wants to grow its sales of Maserati nearly 10-fold to 50,000 in the next three years, with 300,000 for Alfa Romeo. It planned to invest €7.5bn in 2012, €7.5bn to €8.5bn this year and €8.5 to €9.5bn in 2014 as it focuses on the shift into premium.

 

BMW started to build its premium brand reputation in the 1970s and 1980s. Audi’s shift to premium brand status took VW 15 years of investment to achieve, while it took a decade to turn around Porsche.

 

“It is about aspiration and premiumisation and branding and that takes a damn long time to build,” says an industry expert.

 

Another persistent concern is reaching consumers, especially in the US, which Alfa Romeo especially needs to crack if it is to stand any chance of success. Harald Wester, chief executive of Maserati, has said it would increase its dealerships worldwide to 425 by 2015, from 250 at the end of this year, but there is less confidence about Alfa Romeo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Fiat gets union agreement for layoff scheme at Melfi plant

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130125/ANE/301249696#ixzz2J0pjIBpm

 

Fiat has received trade unions' go-ahead for a layoff scheme at its Melfi plant in southern Italy that will allow it restructure the plant before producing a new Jeep and a Fiat model there.

 

Melfi, one of Fiat's most important facilities in Italy, makes the Punto model. Last December Fiat said it would invest 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to build a new entry-level Jeep and the Fiat 500X in Melfi starting in 2014.

 

[…]

 

The unions' approval, announced by union UGL in a statement, allows Fiat to press ahead with its plan to halt two production lines at the plant, starting from Feb. 11. The temporary layoff scheme can run until the end of 2014, but Fiat can restart production as soon as new lines are ready.

 

"Fiat said production could likely start at the end of 2013, early 2014," UGL's metalworkers regional secretary Giuseppe Giordano told Reuters after attending a meeting with Fiat.

 

On Jan. 15 Fiat said it wanted to continue producing the Punto at Melfi depending on market demand while investing in building two new models.

 

 

 

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Fiat gets union agreement for layoff scheme at Melfi plant

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130125/ANE/301249696#ixzz2J0pjIBpm

 

Fiat has received trade unions' go-ahead for a layoff scheme at its Melfi plant in southern Italy that will allow it restructure the plant before producing a new Jeep and a Fiat model there.

 

Melfi, one of Fiat's most important facilities in Italy, makes the Punto model. Last December Fiat said it would invest 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to build a new entry-level Jeep and the Fiat 500X in Melfi starting in 2014.

 

[…]

 

The unions' approval, announced by union UGL in a statement, allows Fiat to press ahead with its plan to halt two production lines at the plant, starting from Feb. 11. The temporary layoff scheme can run until the end of 2014, but Fiat can restart production as soon as new lines are ready.

 

"Fiat said production could likely start at the end of 2013, early 2014," UGL's metalworkers regional secretary Giuseppe Giordano told Reuters after attending a meeting with Fiat.

 

On Jan. 15 Fiat said it wanted to continue producing the Punto at Melfi depending on market demand while investing in building two new models.

 

Why do I have a feeling that the union president in Italy is easier and nicer to deal with than the one in Detroit? I read the book 'Once upon a car', and I feel it is a pain in the ass to deal with the union in Detroit.

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Also some Fiat shorts

 

Hedge Funds Jostling to Bet Against France's Peugeot

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Reuters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, January 25, 2013

 

Email this story  |  News Tracker  |  Reprints  |  Printable Version

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LONDON (Reuters)—Hedge fund short-sellers have hoovered up nearly all available shares in Peugeot in their scramble to bet the French carmaker will be an early victim in an industry struggling to overcome a collapse in European sales.

Peugeot is now one of the most in-demand stocks in Europe for short-selling by hedge funds, with 92 percent of shares available to borrow — the "lending pool" supplied by institutional investors — now out on loan, according to data group Markit.

 

Such has been hedge funds' rush for Peugeot stock that prime brokers, who provide finance and lend stock to hedge funds, have had to meet some demand from their own supplies. The Peugeot lending pool amounts to 12 percent of the carmaker's €2.17 billion ($2.92 billion) market capitalization. In total 18 percent of Peugeot stock is now out on loan.

 

Short-sellers include hedge fund Marshall Wace, which holds a net short position of 0.76 percent of the carmaker's total share capitalization. Odey Asset Management holds 2.66 percent, Egerton Capital 0.7 percent and D.E. Shaw 1.4 percent, according to according to the most recent disclosures.

 

"The majority of the (Peugeot) lending pool has been borrowed, by a mixture of directional and event-driven funds, at which point stability becomes a potential concern," said Duncan Wilson, head of equity finance sales trading at JPMorgan prime brokerage.

 

In an auto market where demand is close to a 20-year low — and still falling — Peugeot has been one of the hardest hit by Europe's debt crisis and the ensuing austerity measures curbing consumer spending. The region accounted for 59 percent of its sales volume in 2012.

 

Once a star French brand, Peugeot is struggling with excess production capacity and mounting losses compounded by the protracted sales slump. It is cutting 10,000 jobs and has already required a capital increase, a €7 billion government loan guarantee and €1.5 billion in asset sales over the past year to stay afloat.

 

Now hedge funds are betting it will have to raise more money or be further damaged by the dire economic climate. Short-selling means borrowing stocks in the hope the share price will fall and enable the fund to buy them back profitably at a lower value.

 

However, some funds could have so far lost money on their positions. Peugeot shares, which rose above €7 in September, dropped below €4.5 last month but have since recovered to more than €6 on Friday [Jan. 25] along with a broader market move.

 

No one from Peugeot was immediately available to comment on the short-selling positions.

 

European demand is set to shrink another 1.7 percent this year to 17.8 million light vehicles according to consulting firm LMC Automotive. By comparison, the U.S. market is set to grow 4.2 percent to 15.1 million vehicles.

 

"It's appalling. In Europe it's terrible," Savvas Savouri, chief economist at London-based hedge fund firm Toscafund, told Reuters. His firm's short positions include U.S. carmaker General Motors, on the grounds its large European operations counter its exposure to better conditions at home.

 

GM expects losses for its European operation, which consists mainly of Opel and U.K.-based Vauxhall, of between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion for 2012. GM took a 7 percent Peugeot stake in the French carmaker's March share issue.

 

After Peugeot, the other major European carmaker being targeted by hedge funds is Fiat. Levels of Fiat stock lending have more than doubled since the end of October — though some of this may have been driven by hedge funds borrowing the stock to give them the option to short, without actually placing the trade. Those levels fell back a little last month when Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne said it had no need for a capital increase.

 

Fiat, which is trying to counter grim European numbers by increasing sales of its luxury Alfa Romeo brand in the U.S. and boosting growth in Asia and Latin America, saw its shares drop from around €4.8 in mid-September to around €3.4 at the end of November. They have since recovered to around €4.5.

 

Funds with short positions on Fiat include Brookside Capital Management and Pelham Long Short Master fund, according to the website of Italian regulator Consob, while Highbridge Capital is shorting tire maker Pirelli.

 

One of the biggest Fiat bears has been Chris Cooper-Hohn, head of activist hedge fund firm TCI, although the firm's position has since been closed, a spokeswoman said on Friday.

 

In November Mr. Cooper-Hohn told a conference in London: "It is a bad company. People look at the net debt of €5 billion, ex-Chrysler. We think the gross debt is what matters ... we think it could be nearer to €20 billion. We think Fiat needs to do a rights issues as soon as possible."

 

In total stock lending for the Euro Stoxx 600 Autos and Comp index rose to 4.28 percent last week, up from 3.81 percent at the end of October, according to Markit.

 

Though U.S. and Asian automakers have so far attracted mainly long positions by hedge funds — Toyota in particular has been boosted by a fall in the yen, reducing the price of its exports — some believe the industry's wider woes could throw up further trades.

 

"In Japan there will be opportunities to short soon," Toscafund analyst Takis Christodoulopoulos said.

 

 

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jch548, most of these hedge funds merely do a pair trade. For example, long GM and short Fiat.

As David Einhorn said, he never does pair trades, because this would force him to long a long of 6 and 7 score longs, and short a lot of 3 and 4 score shorts.

Just because Fiat's short interest is high doesn't mean it is scored as 1 or 2. In fact I think with the robust US and Brazil market, it is actually a misunderstood stock that should be scored 8 or 9.

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everywhere i look in this burb i live in in california, i see fiat 500's.  not sure what's happening.  i believe thus far the fiat 500 has relatively low volume in america.  that said, it seems as if fiat's going to be building on this growth with the 500L and the 500L trekking in 2013.

 

 

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everywhere i look in this burb i live in in california, i see fiat 500's.  not sure what's happening.  i believe thus far the fiat 500 has relatively low volume in america.  that said, it seems as if fiat's going to be building on this growth with the 500L and the 500L trekking in 2013.

 

Same here. But we are in Cali. It is seeing a bunch of hybrids here but not so much in the middle of the county... we are not always representative for the rest of the country.

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everywhere i look in this burb i live in in california, i see fiat 500's.  not sure what's happening.  i believe thus far the fiat 500 has relatively low volume in america.  that said, it seems as if fiat's going to be building on this growth with the 500L and the 500L trekking in 2013.

 

Same here. But we are in Cali. It is seeing a bunch of hybrids here but not so much in the middle of the county... we are not always representative for the rest of the country.

 

Yeah I saw a bunch of Fiat 500 in Seattle area too.

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Same here. But we are in Cali. It is seeing a bunch of hybrids here but not so much in the middle of the county... we are not always representative for the rest of the country.

 

The new Ram will do OK in pickup country. Match made in heaven.

 

It certainly will.  And, btw, I'm in Texas.

 

More anecdotal evidence: I see a lot more new Jeeps on the road now, particularly the four door Wrangler. 

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Alfa Romeo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/marchionne-plots-alfa-romeo-suv-as-fiat-losses-mount.html

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130129/ANE/301299959#ixzz2JNdIiaLh

 

MILAN (Bloomberg) -- Fiat Group plans to introduce the first Alfa Romeo SUV in the latest effort to transform the languishing nameplate into a global luxury brand to challenge Audi.

 

The SUV is slated to hit showrooms in 2015, said three people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified before a public announcement of the vehicle. The car, one of nine new Alfa models due to be rolled out over the next four years, is aimed at helping reach the brand's goal of tripling sales by 2016.

 

Alfa, a symbol of Italian auto styling and performance for decades, is the centerpiece of Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne's strategy to end losses in Europe. Fiat's European turnaround plan calls for 16 upscale models to start production by 2016 at under-used assembly plants in Italy.

 

"Alfa is the only brand that can boost margins for the group," said Roberto Ferrari, owner of Fiat dealer Sprintauto, near Milan. If the right models get rolled out, "Alfa could become the Apple of the car industry. We just need our equivalent of the iPhone."

 

The new Alfa SUV, which could bolster a planned return to the United States this year after an absence of almost two decades, will be based on technology and parts used in the Dodge Dart, the people said. The model is set to be built at the Mirafiori plant near Fiat's headquarters in Turin, they added.

 

Alfa's image gives it potential to appeal to a global audience and charge higher prices for cars that share technology with mass-market models, lifting the group's profit like Audi does for Volkswagen

 

[…]

 

The SUV will face tough competition. BMW, which already has four SUVs, is developing the new X4. Mercedes-Benz is also planning a compact SUV to add to its lineup. At the upper end, VW's Lamborghini and Bentley are both developing SUVs.

 

[…]

 

Maserati and Chrysler's Jeep represent the other pillars of Marchionne's strategy to shift to higher-end cars. The goal is to reduce Fiat's reliance on Europe, where auto demand is headed for a sixth straight annual decline this year.

 

Total earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items, which Fiat calls trading profit, probably rose 57 percent to 3.75 billion euros on the first full year of contributions from Chrysler, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 analyst estimates. Intesa's Bosio estimates that 3.03 billion euros came from Chrysler, which Fiat controls.

 

Fiat shares have risen 25 percent this year, to 4.72 euros, giving the company a market value of 5.9 billion euros.

 

[…]

 

Alfa carries most of the weight of the turnaround, with the company planning to invest 1 billion euros from 2012 to 2014 to transform Alfa into a global premium brand. Fiat Group is aiming for deliveries of more than 300,000 vehicles from Alfa by 2016, compared with 50,000 Maseratis by 2015.

 

Alfa's potential is based on an image stemming from luxury cars in the 1930s and racing success in the 1950s. The brand became part of pop culture when Dustin Hoffman drove a Duetto Spider in the film "The Graduate" in the 1960s.

 

The reputation hasn't translated into commercial success. A lack of recent investment in new models and little exposure to markets outside Europe caused sales to slump to 101,000 vehicles last year, about half the 2001 peak. Audi, which makes three SUVs, sold 1.45 million autos last year.

 

The 4C sports car, which will go on sale in Europe and the United States this year, marks the start of "the resurrection of Alfa," Marchionne told reporters this month in Detroit. The next steps in Alfa's turnaround include a full-sized sedan based on the Maserati Ghibli and the mid-sized Giulia sedan and wagon, which could be built at Fiat's Cassino plant near Rome, two of the people said.

 

A new version of the roadster featured in "The Graduate" will be made in Japan starting in 2015 in a partnership with Mazda Motor Corp.

 

Alfa showed an SUV concept in 2003 that was never built, and since taking over Fiat in 2004, Marchionne has twice failed to meet targets of selling more than 300,000 Alfas annually. In 2007, he said the target could be met in 2010, while three years ago, he aimed to increase sales to about 400,000 in 2013. Marchionne's latest effort could again fall short.

 

Researcher IHS Automotive predicts Alfa sales will rise to 231,300 cars by 2016, 23 percent shy of the CEO's target. "You always have to take Marchionne's forecast with a pinch of salt," said Ian Fletcher, an IHS analyst in London. "He has to find customers who will decide to leave Audi, BMW or Mercedes to drive an Alfa, which is a tremendous brand but it has to prove it will offer a complete lineup."

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"Fiat has said it needs to fix its European business before finalizing a planned merger with Chrysler Group. "

 

Any thoughts on that, plan?

If it acquires Chrysler before fixing Europe, isn't it cheaper to do so? That would make Fiat's own EBITDA multiple to be compressed.

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