phil_Buffett Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yesssssss, finally!!!!!! :) :) :) :) :) :) 8) 8) 8) 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wonder if the self-funding will cause a ratings downgrade. Also, if my math is right, then Fiat is paying $6.4 billion? Interesting concession to VEBA to pay in $2.8 billion over four years. It does seem a little complicated. Here's the official press release: http://www.fiatspa.com/en-US/media_center/FiatDocuments/2014/Gennaio/Fiat_to_acquire_remaining_equity_interests_in_Chrysler_Group_LLC_from_VEBA_Trust.pdf Part 1: Distribution from Chrysler of $1.9b Part 2: Fiat pays $1.75b Part 3: Concession to pay four annual payments totaling $700m with the first being on closing Part 4: "As part of the transactions, FNA and the VEBA Trust will agree to dismiss with prejudice the current proceedings before the Delaware Court of Chancery with respect to the interpretation of the call option agreement pursuant to which Fiat has, through FNA, exercised three tranches of a call option to acquire membership interests in Chrysler Group held by the VEBA Trust. All of these membership interests will be acquired by FNA in connection with the transactions described above." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wonder if the self-funding will cause a ratings downgrade. Also, if my math is right, then Fiat is paying $6.4 billion? Interesting concession to VEBA to pay in $2.8 billion over four years. It looks like $700M in aggregate over 4 years, not $700M each year. So I see a total purchase price of $1.75b + 1.9b + 700m = $4.35b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Earlier than I was anticipating...maybe Mr. Marchionne wanted to start out the new year on the right foot! Deal seems pretty fair. I am happy they are paying under $5b. The extended payments of 700m also lightens the burden a bit as well...they can fund that from operations over the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4,35b$ is veryyy nice. and the best Thing is the only have to pay 3,6b$ now. as i mentioned in an earlier post, Sergio said in the last conference call from q3 that fiat will give out a new 5year plan in q1 2014. so iam very excited. finally they are one company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wonder if the self-funding will cause a ratings downgrade. Also, if my math is right, then Fiat is paying $6.4 billion? Interesting concession to VEBA to pay in $2.8 billion over four years. It looks like $700M in aggregate over 4 years, not $700M each year. So I see a total purchase price of $1.75b + 1.9b + 700m = $4.35b. That was my interpretation too: Fiat said it had also agreed on additional contributions by Chrysler to VEBA of $700m in four equal annual installments in return for a series of union commitments to support the Fiat-Chrysler alliance If it had said 4 installments of $700M, it would have meant 2.8B - by my interpretation. The language would have forgone the "equal" redundancy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I didn;t think they would be negotiating during the holidays. I didn't have a chance to load up even more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Complicated deal, but now that it's in place buy the dips!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 any dip ahead ? I somehow doubt I feel we will gap up tomorrow Complicated deal, but now that it's in place buy the dips!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd love a straight shot to $15, but I imagine after a gap up there will be some dips available to buy more. Not as absolutely cheap after a gap up, but now that uncertainty is lifted, the probability of a $15 or $20 stock price is much higher. Had Chrysler IPOed and then fiat buy it out, IMO it would have taken longer to get to $15 or $20, if ever. Much like BACs initial move from $5 to $9 - it eventually consolidated back down to $7 :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The way Marchionne has played this poker game is simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwedishValue Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in the markets. Does anyone here have an opinion of the value created by the deal? Have not been looking into FIAT yet but it is very high on my to do list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The way Marchionne has played this poker game is simply amazing. General Motors stake in Fiat, Fiat entry in Chrysler, closing of plants in Italy, Veba sale. The story always ends the same: Sergio wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in the markets. Does anyone here have an opinion of the value created by the deal? Have not been looking into FIAT yet but it is very high on my to do list. Marchionne can play a truly global game now. He can move capacity around the world, opportunistically. It gives him a stronger hand within Europe. He is already consolidating the manufacturing base on which Chrysler and Fiat produce. It will give him full access to Chrysler's balance sheet/cash flow. He can build out from Brazil with more resources at his fingertips. And he got the deal done for a relatively good price. Really good business decisions on his part...Fiat is lucky to have him! I would suggest listening to his conference call from about a month ago to get a glimpse into his character and intelligence, when you go about evaluating him as a CEO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Did anyone calculate that after this deal and the transfer of the health care liability , what's the leverage level of the new Fiat ? Really the only concern left compared with other large producers like GM. But the leverage is also the source of the extra return potential Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in the markets. Does anyone here have an opinion of the value created by the deal? Have not been looking into FIAT yet but it is very high on my to do list. Marchionne can play a truly global game now. He can move capacity around the world, opportunistically. It gives him a stronger hand within Europe. He is already consolidating the manufacturing base on which Chrysler and Fiat produce. It will give him full access to Chrysler's balance sheet/cash flow. He can build out from Brazil with more resources at his fingertips. And he got the deal done for a relatively good price. Really good business decisions on his part...Fiat is lucky to have him! I would suggest listening to his conference call from about a month ago to get a glimpse into his character and intelligence, when you go about evaluating him as a CEO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Great deal. I'm excited :D. I'm curious to see the magnitude of the market's reaction both tomorrow and over the coming weeks/months. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 man, i was looking at fiaty the past few days (have been slow due to the holidays), planning on initiate a decent position this coming week :( hy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not sure if you guys noticed this from wsj: " Even with the deal, Fiat still won't have free access to Chrysler's cash because of restrictions on the U.S. auto maker's debt agreements. At the end of the third quarter, Chrysler had $11.5 billion in cash. " man, i was looking at fiaty the past few days (have been slow due to the holidays), planning on initiate a decent position this coming week :( hy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 But they did have access to enough cash to pay for the deal and not have to issue equity (which I think was the primary near-term need for cash). Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I wonder if the self-funding will cause a ratings downgrade. Also, if my math is right, then Fiat is paying $6.4 billion? Interesting concession to VEBA to pay in $2.8 billion over four years. It looks like $700M in aggregate over 4 years, not $700M each year. So I see a total purchase price of $1.75b + 1.9b + 700m = $4.35b. That was my interpretation too: Fiat said it had also agreed on additional contributions by Chrysler to VEBA of $700m in four equal annual installments in return for a series of union commitments to support the Fiat-Chrysler alliance If it had said 4 installments of $700M, it would have meant 2.8B - by my interpretation. The language would have forgone the "equal" redundancy... Yup. I misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Good find, plato. I wonder if anything can be done now to access that cash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirect Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Fiat at 6.68 currently at Milan up 12% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In our Industrials Observer report published December 16, we said that Fiat would pay EUR 3.2 billion for the rest of Chrysler. At the current exchange rate of USD 1.3738 to EUR 1, USD 4.35 billion is EUR 3.166 billion. The final consideration is not what the union said it expected to get from an IPO--more than USD 5.0 billion. We do not anticipate any change to our EUR 14 fair value estimate for Fiat shares since we hit the valuation nail squarely on the head. However, there could be a slight upward bias because we included the assumption the deal would be closed by the end of the second quarter. With the deal closing possibly on Jan. 20, nearly two quarters of Chrysler earnings at 100% of ownership are not accounted for in our fair value estimate. But since the incremental earnings are in the first part of our five-year DCF, we expect the upward bias on our EUR 14 fair value estimate to be minimal. Still, the 5-star rated shares represent exceptional value for those investors who are willing to accept the risk of a highly-levered turnaround situation in a cyclical, capital intensive, globally competitive industry. The deal is funded by Chrysler paying a USD 1.9 billion dividend to its equity holders--the VEBA and Fiat. Fiat takes its share of the dividend and uses it in the transaction. Fiat also takes $1.75 billion from its coffers to pay for the deal. That brings the total up to $3.65 billion for the Chrysler shares held by the VEBA. However, Fiat also committed to USD 700 million in additional VEBA funding (which brings the total to USD 4.35 billion). The USD 700 million gets paid in four annual installments. The first installment is paid at the close of the transaction to buy the Chrysler shares from the VEBA. As a result, Fiat takes a total USD 1.925 billion out of its cash account at closing. There will be three more installments of USD 175 million each of the next three years on the anniversary of the closing date. Overall, this looks like a fair deal for the union and a reasonable valuation on Chrysler. We applaud Fiat management for remaining constant in the face of union pressure for a higher price. Some will say that Fiat got a really great deal because it values the shares at USD 3.65 billion and it values Chrysler at a total enterprise value of USD 21.6 billion, for a 3.8x estimated EBITDA multiple. In our opinion, the deal values the shares at USD 4.35 billion because the UAW wouldn’t have agreed to a transaction without the additional USD 700 million funding for the VEBA. In our view, Fiat pays USD 3.825 at closing (including the first $175 million installment) and gives the VEBA a 0% note for USD 525 million payable in three equal annual installments of USD 175 million. That makes Chrysler’s total enterprise value USD 23.3 billion at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.1x (not including a three-year present value calculation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skanjete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Brilliant deal for Fiat and Marchionne. Now we can wait until the Chrysler stake is being valued correctly by the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Brilliant deal for Fiat and Marchionne. Now we can wait until the Chrysler stake is being valued correctly by the market. It won´t happen overnight and there will likely be opportunities along the way. Judging by the CNHI experience, they might incorporate FIAT in the Netherlands, move the listing to NYSE and then refi some of the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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