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FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles


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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e42a07f8-779e-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html

 

Interesting take in the FT on Sergio and Fiat.

 

any summary for the lowly non-subscribers?

 

A way around this problem is to do the following:

Copy article link address -> go to google.com -> paste article address into search field -> the first search result should be the article on FT -> enjoy

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I didn't check the exact numbers but yes, FIAT trades at a very low EV/EBITDA multiple. However, depreciation is a very real cost for any car manufacturer. Do as you would with any other business and try to estimate the FCF or Owner Earnings of the company going forward and you will get a much more reasonable (but in this case probably still cheap) multiple.

isnt the thesis here, that if new car sales start to go up, they will generate more FCF then earnings?

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Hi yada, we share a similar background! And yes, that would be part of my thesis if I happen to buy. Another part of the thesis is that you have a LOT of valuable assets within Fiat that as a sum of the parts basis trades at a discount to market value. Third one could possibly be if we expect capex to decrease in the near-term as refurnishments of the product portfolio and uppgrading of Chrysler facilities have allready taken place... The two first thesises i am confortable with now, but I need to understand whether t.3 makes sense before maybe buying.

 

In the end it all boils down to FCF.. I have this inprint in my head that car manufacturing is a lousy business in general, but I guess the industry is quite different now compared to before all the restructuring.

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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e42a07f8-779e-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html

 

Interesting take in the FT on Sergio and Fiat.

 

any summary for the lowly non-subscribers?

 

A way around this problem is to do the following:

Copy article link address -> go to google.com -> paste article address into search field -> the first search result should be the article on FT -> enjoy

 

Ah thanks, I didn't realize that worked for ft too.

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Ex poker player as well? Anyway, I have yet to do serious reading on this. Dont have much time atm. But it seems to me that the FCF argument is based on the replacement cycle. Average age of cars on the road is at all time highs. So pent up demand is what makes this a buy. Even if the age goes up even further and nto much happens in the next 2 years, some day people will have to buy new cars. Same reason I bought ACW. Except there you have the same story with trucks.

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Has anyone here thought about/traded this through options - I see there are some 2017 calls available trading in Frankfurt and Stuttgart and also a  lot of warrants (all on IB)? Anyone has any experience using these exchanges/products through IB?

 

Thank you - C.

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Has anyone here thought about/traded this through options - I see there are some 2017 calls available trading in Frankfurt and Stuttgart and also a  lot of warrants (all on IB)? Anyone has any experience using these exchanges/products through IB?

 

Thank you - C.

 

Interesting. I would assume these are european style options (only exercisable at expiration)? One of the things I was looking forward to in regards to an NYSE listing was the possibility of american style LEAPs.

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Has anyone here thought about/traded this through options - I see there are some 2017 calls available trading in Frankfurt and Stuttgart and also a  lot of warrants (all on IB)? Anyone has any experience using these exchanges/products through IB?

 

Thank you - C.

 

Interesting. I would assume these are european style options (only exercisable at expiration)? One of the things I was looking forward to in regards to an NYSE listing was the possibility of american style LEAPs.

 

According to Reuters article, listing not expected till early 2015...

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I just finished reading "Mondo Agnelli".

I learned more from "Once upon a car", but "Mondo Agnelli" gives some more background information on FIAT, the Agnelli family, the culture, and especially the figure of Marchionne.

The more I read about him, the more impressed I get.

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Has anyone here thought about/traded this through options - I see there are some 2017 calls available trading in Frankfurt and Stuttgart and also a  lot of warrants (all on IB)? Anyone has any experience using these exchanges/products through IB?

 

Thank you - C.

 

Interesting. I would assume these are european style options (only exercisable at expiration)? One of the things I was looking forward to in regards to an NYSE listing was the possibility of american style LEAPs.

 

According to Reuters article, listing not expected till early 2015...

 

Yeah I noticed that. I was hoping like the Chrysler deal completion that the NYSE listing happens faster than expected. But I guess we shall see, if it takes till 2015 then likely wont be as attractive as they would be now.

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Not really - seems that some are American style. I was poking around the website of the Stuttgart exchange yesterday and I think I saw some options or warrants listed by Societe Generale that were American exercise (for Fiat). In any event - I think unless you really want to exercise early then European/American shouldn't matter too much to you as the option is basically a leveraged long on the stock one way or the other and both styles should behave similarly (especially this far out).

 

Cheers - C.

 

Has anyone here thought about/traded this through options - I see there are some 2017 calls available trading in Frankfurt and Stuttgart and also a  lot of warrants (all on IB)? Anyone has any experience using these exchanges/products through IB?

 

Thank you - C.

 

Interesting. I would assume these are european style options (only exercisable at expiration)? One of the things I was looking forward to in regards to an NYSE listing was the possibility of american style LEAPs.

 

According to Reuters article, listing not expected till early 2015...

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Enjoy (in Italian)

 

thanks Paolo. for all of you that dont speak italian here in this link are some Points from the interview in english.

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20140110/COPY01/301109966/fiat-may-issue-bond-to-boost-liquidity-after-chrysler-merger#axzz2pvmo5plG

 

Sergio make great comments for me.

 

"A capital hike [at Fiat] would be value destructive. There are different ways to finance investments … a convertible bond could be an appropriate solution,"

 

Marchionne told La Repubblica: "We will have a new plan and new models we announce in April. At that time, we will see where our debt level is. I'm not worried [by the debt] at all."

 

 

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Fiat Likely to Seek Fresh Financing

Investment Needed to Kick-Start New Industrial Plan

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303393804579312172301096660

 

Fiat said it could raise the money through a convertible bond, although it ruled out a capital increase. Analysts say the car maker, which becomes the world's seventh largest with Chrysler, could raise at least €1 billion ($1.36 billion)
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Fiat Likely to Seek Fresh Financing

Investment Needed to Kick-Start New Industrial Plan

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303393804579312172301096660

 

Fiat said it could raise the money through a convertible bond, although it ruled out a capital increase. Analysts say the car maker, which becomes the world's seventh largest with Chrysler, could raise at least €1 billion ($1.36 billion)

 

 

Fiat will build new models for Alfa Romeo in Italy as part of a strategy to use up excess production capacity in its home country by making cars for premium brands for export. This is being closely watched by unions and politicians because of the large number of jobs involved. Fiat has already assigned new money and models to most of its plants, but the plan to be presented in April will provide even more detail. Fiat is operating at less than 50% capacity in Italy.

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