TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I was also wondering what to do with the Ferrari shares. They will trade at a rich multiple for sure, but the long term prospect is also good. Bill Ackman invested in Burger King at a rich multiple and still did pretty well. I don't doubt that holders of Ferrari will likely do alright going forward. Holders of FIAT will likely do much better, which is why I'm happy to trade a rich multiple for a cheap multiple if that does end up being the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Took me a while to find the Ferrari IPO docs: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1648416/000164841615000004/0001648416-15-000004-index.htm (Has pretty good Ferrari pics, btw!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Fiat Chrysler Faces Record $105 Million Fine for Recall Lapses NHTSA action covers nearly two dozen recalls affecting more than 11 million vehicles http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-close-to-hitting-fiat-chrysler-with-record-105-million-fine-for-recall-lapses-1437874509 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lu_hawk Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems all the headlines include the $105mm fine, but isn't the estimated $3.5bn cost of buying back vehicles the real news here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems all the headlines include the $105mm fine, but isn't the estimated $3.5bn cost of buying back vehicles the real news here? $3.5b potential capital outlay where the vehicles can be fixed and resold and mgmt stated ~60% have already been fixed so much lower than 3.5b. We'll see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Took me a while to find the Ferrari IPO docs: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1648416/000164841615000004/0001648416-15-000004-index.htm (Has pretty good Ferrari pics, btw!) I wonder if I should hold or sell the Ferrari shares when I get them. They are providing engines for Maserati and Alfa Romeo, so if Alfa becomes successful, it could be a huge profit boost to Ferrari. 20-30x EPS seems very rich valuation, but I don't expect Ferrari to trade at 10x EPS at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr33ngi4nt Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems all the headlines include the $105mm fine, but isn't the estimated $3.5bn cost of buying back vehicles the real news here? $3.5b potential capital outlay where the vehicles can be fixed and resold and mgmt stated ~60% have already been fixed so much lower than 3.5b. We'll see how it works out. Market seems to have fully priced this in. Change in mkt cap equates to ~$1.4 bln (3.5*(1-.6)), which is the remainder of the exposure. As mentioned above, these vehicles can be fixed and resold so realistically I would expect the final number to be much smaller than ~$1.4 bln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems all the headlines include the $105mm fine, but isn't the estimated $3.5bn cost of buying back vehicles the real news here? $3.5b potential capital outlay where the vehicles can be fixed and resold and mgmt stated ~60% have already been fixed so much lower than 3.5b. We'll see how it works out. Market seems to have fully priced this in. Change in mkt cap equates to ~$1.4 bln (3.5*(1-.6)), which is the remainder of the exposure. As mentioned above, these vehicles can be fixed and resold so realistically I would expect the final number to be much smaller than ~$1.4 bln. I see several considerations: - The buyback price on the RAM trucks. One news article says the buyback price would be "the original cost minus depreciation" while another says it would be "above market price". I wonder how will they come up with a "market price" since presumably the market price has just dropped over this news on the affected vehicles given the upcoming wave of repurchased vehicles. - On the other hand, FCA can resell their repurchased vehicles after repairs so the loss on each vehicle is not $20k but more like a few k. Further, there's a decent chance that people who trade in their trucks would buy new ones from the same dealer, so that offsets some losses. In fact, I read an article that quoted dealers love recalls because that gets people to step in the door which is the most difficult part of making a sale. - Trade-ins. Some vehicles (older Jeeps) would have a mandatory trade-in. This is again a business opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 The Four Things Ferrari Must Do to Impress Wall Street http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/the-four-things-ferrari-must-do-to-impress-wall-street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 More on the recalls: http://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/media_center/fca_press_release/FiatDocuments/2015/july/FCA_US_reaches_consensual_resolution_of_NHTSA_investigation_on_23_recall_campaigns.pdf "FCA US will offer to owners whose vehicles have not yet been remedied, as an alternative remedy, to repurchase those vehicles at a price equal to the original purchase price less a reasonable allowance for depreciation plus ten percent..... As of this date, repairs have been completed on well over 60% of the subject vehicles, leaving less than two hundred thousand eligible vehicles..... FCA US does not expect that the net cost of providing these additional alternatives will be material to its financial position, liquidity or results of operations" http://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/media_center/fca_press_release/FiatDocuments/2015/july/FCA_Clarifies_Scope_of_Remedies_in_NHTSA_Consent_Order.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/fiat-chrysler-raises-profit-forecast-as-jeep-suv-deliveries-jump http://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/media_center/fca_press_release/FiatDocuments/2015/july/FCA_BOARD_OF_DIRECTORS_MEETING_2015_SECOND_QUARTER_RESULTS.pdf very desperate indeed ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? All depends on the price it trades at. Where did you get the $5000 per engine figure? Also, if a car company traded at a 15x multiple - I'd definitely consider selling. I know that it's a "luxury goods" company and is more stable than other traditional car companies, but 15x would still seem steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? All depends on the price it trades at. Where did you get the $5000 per engine figure? Also, if a car company traded at a 15x multiple - I'd definitely consider selling. I know that it's a "luxury goods" company and is more stable than other traditional car companies, but 15x would still seem steep. Just some random assumptions. Ferrari builds really good engines and are supposed to charge a premium. I know BMW 328 engines can cost 20k to replace, so I assume Ferrari's engine would be more than that. Assuming a 20% profit margin, that would be $5k per engine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I keep my Ferrari shares for my grandkids! (or to negotiate a better price at the dealership) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Don't know if you all saw this: http://www.autonews.com/article/20150803/INDUSTRY_ON_TRIAL/308039971/six-superstars-ponder-the-future-of-an-irrational-auto-industry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? All depends on the price it trades at. Where did you get the $5000 per engine figure? Also, if a car company traded at a 15x multiple - I'd definitely consider selling. I know that it's a "luxury goods" company and is more stable than other traditional car companies, but 15x would still seem steep. Just some random assumptions. Ferrari builds really good engines and are supposed to charge a premium. I know BMW 328 engines can cost 20k to replace, so I assume Ferrari's engine would be more than that. Assuming a 20% profit margin, that would be $5k per engine. I don't know where you got your numbers, but a new BMW N52 engine (the one in the 328) goes for about 10K. Secondly, you don't get a 20% margin on building engines. Lastly given that Ferrari engines require a major overhaul (close to a rebuilt) every 5,000 km. That's not exactly something I would characterize as "good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? All depends on the price it trades at. Where did you get the $5000 per engine figure? Also, if a car company traded at a 15x multiple - I'd definitely consider selling. I know that it's a "luxury goods" company and is more stable than other traditional car companies, but 15x would still seem steep. Just some random assumptions. Ferrari builds really good engines and are supposed to charge a premium. I know BMW 328 engines can cost 20k to replace, so I assume Ferrari's engine would be more than that. Assuming a 20% profit margin, that would be $5k per engine. I don't know where you got your numbers, but a new BMW N52 engine (the one in the 328) goes for about 10K. Secondly, you don't get a 20% margin on building engines. Lastly given that Ferrari engines require a major overhaul (close to a rebuilt) every 5,000 km. That's not exactly something I would characterize as "good". Does Alfa Romeo 4C and Maserati models need a major engine rebuild every 5000 km? That would make it very hard to sell to ordinary people. ::) Probably the labor cost of that bmw engine replacement is 10k and the engine itself is 10k. I talked to a bmw dealer before. Replacing the engine costs 20k. Thanks for the reminder on this though. I will look more into this to see what the true economic value of this Ferrari engine business is. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Ferrari provides engines to Maserati and Alfa. Assuming Ferrari makes $5000 per engine on Alfa and Alfa indeed increased the production to 300,000 in 2018, that's 1.5 bn profit per year. Then that business along, assuming a 15x multiple, would be worth 22 bn. Sounds like a good call option on additional Ferrari upside, if the IPO launches at $11 bn? :) How many of you guys decide to sell Ferrari shares to buy more FCAU shares after IPO? It seems to me that holding the Ferrari shares isn't too bad? All depends on the price it trades at. Where did you get the $5000 per engine figure? Also, if a car company traded at a 15x multiple - I'd definitely consider selling. I know that it's a "luxury goods" company and is more stable than other traditional car companies, but 15x would still seem steep. Just some random assumptions. Ferrari builds really good engines and are supposed to charge a premium. I know BMW 328 engines can cost 20k to replace, so I assume Ferrari's engine would be more than that. Assuming a 20% profit margin, that would be $5k per engine. Lastly given that Ferrari engines require a major overhaul (close to a rebuilt) every 5,000 km. That's not exactly something I would characterize as "good". Is that just for the racing engines or do you mean the road versions as well? I'm not disputing since you sound like you know first hand haha - but I just think it would be cumbersome to have to service a GT car like the California in such a way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 The 5,000 km overhaul is the standard for Ferrari not just for racing engines. I'm don't know if it's just a cash grab by the company to sell parts or if it's really needed. My personal opinion is that you can't really destroy an engine in 5,000 km. But that's what they ask for and owners mostly comply. That's why people don't really drive the Ferraris they own. If you looked at used Ferraris for sale they're pretty much 7-8 years old and have 20-30,000 Km. That's not a lot of touring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compounding Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Does Ferrari really manufacture engines for Alfa the same way as they do for Maserati? There was no mention in the filing about any such agreement. And I have to ask, any source on the 5000 km claim for Ferrari engines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccap Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I will confess to being a former Ferrari owner. The engine question is legit. Some Ferrari engines are very robust, while others are a real POS. For instance, try finding an F355 that has never had the head pulled that has more than 20k miles. You can't. They all have springs break and bend valves within the first 20k miles. From what I remember, they are only putting their more robust engine in the Maserati. I think the success and profitability of the Alfa effort for Ferrari will depend on the quality of the engine they supply. I'm certain that it will drive great, but how much of a pain will it be to live with? It may be as reliable as a Subaru, or it may have gremlins. It all depends on how much they spend testing before deploying. Given the quality statistics on Fiat, Chrysler, and Ferrari, I don't think extensive testing and revision is guaranteed. Does anyone know how engine warranty work will be billed back to Ferrari? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Video from greenwood Investors Fiat Chrysler (FCA IM): Buckle Up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I recently sensed that Fiat is a very, very crowded name among event-driven HFs, based on the classic "SOTP + pricing catalyst from Ferrari IPO" story with a bit of "Sergio magic" thrown in for good measure. The market is wise to the story. On that basis, I sold and am now out of Fiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smathew Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Fiat adwcapital presentation https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/65789707/ADW%20Capital%20Management%20Fiat_Ferrari%20Investment.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now